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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Renewable Energy Group, Inc. (XNAS:REGI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
REGI
Name:
RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:REGI)
Sector:
- 165052.00K
Industry:
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
CEO:
Ms. Cynthia Warner
Total Employees:
1,196
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -52.59% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP, INC.(REGI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
61.45
One Month Price Target:
$61.65
Six Month Price Target :
$62.65
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$63.84
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$61.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$62.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$55.3
This week:
$47.7
This month :
$33.95
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.11B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
50.51M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
46.83%
-26.6%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$89.93
$76.54
$32.97
$46.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$72.18
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$69.32
$50.68
$53.58
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
REGI
Sharpe Ratio:
6.18%
Comparison:
REGI, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 84.52% higher than the industry
& ratio is 171.19% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
REGI
Daily returns:
0.32%
Weekly returns:
1.60%
Monthly returns:
6.39%
Yearly returns:
39.76%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 92.95% above industry average
Classification:
REGI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
REGI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.03%
Weekly Volatility:
11.24%
Monthly Volatility:
22.49%
Yearly Volatility:
77.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.01%
Weekly VaR:
-22.38%
Monthly VaR:
-44.75%
How Much Can the price of
REGI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$39.39
This translates to price declining to:
$9.22
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
REGI is a 215.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 170.59% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 22.21% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
REGI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.58
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.558
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.79
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.425
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.083
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.116
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
27.759
Beta is -97.91% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.405
Beta is -58.77% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.87%
Sustainable growth rate is -91.25% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.696
Alpha is 157.92% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4430% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
REGI
Equity cost of capital:
0.071
Equity cost of capital is -44.28% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.22%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.52%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.78%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.78%
WACC is -39.02% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$72.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.79
Annual revenue growth rate is 222.92% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-22.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 133.12% higher than the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$11.44
EBITDA per share
$4.45
Valuation Analysis Today of
REGI
P/E Ratio:
16.48
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.41
P/E ratio is -32.47% lower than main peers & is 25.80% higher than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.85
Price to sales ratio is -44.36% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.79
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-29.87%
Net income growth rate is -108.47% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
33.34%
Net debt to equity ratio:
14.45%
Debt to assets ratio:
22.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
9.53%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -58.65% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.78
Interest coverage ratio is 541.19% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
802.39%
Annual debt growth is 555% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.423
Statistical significance of correlation:
REGI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is -18.34% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.043
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.129
Kurtosis
21.02
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.2
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
REGI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
41%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.49%
Operating profit margin is -546.72% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
41%
Effective Tax Rate:
-9.16%
Effective tax rate is -178.02% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.78%
Return on equity (ROE) is -90.43% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is 56.22% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
5.14
Current ratio is 61.68% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
24.5
Cash conversion cycle is 12.79% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 32.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
3.0M
Each employee generates -27% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
187.8K
Each employee generates -34% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
156.3K
Each employee generates 4% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 138.0K
Each employee generates 925% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
872.8K
Each employee generates 925% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
REGI
PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:PTEN)
VIPER ENERGY PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:VNOM)
CHORD ENERGY CORPORATION (XNAS:CHRD)
WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:WFRD)
ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:ARLP)
HIGHPEAK ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:HPK)
XOG
TELLURIAN INC. (XNYS:TELL)
CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP. (XNAS:CLNE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.64B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.28B
363.84M
-
-
158.05M
-
-
158.05M
755.00K
20.83M
32.52M
224.65M
199.91M
186.99M
171.38M
- 15691.00K
186.99M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.50M
Differed Income Tax :
806.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.26M
Change in Working Capital :
- 140840.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 52339.00K
Other Working Capital:
10.03M
Other Non-Cash Items:
8.29M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 106518.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 58534.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 53257.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
340.70M
342.57M
683.28M
212.58M
550.61M
137.66M
1.58B
781.23M
40.07M
52.03M
104.13M
5.51M
60.95M
1.04B
-
2.63B
221.98M
13.22M
-
26.89M
46.00M
308.09M
578.05M
4.03M
585.98M
-
894.07M
-
1.12M
-
1.73B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.43B
1.73B
2.63B
446.70M
591.27M
250.6M
62.18M
3.48M
- 46123.00K
-
-
-
-
- 5327.00K
- 5327.00K
- 200.00K
- 158168.00K
343.70M
501.87M
- 106518.00K
- 58534.00K
- 165052.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
REGI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.88
$49.74
$51.68
$53.69
$55.78