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Rapid7, Inc. (XNAS:RPD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

RPD

Name:

RAPID7, INC. (XNAS:RPD)

Sector:

3.83M

Industry:

Software�Application

CEO:

Mr. Corey Thomas

Total Employees:

2,353

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

D

Technological advancement compared to industry is -113.98% lower

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RAPID7, INC.(RPD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

53.6

One Month Price Target:

$53.99

Six Month Price Target :

$55.96

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$58.31

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$53.36

Price Upper limit ($) :

$53.88

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$50.47

                                                               This week:

$46.61

                                                        This month :

$39.61

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

3.08B

Market Cap Classification:

Mid Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

58.70M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

12.51%

-17.4%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$68.11

$61.46

$39.09

$45.74

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$59.30

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$57.88

$47.88

$49.32

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

RPD

Sharpe Ratio:

1.20%

Comparison:

RPD, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is 24.99% higher than the industry

& is -47.14% lower than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

RPD

Daily returns:

0.04%

Weekly returns:

0.22%

Monthly returns:

0.87%

Yearly returns:

9.94%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 4.65% above industry average

Classification:

RPD, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.89

Statistical test of Returns:

RPD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

2.86%

Weekly Volatility:

6.40%

Monthly Volatility:

12.80%

Yearly Volatility:

44.34%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

2.54%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -11.28% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-5.83%

Weekly VaR:

-13.05%

Monthly VaR:

-26.09%

How Much Can the price of

RPD

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-23%

Worst case (decline):

-90.39%

This translates to price declining to:

$41.50

This translates to price declining to:

$5.15

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

RPD is a 84.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 57.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.38% below industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

RPD

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.31

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

1.012

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

1.432

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

-0.213

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

1.068

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.704

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.6

Beta is -18.25% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

1.335

Beta is -2.04% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

143.60%

Sustainable growth rate is 361.70% above industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

-0.017

Alpha is -27.48% below industry average alpha yield

Alpha is -109% below the market average

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

RPD

Equity cost of capital:

0.121

Equity cost of capital is -1.51% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

-1.97%

Before-tax cost of debt:

1.26%

After-tax cost of debt:

1.00%

Overall debt rating:

Highest AAA investment grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

1.00%

WACC is -54.70% below industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$9.80

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

-23.04

Annual revenue growth rate is -32.10% below industry average

EPS:

-$2.85

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

34.06%

Expected future EPS growth rate is 24.50% higher than the Software�Application industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

$0.36

-

-

Debt per share

$15.45

EBITDA per share

-$1.73

Valuation Analysis Today of

RPD

P/E Ratio:

-

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

928.49

-

-

RPD is -110.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

-

-

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

5.47

Price to sales ratio is -52.32% below the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

-23.04

Price to free cash flow: 147.80

Price to free cash flow ratio is 58.96% higher than the industry

Net income growth rate (3Y):

118.65%

Net income growth rate is -51.41% lower than the industry average net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Dividend History:

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

-

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

-664.18%

Net debt to equity ratio:

-568.96%

Debt to assets ratio:

71.20%

Net debt to assets ratio:

60.99%

Debt-to-asset ratio is 29.76% above industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

-8.75

Interest coverage ratio is -116.48% less than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

135.08%

Annual debt growth is -86% lower than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.592

Statistical significance of correlation:

RPD has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.503

Stock price is 17.61% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.503

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

-0.017

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

-0.028

Kurtosis 

3.678

Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

-0.446

Returns are, approximately, symmetrical

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

RPD

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

267%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

-23.87%

Operating profit margin is 24.57% higher than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

267%

Effective Tax Rate:

-7.66%

Effective tax rate is -129.05% lower than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

118.26%

Return on equity (ROE) is -1004.22% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

-12.68%

Return on assets (ROA) is 230.07% higher than the industry

Financial Leverage:

3.5x

Current Ratio:

0.89

Current ratio is -70.16% below industry average

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

92

Cash conversion cycle is -2.93% below industry average

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.6 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

-17.91%

In-depth Efficiency  Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

244.5K

Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee: 

- 43.1K

Each employee generates -501% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee: 

- 68.6K

Each employee generates 293% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee: 

1.6K

Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

366.8K

Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 48.09%

Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 3045.47% higher than the industry

Competitors/Peer firms of 

RPD

AMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AMKR)

BUMBLE INC. (XNAS:BMBL)

Novanta Inc. (XNAS:NOVT)

Braze, Inc. (XNAS:BRZE)

LUMINAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:LAZR)

FRESHWORKS INC. (XNAS:FRSH)

MICROSTRATEGY INCORPORATED (XNAS:MSTR)

NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS CORPORATION (XNAS:NATI)

-

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�8%

Buy�38%

Hold�8%

Sell�0%

Strong sell�0%

Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy

Income Statement

Period:

TTM

Date:

3/31/22

Revenue:

575.34M

Cost of Revenue:

Gross Profit:

R&D Expense

General & Admin Expenses:

Selling, General & Admin Expenses

Sales and Marketing Expenses

Other Expenses :

Operating Expenses :

Cost & Expenses :

Interest Income:

Interest Expenses:

Depreciation & Amortization:

EBITDA:

Operating Income:

Other Income Expenses:

Income Before Tax:

Income Tax Expense:

Net Income:

Balance Sheet

Date:

Calendar Year:

Period:

Cash & Cash Equivalents:

Short Term Investments:

Cash & Short Term Investments:

Net Receivables:

Inventory:

Other Current Assets:

Total Current Assets:

PP&E:

Goodwill: 

Intangible Assets: 

Long Term Investments: 

Tax Assets: 

Other Non-Current Assets: 

Total Non-Current Assets: 

Other Assets: 

Total Assets: 

Accounts Payable: 

Short Term Debt:

Tax Payables:

Deferred Revenue:

Other Current Liabilities:

Total Current Liabilities:

Long Term Debt:

Other Non-Current Liabilities:

Total Non Current Liabilities:

Other Liabilities:

Total Liabilities:

Common Stock:

Retained Earnings:

Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:

Other Total Stockholders' Equity:

Total Stockholders' Equity:

Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:

Total Investments:

Total Debt:

Net Debt:

191.76M

383.57M

177.51M

83.59M

351.21M

267.62M

-

528.72M

381.00K

11.59M

36.93M

- 101474.00K

- 137327.00K

- 161488.00K

- 149995.00K

11.49M

- 161488.00K

Statement of Cash Flow

Date:

Period:

10.17M

Differed Income Tax :

-

Stock Based Compensation :

28.92M

Change in Working Capital :

16.31M

Accounts Receivables:

36.33M

Other Working Capital:

-

Other Non-Cash Items:

-

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:

10.40M

Investments in PP&E:

- 3053.00K

Net Acquisitions:

-

Purchases of Investments:

- 32136.00K

Sales/Maturities of Investments:

Other Investing Activities:

​Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:

Debt Repayment:

Common Stock Issued:

Common Stock Repurchased:

Dividend Paid:

Other Financing Activities:

Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:

Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:

Net Changes in Cash:

Cash at End of Period:

Cash at Beginning of Period:

Operating Cash Flow:

Capital Expenditure:

Free Cash Flow (FCF):

3/31/22

2022

Q1

141.37M

93.16M

234.52M

107.32M

-

69.04M

410.88M

139.00M

515.33M

108.25M

28.30M

-

72.12M

863.00M

-

1.27B

12.16M

11.34M

-

378.34M

57.77M

459.60M

906.95M

13.25M

950.82M

-

1.41B

582.00K

- 781027.00K

- 2052.0K

645.95M

March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM

720.48M

- 136551.00K

1.27B

121.45M

918.29M

776.9M

2.80M

- 3522.00K

- 35911.00K

-

-

-

-

3.21M

3.21M

- 800.00K

- 23100.00K

141.92M

165.02M

10.40M

- 6575.00K

3.83M

Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating

Our Rating:

D

Portfolio rating_explained.png
Tech rating_explained.png
Alpha explained.png

Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of

RPD

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

$58.49

$63.64

$69.23

$75.32

$81.94

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