_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Redfin Corporation (XNAS:RDFN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RDFN
Name:
REDFIN CORPORATION (XNAS:RDFN)
Sector:
71.56M
Industry:
Real Estate Services
CEO:
Mr. Glenn Kelman
Total Employees:
6,485
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 90.83% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF REDFIN CORPORATION(RDFN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REAL ESTATE SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.81
One Month Price Target:
$7.89
Six Month Price Target :
$8.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.8
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.99
This week:
$5.97
This month :
$4.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
793.89M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
108.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
35.45%
-24.54%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.64
$9.90
$3.98
$5.72
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$9.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.96
$6.28
$6.66
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RDFN
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.44%
Comparison:
RDFN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -126.81% lower than the industry
& is -119.15% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RDFN
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.07%
Monthly returns:
-0.27%
Yearly returns:
16.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -119.79% below industry average
Classification:
RDFN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
RDFN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.13%
Weekly Volatility:
11.47%
Monthly Volatility:
22.95%
Yearly Volatility:
79.49%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.02%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.20% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.55%
Weekly VaR:
-23.59%
Monthly VaR:
-47.19%
How Much Can the price of
RDFN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-42%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.54
This translates to price declining to:
$1.17
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RDFN is a 233.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 185.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 46.29% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RDFN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.377
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.947
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.312
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.798
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.273
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.347
Beta is 40.73% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.462
Beta is 29.59% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.194
Alpha is -692.84% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1234% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RDFN
Equity cost of capital:
0.161
Equity cost of capital is 22.51% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.66%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.14%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.90%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.90%
WACC is -30.97% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$20.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.07
Annual revenue growth rate is 104.93% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.61
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.37%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -57.18% lower than the Real Estate Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$11.42
EBITDA per share
-$1.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
RDFN
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
72.03
-
-
RDFN is -116.11% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.38
Price to sales ratio is -92.81% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.07
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
113.69%
Net income growth rate is 191.64% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
525.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
272.03%
Debt to assets ratio:
66.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
34.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 23.76% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-7.98
Interest coverage ratio is -128.45% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
168.49%
Annual debt growth is -30% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.576
Statistical significance of correlation:
RDFN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.544
Stock price is 5.98% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.544
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.07
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.209
Kurtosis
5.752
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.259
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RDFN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
79%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-7.13%
Operating profit margin is -170.56% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
79%
Effective Tax Rate:
3.65%
Effective tax rate is -80.77% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-69.87%
Return on equity (ROE) is -697.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-8.82%
Return on assets (ROA) is -282.70% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.0x
Current Ratio:
3.66
Current ratio is -50.61% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
31.4
Cash conversion cycle is 329.32% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-10.20%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
347.2K
Each employee generates -61% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 17.6K
Each employee generates -107% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 25.4K
Each employee generates -133% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.0K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
118.4K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 85.91%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 39.45% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
RDFN
NEWMARK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NMRK)
SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT, INC. (XNAS:SBRA)
POTLATCHDELTIC CORPORATION (XNAS:PCH)
PHILLIPS EDISON & COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:PECO)
EXP WORLD HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXPI)
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP. (XNAS:ROIC)
CARETRUST REIT, INC. (XNYS:CTRE)
MEDALIST DIVERSIFIED REIT, INC. (XNAS:MDRRP)
INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:ILPT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.25B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.82B
434.00M
178.68M
239.89M
410.17M
170.28M
5.71M
594.56M
696.00K
14.29M
42.58M
- 114010.19K
- 160561.00K
- 164635.00K
- 170876.00K
- 6241.00K
- 164635.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.81M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
16.79M
Change in Working Capital :
138.21M
Accounts Receivables:
17.31M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
79.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7442.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 77596.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
612.68M
95.46M
708.14M
52.28M
245.49M
93.32M
1.10B
112.25M
409.38M
177.00M
56.19M
-
13.09M
767.92M
-
1.87B
22.69M
15.07M
-
-
262.60M
300.37M
1.24B
51.72M
1.29B
-
1.59B
107.00K
- 462970.00K
- 739.0K
699.23M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.41B
235.62M
1.83B
151.65M
1.25B
641.0M
11.85M
-
- 73192.00K
- 217.00K
-
-
-
- 75142.00K
- 75359.00K
- 4.00K
- 69554.00K
648.73M
718.28M
79.00M
- 7442.00K
71.56M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RDFN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$8.83
$9.95
$11.22
$12.65
$14.26