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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Rbc Bearings Incorporated (XNAS:ROLL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ROLL
Name:
RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED (XNAS:ROLL)
Sector:
49.93M
Industry:
Tools & Accessories
CEO:
Dr. Michael Hartnett
Total Employees:
3,549
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -118.57% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED(ROLL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TOOLS & ACCESSORIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
236.47
One Month Price Target:
$238.24
Six Month Price Target :
$247.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$257.69
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$235.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$238.15
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$219.62
This week:
$198.79
This month :
$161.11
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.98B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
28.93M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.19%
-27.65%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$314.62
$278.50
$158.32
$194.44
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$266.75
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$259.03
$206.10
$213.91
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ROLL
Sharpe Ratio:
2.91%
Comparison:
ROLL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 117.10% higher than the industry
& ratio is 27.49% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ROLL
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.56%
Monthly returns:
2.23%
Yearly returns:
10.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 152.51% above industry average
Classification:
ROLL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
ROLL has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.52%
Weekly Volatility:
7.88%
Monthly Volatility:
15.76%
Yearly Volatility:
54.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -87.04% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.13%
Weekly VaR:
-15.93%
Monthly VaR:
-31.87%
How Much Can the price of
ROLL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$172.85
This translates to price declining to:
$35.47
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ROLL is a 124.93% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 92.70% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 33.42% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ROLL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.34
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.776
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.097
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.305
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.818
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.217
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.335
Beta is 0.02% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.226
Beta is 8.92% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.22%
Sustainable growth rate is -73.78% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.144
Alpha is -1578.42% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 917% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ROLL
Equity cost of capital:
0.123
Equity cost of capital is 6.48% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.02%
Before-tax cost of debt:
91.27%
After-tax cost of debt:
72.10%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
72.10%
WACC is 51.32% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$32.59
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.37
Annual revenue growth rate is -209.16% below industry average
EPS:
$1.95
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-21.87%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 870.95% higher than the Tools & Accessories industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.57
-
-
Debt per share
$1.36
EBITDA per share
$6.32
Valuation Analysis Today of
ROLL
P/E Ratio:
123.88
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
68.66
P/E ratio is 80.43% higher than main peers & is 257.87% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $67.50
ROLL is 250.33% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.26
Price to sales ratio is 149.56% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.37
Price to free cash flow: 42.46
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-0.88%
Net income growth rate is -106.69% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.09%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-10.22%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-8.74%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.41% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.4
Interest coverage ratio is -63.30% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 12.99%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.526
Statistical significance of correlation:
ROLL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.678
Stock price is -22.49% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.678
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.005
Kurtosis
18.197
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.168
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ROLL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
153%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.79%
Operating profit margin is 103.56% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
153%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.83%
Effective tax rate is 49.58% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.16%
Return on equity (ROE) is -70.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.56%
Return on assets (ROA) is -36.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
8.23
Current ratio is 291.25% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
86.5
Cash conversion cycle is -23.97% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
10.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
265.7K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
51.5K
Each employee generates 16% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
14.9K
Each employee generates -39% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
14.1K
Each employee generates 4165% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
198.5K
Each employee generates 4165% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ROLL
EXPONENT, INC. (XNAS:EXPO)
UPWORK INC. (XNAS:UPWK)
51job, Inc. (XNAS:JOBS)
BALLARD POWER SYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:BLDP)
AVIS BUDGET GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CAR)
CHART INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:GTLS)
FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ULCC)
ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION CORP. (XNAS:AIMC)
ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD (XNAS:ESLT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
942.94M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
585.87M
357.07M
-
-
158.63M
-
68.37M
227.01M
-
41.51M
65.53M
182.75M
130.06M
53.05M
87.72M
22.65M
53.05M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.21M
Differed Income Tax :
725.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.77M
Change in Working Capital :
12.00M
Accounts Receivables:
4.89M
Other Working Capital:
690.62M
Other Non-Cash Items:
586.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
53.29M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3367.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 29949.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
7/3/21
2022
Q1
175.77M
120.32M
296.09M
105.76M
369.85M
14.42M
786.12M
240.95M
277.93M
153.76M
-
-
31.84M
704.48M
-
1.49B
42.69M
6.09M
-
-
46.72M
95.50M
39.39M
63.37M
120.72M
-
216.22M
263.00K
884.85M
- 8172.0K
397.43M
July 3, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
812.87M
1.27B
1.49B
-
45.48M
- 130289.0K
-
5.00K
- 33311.00K
- 5881.00K
-
- 6264.00K
-
16.68M
4.54M
167.00K
24.69M
175.77M
151.09M
53.29M
- 3367.00K
49.93M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ROLL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$234.39
$255.42
$278.34
$303.31
$330.53