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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Rayonier Inc. (XNYS:RYN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RYN
Name:
RAYONIER INC. (XNYS:RYN)
Sector:
31.24M
Industry:
REIT�Specialty
CEO:
Mr. David Nunes
Total Employees:
406
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -4.85% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RAYONIER INC.(RYN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�SPECIALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.12
One Month Price Target:
$35.28
Six Month Price Target :
$36.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$34.99
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.29
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.31
This week:
$31.06
This month :
$27.01
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.14B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
146.42M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.79%
-19.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.54
$39.67
$26.70
$30.57
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$38.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.59
$31.81
$32.65
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RYN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.52%
Comparison:
RYN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -22.73% lower than the industry
& is -33.11% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RYN
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.24%
Monthly returns:
0.95%
Yearly returns:
14.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -22.76% below industry average
Classification:
RYN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.28
Statistical test of Returns:
RYN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.54%
Weekly Volatility:
5.67%
Monthly Volatility:
11.35%
Yearly Volatility:
39.32%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.70%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.16%
Weekly VaR:
-11.55%
Monthly VaR:
-23.10%
How Much Can the price of
RYN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.01%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.14
This translates to price declining to:
$7.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RYN is a 63.02% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 39.66% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.63% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RYN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.83
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.738
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.043
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.494
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.866
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.039
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.139
Beta is -27.13% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.954
Beta is -12.97% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.026
Alpha is -49.41% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 164% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RYN
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is -8.75% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.26%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.34%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.64%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.64%
WACC is 7.50% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.79
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.55
Annual revenue growth rate is 281.23% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.17
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
31.67%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 17.65% higher than the REIT�Specialty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.63
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 36.15%
Equity growth rate per share is 191.33% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$9.15
EBITDA per share
$2.67
Valuation Analysis Today of
RYN
P/E Ratio:
37.65
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.38
P/E ratio is 48.36% higher than main peers & is -54.70% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $97.25
RYN is -63.89% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.56
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.31
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.51
Price to sales ratio is -38.06% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.55
Price to free cash flow: 55.45
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
81.11%
Net income growth rate is -69.69% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 23.06%
Dividend yeild: 3.12%
Previous Dividend: $0.29
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.29
Previous Dividend: $1.10
Expected next dividend best case: $0.29
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.29
2021-12-16--$0.27
2021-06-15--$0.27
2022-03-16--$0.27
2021-09-15--$0.27
2021-03-16--$0.27
Dividend growth rate is -98.91% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
72.90%
Net debt to equity ratio:
58.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
37.62%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.38%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.13% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.72
Interest coverage ratio is 65.20% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.30%
Annual debt growth is -57% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 28.24%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.712
Statistical significance of correlation:
RYN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is 17.89% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.044
Kurtosis
21.165
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.224
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RYN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
25.14%
Operating profit margin is 39.07% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Effective Tax Rate:
6.91%
Effective tax rate is -35.24% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.31%
Return on equity (ROE) is -49.18% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.81%
Return on assets (ROA) is -5.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
4.05
Current ratio is 129.95% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.64%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.8M
Each employee generates -65% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
962.0K
Each employee generates -85% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
421.3K
Each employee generates -86% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
76.9K
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
7.8M
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RYN
THE HOWARD HUGHES CORPORATION (XNYS:HHC)
NATIONAL STORAGE AFFILIATES TRUST (XNYS:NSA)
SL GREEN REALTY CORP. (XNYS:SLG)
TERRENO REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:TRNO)
INDEPENDENCE REALTY TRUST, INC (XNYS:IRT)
BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNYS:BXMT)
GRP-UN
SPIRIT REALTY CAPITAL, INC. (XNYS:SRC)
IQVIA HOLDINGS INC (XFRA:QTS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.14B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
805.74M
334.46M
-
-
58.53M
-
- 9304.00K
49.22M
1.47M
44.81M
157.91M
390.58M
286.61M
171.05M
243.24M
16.81M
171.05M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
- 8014.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 26836.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 1500.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
50.72M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
49.67M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2830.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
259.72M
-
259.72M
52.91M
33.29M
29.18M
375.10M
133.09M
-
-
-
-
3.05B
3.18B
-
3.56B
31.13M
2.09M
2.75M
13.70M
45.75M
92.66M
1.34B
110.11M
1.45B
-
1.54B
1.42B
389.08M
26.0M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
854.96M
1.84B
3.38B
-
1.34B
1.1B
-
- 16115.00K
- 18945.00K
- 526948.00K
30.92M
- 214.00K
- 39444.00K
401.02M
- 134670.00K
620.00K
- 103328.00K
265.81M
369.14M
49.67M
- 18427.00K
31.24M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RYN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.45
$50.09
$52.89
$55.84
$58.95