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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Rapid7, Inc. (XNAS:RPD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RPD
Name:
RAPID7, INC. (XNAS:RPD)
Sector:
3.83M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Corey Thomas
Total Employees:
2,353
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -113.98% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RAPID7, INC.(RPD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
53.6
One Month Price Target:
$53.99
Six Month Price Target :
$55.96
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$58.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$53.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$53.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$50.47
This week:
$46.61
This month :
$39.61
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
58.70M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.51%
-17.4%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$68.11
$61.46
$39.09
$45.74
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$59.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.88
$47.88
$49.32
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RPD
Sharpe Ratio:
1.20%
Comparison:
RPD, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 24.99% higher than the industry
& is -47.14% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RPD
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.22%
Monthly returns:
0.87%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 4.65% above industry average
Classification:
RPD, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
RPD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.86%
Weekly Volatility:
6.40%
Monthly Volatility:
12.80%
Yearly Volatility:
44.34%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.54%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -11.28% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.83%
Weekly VaR:
-13.05%
Monthly VaR:
-26.09%
How Much Can the price of
RPD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-90.39%
This translates to price declining to:
$41.50
This translates to price declining to:
$5.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RPD is a 84.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 57.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.38% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RPD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.31
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.012
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.432
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.213
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.068
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.704
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.6
Beta is -18.25% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -2.04% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
143.60%
Sustainable growth rate is 361.70% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.017
Alpha is -27.48% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -109% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RPD
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is -1.51% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-1.97%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.26%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.00%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.00%
WACC is -54.70% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.80
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-23.04
Annual revenue growth rate is -32.10% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.85
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
34.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 24.50% higher than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.36
-
-
Debt per share
$15.45
EBITDA per share
-$1.73
Valuation Analysis Today of
RPD
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
928.49
-
-
RPD is -110.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.47
Price to sales ratio is -52.32% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-23.04
Price to free cash flow: 147.80
Price to free cash flow ratio is 58.96% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
118.65%
Net income growth rate is -51.41% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-664.18%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-568.96%
Debt to assets ratio:
71.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
60.99%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 29.76% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-8.75
Interest coverage ratio is -116.48% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
135.08%
Annual debt growth is -86% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.592
Statistical significance of correlation:
RPD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 17.61% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.028
Kurtosis
3.678
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.446
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RPD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
267%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-23.87%
Operating profit margin is 24.57% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
267%
Effective Tax Rate:
-7.66%
Effective tax rate is -129.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
118.26%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1004.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-12.68%
Return on assets (ROA) is 230.07% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.5x
Current Ratio:
0.89
Current ratio is -70.16% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
92
Cash conversion cycle is -2.93% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-17.91%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
244.5K
Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 43.1K
Each employee generates -501% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 68.6K
Each employee generates 293% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.6K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
366.8K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 48.09%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 3045.47% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
RPD
AMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AMKR)
BUMBLE INC. (XNAS:BMBL)
Novanta Inc. (XNAS:NOVT)
Braze, Inc. (XNAS:BRZE)
LUMINAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:LAZR)
FRESHWORKS INC. (XNAS:FRSH)
MICROSTRATEGY INCORPORATED (XNAS:MSTR)
NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS CORPORATION (XNAS:NATI)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�38%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
575.34M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
191.76M
383.57M
177.51M
83.59M
351.21M
267.62M
-
528.72M
381.00K
11.59M
36.93M
- 101474.00K
- 137327.00K
- 161488.00K
- 149995.00K
11.49M
- 161488.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.17M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
28.92M
Change in Working Capital :
16.31M
Accounts Receivables:
36.33M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
10.40M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3053.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 32136.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
141.37M
93.16M
234.52M
107.32M
-
69.04M
410.88M
139.00M
515.33M
108.25M
28.30M
-
72.12M
863.00M
-
1.27B
12.16M
11.34M
-
378.34M
57.77M
459.60M
906.95M
13.25M
950.82M
-
1.41B
582.00K
- 781027.00K
- 2052.0K
645.95M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
720.48M
- 136551.00K
1.27B
121.45M
918.29M
776.9M
2.80M
- 3522.00K
- 35911.00K
-
-
-
-
3.21M
3.21M
- 800.00K
- 23100.00K
141.92M
165.02M
10.40M
- 6575.00K
3.83M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RPD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$58.49
$63.64
$69.23
$75.32
$81.94