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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Rattler Midstream Lp Common Ord (XNAS:RTLR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RTLR
Name:
RATTLER MIDSTREAM LP COMMON ORD (XNAS:RTLR)
Sector:
42.00M
Industry:
Oil & Gas Midstream
CEO:
Mr. Travis D. Stice
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RATTLER MIDSTREAM LP COMMON ORD(RTLR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS MIDSTREAM INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.79
One Month Price Target:
$14.86
Six Month Price Target :
$15.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.66
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.7
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.9
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.62
This week:
$12.17
This month :
$9.55
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
-
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.03%
-36.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.22
$17.73
$9.36
$11.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.92
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.39
$12.65
$13.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RTLR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.55%
Comparison:
RTLR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -45.91% lower than the industry
& is -32.00% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RTLR
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.35%
Monthly returns:
1.38%
Yearly returns:
30.53%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -45.68% below industry average
Classification:
RTLR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.54
Statistical test of Returns:
RTLR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.89%
Weekly Volatility:
8.69%
Monthly Volatility:
17.39%
Yearly Volatility:
60.23%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.92%
Weekly VaR:
-17.70%
Monthly VaR:
-35.40%
How Much Can the price of
RTLR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.28
This translates to price declining to:
$2.22
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RTLR is a 149.84% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 114.03% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.06% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RTLR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.638
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.903
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.296
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.595
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.824
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.962
Beta is -55.51% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.441
Beta is -39.43% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.075
Alpha is -57.41% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 475% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RTLR
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -29.89% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.36%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.86%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.86%
WACC is -23.42% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.48
Annual revenue growth rate is 380.82% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.92
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.35%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -1252.13% lower than the Oil & Gas Midstream industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.30
-
-
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
RTLR
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
35.14
-
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $16.48
RTLR is -10.26% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $26.43
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.95
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.4
Price to sales ratio is -49.50% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.48
Price to free cash flow: 11.40
Price to free cash flow ratio is -67.30% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1060.44%
Net income growth rate is -719.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 7.44%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.10
Expected next dividend best case: $0.34
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.26
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -0.07%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.30
2021-11-12--$0.25
2021-05-13--$0.20
2022-03-04--$0.30
2021-08-13--$0.25
2021-03-05--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -100.00% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
207.15%
Net debt to equity ratio:
203.23%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.92%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -47.25% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
15.46
Interest coverage ratio is 191.43% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.351
Statistical significance of correlation:
RTLR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.464
Stock price is -24.29% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.464
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.109
Kurtosis
16.233
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.357
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RTLR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
239%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
42.38%
Operating profit margin is 108.69% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
239%
Effective Tax Rate:
6.04%
Effective tax rate is -66.90% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
50.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is -9.47% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.94%
Return on assets (ROA) is 163.07% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.56
Current ratio is -9.21% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
60.7
Cash conversion cycle is 2.44% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.43%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RTLR
CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP. (XNAS:CLNE)
PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:PTEN)
CHORD ENERGY CORPORATION (XNAS:CHRD)
PERMIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNAS:PR)
National Energy Services Reunited Corp. (XNAS:NESR)
OASIS MIDSTREAM PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:OMP)
XOG
KINETIK HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:KNTK)
Brooge Energy Ltd (XNAS:BROG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
401.00M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
159.92M
241.08M
-
22.32M
22.32M
-
43.86M
66.18M
-
17.05M
58.64M
263.49M
169.95M
176.56M
186.20M
11.24M
176.56M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.69M
Differed Income Tax :
2.39M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.52M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2797.00K
Accounts Receivables:
5.74M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
29.16M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
59.89M
Investments in PP&E:
- 17888.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 29133.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
13.70M
-
13.70M
49.89M
13.51M
15.12M
92.21M
1.09B
-
3.54M
643.21M
59.55M
90.72M
1.88B
-
1.98B
-
-
603.00K
-
59.08M
59.08M
723.46M
33.93M
757.39M
-
816.48M
-
7.93K
11.0K
349.22M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
226.10M
349.24M
1.17B
-
723.46M
709.8M
-
- 7084.00K
- 54105.00K
-
-
-
-
- 11978.00K
- 11978.00K
-
13.68M
13.70M
19.90K
59.89M
- 17888.00K
42.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RTLR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$19.68
$20.84
$22.06
$23.35
$24.72