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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Regency Centers Corporation (XNAS:REG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
REG
Name:
REGENCY CENTERS CORPORATION (XNAS:REG)
Sector:
142.89M
Industry:
REIT�Retail
CEO:
Ms. Lisa Palmer
Total Employees:
432
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 735.71% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF REGENCY CENTERS CORPORATION(REG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
60.48
One Month Price Target:
$60.85
Six Month Price Target :
$62.71
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$64.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$60.2
Price Upper limit ($) :
$60.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$56.8
This week:
$52.26
This month :
$44.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.35B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
171.12M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
34.98%
-20.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$77.54
$69.73
$43.42
$51.23
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$67.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.53
$53.75
$55.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
REG
Sharpe Ratio:
0.98%
Comparison:
REG, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -5.33% lower than the industry
& is -56.87% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
REG
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.19%
Monthly returns:
0.76%
Yearly returns:
8.74%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 4.73% above industry average
Classification:
REG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.7
Statistical test of Returns:
REG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.98%
Weekly Volatility:
6.66%
Monthly Volatility:
13.32%
Yearly Volatility:
46.14%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.80%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.07% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.08%
Weekly VaR:
-13.59%
Monthly VaR:
-27.18%
How Much Can the price of
REG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-94.17%
This translates to price declining to:
$46.20
This translates to price declining to:
$3.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
REG is a 91.86% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 64.36% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.64% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
REG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.10
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.721
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.02
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.582
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.812
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.999
Beta is 9.91% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.101
Beta is -0.29% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.015
Alpha is -22.29% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -97% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
REG
Equity cost of capital:
0.107
Equity cost of capital is -0.20% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.69%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.92%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.92%
WACC is 6.38% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.98
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.67
Annual revenue growth rate is -143.41% below industry average
EPS:
$1.52
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
13.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 806.03% higher than the REIT�Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.81
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 7.53%
Equity growth rate per share is -135.96% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$22.98
EBITDA per share
$5.41
Valuation Analysis Today of
REG
P/E Ratio:
21.39
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
106.08
P/E ratio is -79.84% lower than main peers & is -55.18% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $72.53
REG is -16.61% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $40.58
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $24.90
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.66
Price to sales ratio is -9.76% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.67
Price to free cash flow: 15.88
Price to free cash flow ratio is -9.22% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
45.50%
Net income growth rate is -441.84% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 22.46%
Dividend yeild: 4.08%
Previous Dividend: $0.63
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.63
Previous Dividend: $2.47
Expected next dividend best case: $0.64
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.61
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.60
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.68%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/04/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.63
2021-12-15--$0.63
2021-06-14--$0.60
2022-03-14--$0.63
2021-09-14--$0.60
2021-03-12--$0.60
Dividend growth rate is -95.71% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
64.13%
Net debt to equity ratio:
61.26%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.28%
Net debt to assets ratio:
34.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -33.68% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.37
Interest coverage ratio is 112.62% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-6.04%
Annual debt growth is -583% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.499
Statistical significance of correlation:
REG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.511
Stock price is -2.35% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.511
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.043
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.074
Kurtosis
33.975
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.84
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
REG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
290%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
40.15%
Operating profit margin is 30.74% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
290%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.76%
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is 48.02% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.2
Current ratio is -97.16% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-312.2
Cash conversion cycle is -247.83% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.8M
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.1M
Each employee generates -33% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -13% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
330.8K
Each employee generates -41% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
24.3M
Each employee generates -41% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
REG
LAMAR ADVERTISING COMPANY (XNAS:LAMR)
CYRUSONE INC. (XNAS:CONE)
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (XNAS:GLPI)
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNCM)
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNCN)
BPY
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNC)
FirstService Corp (XNAS:FSV)
BROOKFIEL PPTY PRT SRS 2 CM CL A UNT (XNAS:BPYPO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�17%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.19B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
328.26M
866.63M
-
75.72M
75.72M
-
311.14M
386.86M
609.00K
145.14M
303.91M
925.04M
479.76M
475.98M
481.48M
-
475.98M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
77.84M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.16M
Change in Working Capital :
- 34268.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 2014.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 101662.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
142.89M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 7173.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 5554.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
175.98M
-
175.98M
151.85M
-
5.10M
332.94M
285.14M
167.10M
205.33M
419.33M
-
9.43B
10.51B
-
10.84B
278.27M
-
-
-
-
278.27M
3.93B
423.79M
4.36B
-
4.63B
1.71M
- 1726556.00K
- 1764.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
715.13M
6.13B
10.77B
-
3.93B
3.8B
5.93M
65.15M
58.35M
- 42846.00K
63.00K
-
- 106887.00K
32.13M
- 117543.00K
-
83.70M
178.73M
95.03M
142.89M
-
142.89M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
REG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$65.26
$102.85
$110.44
$118.58
$127.33