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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Raymond James Financial, Inc. (XNYS:RJF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RJF
Name:
RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:RJF)
Sector:
- 2306000.00K
Industry:
Capital Markets
CEO:
Mr. Paul Reilly
Total Employees:
15,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 19.82% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL, INC.(RJF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CAPITAL MARKETS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
103.5
One Month Price Target:
$104.11
Six Month Price Target :
$107.18
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$110.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$103.16
Price Upper limit ($) :
$104.08
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$98.02
This week:
$91.25
This month :
$79.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
22.32B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
215.83M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.94%
-11.59%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$128.90
$117.08
$78.10
$89.92
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$113.24
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$110.72
$93.73
$96.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RJF
Sharpe Ratio:
4.03%
Comparison:
RJF, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 15.21% higher than the industry
& ratio is 76.63% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RJF
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.57%
Monthly returns:
2.30%
Yearly returns:
25.05%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 10.04% above industry average
Classification:
RJF, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.96
Statistical test of Returns:
RJF has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.63%
Weekly Volatility:
5.89%
Monthly Volatility:
11.78%
Yearly Volatility:
40.80%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.90% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.29%
Weekly VaR:
-11.84%
Monthly VaR:
-23.67%
How Much Can the price of
RJF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-82.01%
This translates to price declining to:
$83.20
This translates to price declining to:
$18.62
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RJF is a 67.09% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 43.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.15% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RJF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.06
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.818
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.157
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.839
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.923
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.964
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.156
Beta is -8.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.144
Beta is -7.49% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.15%
Sustainable growth rate is -29.65% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.172
Alpha is 22.06% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1093% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RJF
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is -5.34% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.25%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.10%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.10%
WACC is 3.62% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$48.52
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.58
Annual revenue growth rate is -42.99% below industry average
EPS:
$7.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.11%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -73.13% lower than the Capital Markets industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$22.64
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 52.60%
Equity growth rate per share is -47.43% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$13.40
EBITDA per share
$10.31
Valuation Analysis Today of
RJF
P/E Ratio:
14.73
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.37
P/E ratio is 42.07% higher than main peers & is -26.31% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $141.76
RJF is -26.99% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $24.11
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.68
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.13
Price to sales ratio is -50.22% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.58
Price to free cash flow: 4.57
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
73.49%
Net income growth rate is -160.80% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.99%
Dividend yeild: 1.24%
Previous Dividend: $0.34
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.34
Previous Dividend: $1.28
Expected next dividend best case: $0.37
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.31
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.36
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.28%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 22/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 23/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.34
2022-01-03--$0.34
2021-06-30--$0.39
2022-04-01--$0.34
2021-09-30--$0.26
2021-03-31--$0.39
Dividend growth rate is -99.06% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
33.64%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-61.90%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.78%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -94.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.83
Interest coverage ratio is -70.95% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-11.68%
Annual debt growth is -153% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.772
Statistical significance of correlation:
RJF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.637
Stock price is 21.17% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.637
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.047
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.072
Kurtosis
7.341
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.512
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RJF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
22.26%
Effective tax rate is 12.05% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.50%
Return on equity (ROE) is -28.18% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.20%
Return on assets (ROA) is -59.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
9.57
Current ratio is 127.37% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 23.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.32%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
698.1K
Each employee generates -62% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
148.3K
Each employee generates -47% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
100.3K
Each employee generates -41% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 153.7K
Each employee generates 562% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
762.1K
Each employee generates 562% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RJF
M&T BANK CORPORATION (XNYS:MTB)
STATE STREET CORPORATION (XNYS:STT)
CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:CFG)
STT-PD
CS
THE HARTFORD FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNYS:HIG)
KEYCORP (XNYS:KEY)
HIG-PG
ORIX CORPORATION (XNYS:IX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
10.47B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
7.77B
7.77B
-
-
-
887.00M
150.00M
139.00M
2.23B
-
1.51B
1.94B
431.00M
1.51B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
35.00M
Differed Income Tax :
14.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
65.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2771000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
267.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 76000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 2287000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 19000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 824000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
8.22B
8.55B
16.76B
3.76B
-
-
-
930.00M
660.00M
214.00M
9.63B
-
-
11.43B
79.89B
68.46B
19.20B
-
-
-
-
-
2.89B
-
2.89B
62.70B
59.81B
2.00M
8.00B
- 87000.0K
682.00M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
-
8.60B
68.41B
18.18B
2.89B
- 5323000.0K
501.00M
- 1213000.00K
- 1555000.00K
- 1000.00K
-
- 51000.00K
- 60000.00K
1.61B
1.50B
3.00M
- 2342000.00K
14.11B
16.45B
- 2287000.00K
- 19000.00K
- 2306000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RJF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$120.06
$128.60
$137.75
$147.55
$158.04