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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Regions Financial Corporation (XNYS:RF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RF
Name:
REGIONS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:RF)
Sector:
584.00M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. John Turner
Total Employees:
19,673
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 71.71% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF REGIONS FINANCIAL CORPORATION(RF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
21.28
One Month Price Target:
$21.43
Six Month Price Target :
$22.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.1
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$21.18
Price Upper limit ($) :
$21.41
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$19.91
This week:
$18.21
This month :
$15.15
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
19.63B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
934.40M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.63%
-19.34%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.64
$24.71
$14.92
$17.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$23.75
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.13
$18.80
$19.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RF
Sharpe Ratio:
2.39%
Comparison:
RF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 94.85% higher than the industry
& ratio is 5.02% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RF
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.42%
Monthly returns:
1.70%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 86.88% above industry average
Classification:
RF, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
RF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.18%
Weekly Volatility:
7.11%
Monthly Volatility:
14.22%
Yearly Volatility:
49.26%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.56%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.41% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.45%
Weekly VaR:
-14.41%
Monthly VaR:
-28.82%
How Much Can the price of
RF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.06
This translates to price declining to:
$3.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RF is a 103.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 74.29% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 11.31% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.898
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.27
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.151
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.944
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.057
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.246
Beta is 2.36% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 32.37% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.43%
Sustainable growth rate is 14.22% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.085
Alpha is 632.88% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 541% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RF
Equity cost of capital:
0.119
Equity cost of capital is 21.91% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.74%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.33%
Overall debt rating:
Lowest medium B grade (second lowest)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.33%
WACC is 2.66% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.17
Annual revenue growth rate is -11.97% below industry average
EPS:
$2.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
18.14%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 50.91% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.02
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 35.58%
Equity growth rate per share is -8.10% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.51
EBITDA per share
$3.86
Valuation Analysis Today of
RF
P/E Ratio:
9.56
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.89
P/E ratio is -3.29% lower than main peers & is -22.92% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $29.90
RF is -28.84% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $18.40
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.29
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.42
Price to sales ratio is -20.13% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.17
Price to free cash flow: 7.05
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
64.92%
Net income growth rate is 17.88% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.70%
Dividend yeild: 3.20%
Previous Dividend: $0.17
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.17
Previous Dividend: $0.68
Expected next dividend best case: $0.18
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.16
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.97%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.17
2021-12-02--$0.17
2021-06-03--$0.16
2022-03-10--$0.17
2021-09-02--$0.17
2021-03-04--$0.16
Dividend growth rate is -95.88% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
13.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-150.76%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.43%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-15.60%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.14% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
22.81
Interest coverage ratio is 2652.15% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-32.56%
Annual debt growth is -10381% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.689
Statistical significance of correlation:
RF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 37.53% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.062
Kurtosis
6.485
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.204
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.58%
Effective tax rate is 0.17% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is 18.62% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is -36.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
295.9K
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
183.2K
Each employee generates -19% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
122.1K
Each employee generates -14% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
29.7K
Each employee generates -64% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
398.2K
Each employee generates -64% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RF
CAPSTONE COPPER CORP (XTSE:CS)
THE HARTFORD FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNYS:HIG)
KEYCORP (XNYS:KEY)
M&T BANK CORPORATION (XNYS:MTB)
RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:RJF)
ORIX CORPORATION (XNYS:IX)
STT-PG
SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL (XNYS:SYF)
STT-PD
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�79%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.82B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
1.68B
1.77B
84.00M
-
-
4.12B
158.00M
375.00M
3.60B
-
2.40B
3.10B
668.00M
2.40B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
105.00M
Differed Income Tax :
73.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 142000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
584.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 4359000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
27.95B
29.38B
57.33B
329.00M
-
-
57.66B
1.79B
5.75B
292.00M
-
-
-
7.83B
114.26B
164.08B
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.34B
-
2.34B
149.44B
147.10B
-
5.92B
- 1214000.0K
12.28B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
16.98B
164.08B
-
2.34B
- 25602000.0K
2.37B
- 1608000.00K
- 3599000.00K
-
-
- 215000.00K
- 161000.00K
1.93B
1.55B
-
- 1466000.00K
27.95B
29.41B
584.00M
-
584.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.29
$30.71
$33.34
$36.20
$39.30