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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Repay Holdings Corporation (XNAS:RPAY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RPAY
Name:
REPAY HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:RPAY)
Sector:
6.19M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. John Andrew Morris Sr.
Total Employees:
552
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -96.19% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF REPAY HOLDINGS CORPORATION(RPAY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.4
One Month Price Target:
$9.44
Six Month Price Target :
$9.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.89
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.34
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.46
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.71
This week:
$7.85
This month :
$6.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
917.75M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
99.22M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.37%
-21.88%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.61
$11.15
$6.19
$7.65
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.68
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.37
$8.12
$8.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RPAY
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.28%
Comparison:
RPAY, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -117.03% lower than the industry
& is -112.22% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RPAY
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
-0.01%
Monthly returns:
-0.02%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -101.89% below industry average
Classification:
RPAY, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
RPAY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.58%
Weekly Volatility:
8.01%
Monthly Volatility:
16.03%
Yearly Volatility:
55.52%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.55% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.36%
Weekly VaR:
-16.46%
Monthly VaR:
-32.92%
How Much Can the price of
RPAY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.66
This translates to price declining to:
$1.41
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RPAY is a 132.37% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 99.07% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.57% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RPAY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.77
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.836
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.182
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.602
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.113
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.937
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.122
Beta is -31.21% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -30.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.087
Alpha is -340.73% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -554% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RPAY
Equity cost of capital:
0.084
Equity cost of capital is -21.62% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.76%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.60%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.60%
WACC is -16.80% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.41
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.01
-
EPS:
-$0.28
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.40
-
-
Debt per share
$4.63
EBITDA per share
$0.63
Valuation Analysis Today of
RPAY
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
65.59
-
-
RPAY is -151.46% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.9
Price to sales ratio is -64.51% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.01
Price to free cash flow: 23.43
Price to free cash flow ratio is 31.01% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-100.00%
Net income growth rate is -101.18% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
51.63%
Net debt to equity ratio:
44.54%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
23.74%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -60.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.92
Interest coverage ratio is -108.49% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
87.94%
Annual debt growth is -18% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.544
Statistical significance of correlation:
RPAY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is 13.49% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.099
Kurtosis
6.59
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.567
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RPAY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
300%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-21.78%
Operating profit margin is 83.49% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
300%
Effective Tax Rate:
45.37%
Effective tax rate is 44.84% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is -102.17% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is -67.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.35
Current ratio is -42.06% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-76.8
Cash conversion cycle is -168.20% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-14.99%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
433.5K
Each employee generates 10% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
113.1K
Each employee generates 73% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 37.4K
Each employee generates -278% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.2K
Each employee generates -43% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.8M
Each employee generates -43% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RPAY
OSI SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:OSIS)
SYKE
BOTTOMLINE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:EPAY)
Sumo Logic Inc (XNAS:SUMO)
GOPRO, INC (XNAS:GPRO)
NANO DIMENSION LTD (XNAS:NNDM)
INFINERA CORPORATION (XNAS:INFN)
SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC. (XNAS:SMCI)
Canaan Inc (XNAS:CAN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
239.30M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
59.57M
179.73M
-
-
128.88M
-
100.49M
229.37M
-
3.48M
100.49M
62.43M
- 52114.47K
- 20636.73K
- 46075.86K
- 20906.84K
- 20636.73K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
28.59M
Differed Income Tax :
3.84M
Stock Based Compensation :
3.09M
Change in Working Capital :
- 7840.71K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1076.26K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 26816.82K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
13.75M
Investments in PP&E:
- 553.22K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
65.32M
-
65.32M
34.31M
-
12.79M
112.42M
15.32M
824.09M
556.63M
-
141.40M
18.01M
1.56B
-
1.67B
21.74M
2.23M
-
-
59.38M
83.34M
459.07M
198.14M
657.21M
-
740.56M
8.88K
- 212362.34K
- 2.2K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
288.94M
889.08M
1.63B
-
461.30M
396.0M
-
- 7013.12K
- 7566.34K
-
-
-
-
- 1698.43K
- 1698.43K
-
4.49M
80.83M
76.34M
13.75M
- 7566.34K
6.19M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RPAY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.94
$4.92
$5.18
$5.45
$5.73