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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Rbb Bancorp (XNAS:RBB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RBB
Name:
RBB BANCORP (XNAS:RBB)
Sector:
32.43M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Yee Phong Thian
Total Employees:
362
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -254.31% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RBB BANCORP(RBB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
21.82
One Month Price Target:
$21.93
Six Month Price Target :
$22.46
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.1
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$21.73
Price Upper limit ($) :
$21.93
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.62
This week:
$19.14
This month :
$16.46
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
405.13M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.02M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.67%
-12.75%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.38
$24.83
$16.26
$18.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.00
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.46
$19.63
$20.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RBB
Sharpe Ratio:
1.38%
Comparison:
RBB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 11.99% higher than the industry
& is -39.64% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RBB
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.92%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1.02% above industry average
Classification:
RBB, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.63
Statistical test of Returns:
RBB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.70%
Weekly Volatility:
6.03%
Monthly Volatility:
12.05%
Yearly Volatility:
41.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.59%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -40.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.49%
Weekly VaR:
-12.27%
Monthly VaR:
-24.55%
How Much Can the price of
RBB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-85.04%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.20
This translates to price declining to:
$3.26
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RBB is a 73.26% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 48.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -5.65% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RBB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.624
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.882
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.564
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.502
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.912
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.942
Beta is -7.28% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -9.40% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.35%
Sustainable growth rate is 13.41% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.019
Alpha is 63.04% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 120% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RBB
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -6.36% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.76%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.76%
WACC is -23.95% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.63
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.89
Annual revenue growth rate is 36.15% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.97
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
13.42%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 11.66% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.71
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -358.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$18.98
EBITDA per share
$6.07
Valuation Analysis Today of
RBB
P/E Ratio:
7.04
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
157.8
P/E ratio is -95.54% lower than main peers & is -43.27% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $36.85
RBB is -40.79% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $345.26
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.36
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.86
Price to sales ratio is -33.10% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.89
Price to free cash flow: 4.64
Price to free cash flow ratio is -90.93% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
39.03%
Net income growth rate is -29.14% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.61%
Dividend yeild: 2.47%
Previous Dividend: $0.14
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.14
Previous Dividend: $0.54
Expected next dividend best case: $0.16
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.94%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-29--$0.14
2021-10-29--$0.13
2021-05-06--$0.13
2022-01-28--$0.14
2021-07-30--$0.13
2021-01-29--$0.12
Dividend growth rate is -70.54% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
77.68%
Net debt to equity ratio:
45.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
9.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.25%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -94.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.31
Interest coverage ratio is 540.79% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
34.29%
Annual debt growth is 10726% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.469
Statistical significance of correlation:
RBB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -6.27% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.043
Kurtosis
4.168
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.03
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RBB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
55.79%
Operating profit margin is 55.78% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
29.56%
Effective tax rate is 37.20% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is 6.54% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is -36.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.44%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
400.7K
Each employee generates 6% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
319.0K
Each employee generates 41% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
163.2K
Each employee generates 15% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
89.6K
Each employee generates 8% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates 8% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RBB
BURGUNDY TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION CORPORATION (XNAS:BTAQ)
Nightdragon Acquisition Corp (XNAS:NDAC)
BURGUNDY TECH ACQ UNT (XNAS:BTAQU)
EQUITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:EQBK)
FIDUS INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:FDUS)
ENTERPRISE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EBTC)
THBR
CAPSTAR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CSTR)
GORES HOLDINGS VIII, INC. (XNAS:GIIX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
145.07M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
41.98M
43.26M
1.28M
-
-
150.19M
21.74M
9.86M
115.46M
80.94M
59.07M
83.86M
24.79M
59.07M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.99M
Differed Income Tax :
11.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
257.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 1581.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 325.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
16.86M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
33.16M
Investments in PP&E:
- 725.00K
Net Acquisitions:
71.35M
Purchases of Investments:
- 185338.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
150.37M
420.45M
570.82M
31.18M
-
-
-
49.91M
71.50M
4.53M
446.67M
-
-
572.60M
4.59B
4.01B
18.28M
-
-
-
-
-
361.02M
-
361.02M
3.91B
3.55B
279.84M
190.85M
- 10324.0K
4.39M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
464.75M
4.01B
867.12M
361.02M
210.7M
120.55M
- 76643.00K
- 70801.00K
-
-
- 5734.00K
- 2724.00K
- 298502.00K
- 306960.00K
-
- 344605.00K
349.77M
694.37M
33.16M
- 725.00K
32.43M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RBB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$23.22
$162.25
$171.77
$181.85
$192.52