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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Rci Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:RICK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RICK
Name:
RCI HOSPITALITY HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:RICK)
Sector:
16.89M
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. Eric Langan
Total Employees:
2,529
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -346.97% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RCI HOSPITALITY HOLDINGS, INC.(RICK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
64.8
One Month Price Target:
$65.46
Six Month Price Target :
$68.77
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$72.74
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$64.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$65.54
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$58.47
This week:
$50.65
This month :
$36.5
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
601.32M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
9.24M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.79%
-21.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$94.11
$80.34
$35.49
$49.26
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$75.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.92
$53.70
$56.68
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RICK
Sharpe Ratio:
6.01%
Comparison:
RICK, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 264.87% higher than the industry
& ratio is 163.84% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RICK
Daily returns:
0.30%
Weekly returns:
1.52%
Monthly returns:
6.07%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 355.14% above industry average
Classification:
RICK, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
RICK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.90%
Weekly Volatility:
10.96%
Monthly Volatility:
21.93%
Yearly Volatility:
75.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.52%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.77%
Weekly VaR:
-21.84%
Monthly VaR:
-43.67%
How Much Can the price of
RICK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-35%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.04
This translates to price declining to:
$9.72
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RICK is a 208.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 164.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 40.39% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RICK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.82
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.271
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.797
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.068
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.276
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.142
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.542
Beta is 18.31% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is 34.75% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.14%
Sustainable growth rate is -30.38% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.572
Alpha is 1493.90% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3644% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RICK
Equity cost of capital:
0.156
Equity cost of capital is 25.94% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.16%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-6.19%
After-tax cost of debt:
-4.89%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-4.89%
WACC is 76.14% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.33
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.73
Annual revenue growth rate is 38.83% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.90
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.78%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 476.54% higher than the Restaurants industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.82
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 33.06%
Equity growth rate per share is -441.83% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$20.09
EBITDA per share
$5.57
Valuation Analysis Today of
RICK
P/E Ratio:
16.14
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17
P/E ratio is -5.07% lower than main peers & is -31.78% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $92.28
RICK is -29.78% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.48
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.14
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.04
Price to sales ratio is -6.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.73
Price to free cash flow: 11.13
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
49.87%
Net income growth rate is -71.36% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.83%
Dividend yeild: 0.28%
Previous Dividend: $0.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Expected next dividend best case: $0.06
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.04
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.04
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.67%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.05
2021-12-14--$0.04
2021-06-10--$0.04
2022-03-14--$0.05
2021-09-10--$0.04
2021-03-11--$0.04
Dividend growth rate is -393.01% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
84.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
79.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.88%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.50%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.70% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-4.32
Interest coverage ratio is -124.44% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.54%
Annual debt growth is -90% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.32%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.541
Statistical significance of correlation:
RICK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is 4.70% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.043
Kurtosis
5.322
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.762
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RICK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
268%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.95%
Operating profit margin is 197.34% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
268%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.16%
Effective tax rate is -6.95% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.73%
Return on equity (ROE) is 6377.93% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.78%
Return on assets (ROA) is -31.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.1
Current ratio is -2.02% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-16.6
Cash conversion cycle is -149.95% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 22.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
78.0K
Each employee generates -30% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
20.4K
Each employee generates -20% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
18.0K
Each employee generates 26% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.7K
Each employee generates 176% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
168.7K
Each employee generates 176% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RICK
EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC (XNAS:LOCO)
BIG 5 SPORTING GOODS CORPORATION (XNAS:BGFV)
FOSSIL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:FOSL)
CLARUS CORPORATION (XNAS:CLAR)
GAN LIMITED (XNAS:GAN)
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (XNAS:BLBD)
Winmark Corporation (XNAS:WINA)
TRNC
MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MCFT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
197.18M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
69.52M
127.66M
-
22.56M
54.43M
4.18M
122.97M
177.40M
290.00K
- 11926.00K
9.17M
51.53M
55.12M
45.57M
53.99M
8.72M
45.57M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.19M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
3.41M
Accounts Receivables:
17.00K
Other Working Capital:
3.57M
Other Non-Cash Items:
92.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
16.26M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9850.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 39302.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
17.95M
-
17.95M
6.01M
3.53M
11.58M
39.08M
239.72M
54.48M
125.31M
-
-
7.08M
426.60M
-
465.68M
5.81M
6.86M
-
-
22.84M
35.51M
185.71M
2.65M
210.40M
-
245.91M
95.00K
139.89M
-
79.79M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
217.43M
219.77M
465.68M
-
192.58M
174.6M
-
1.02M
- 48130.00K
- 2488.00K
-
-
- 380.00K
17.00M
14.13M
-
- 17732.00K
17.95M
35.69M
16.26M
626.00K
16.89M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RICK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$84.17
$94.49
$106.08
$119.08
$133.68