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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ramaco Resources, Inc. (XNAS:METC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
METC
Name:
RAMACO RESOURCES, INC. (XNAS:METC)
Sector:
57.63M
Industry:
Coking Coal
CEO:
Mr. Michael Bauersachs
Total Employees:
454
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF RAMACO RESOURCES, INC.(METC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND COKING COAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.15
One Month Price Target:
$10.2
Six Month Price Target :
$10.48
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.81
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$10.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.12
This week:
$7.84
This month :
$5.54
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
472.02M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
44.07M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.38%
-18.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.93
$12.69
$5.37
$7.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.96
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.49
$8.33
$8.81
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
METC
Sharpe Ratio:
5.39%
Comparison:
METC, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -28.36% lower than the industry
& ratio is 136.62% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
METC
Daily returns:
0.28%
Weekly returns:
1.42%
Monthly returns:
5.66%
Yearly returns:
115.76%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -41.32% below industry average
Classification:
METC, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.74
Statistical test of Returns:
METC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.08%
Weekly Volatility:
11.37%
Monthly Volatility:
22.74%
Yearly Volatility:
78.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.52%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 8.56% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.16%
Weekly VaR:
-22.71%
Monthly VaR:
-45.43%
How Much Can the price of
METC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.40
This translates to price declining to:
$1.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
METC is a 220.63% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 174.68% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.59% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
METC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.96
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.536
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.758
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.938
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.544
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.819
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.275
Beta is -24.30% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.095
Beta is -11.90% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.06%
Sustainable growth rate is 0.00% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.582
Alpha is -44.66% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3703% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
METC
Equity cost of capital:
0.098
Equity cost of capital is -8.38% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.08%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.80%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.80%
WACC is -8.86% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -318.83% below industry average
EPS:
$1.72
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
13.84%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 0.00% lower than the Coking Coal industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.97
-
-
Debt per share
$0.20
EBITDA per share
$2.78
Valuation Analysis Today of
METC
P/E Ratio:
4.55
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.02
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $20.29
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.32
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.13
Price to sales ratio is -28.82% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.78
Price to free cash flow: 5.15
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
49.53%
Net income growth rate is 1241.91% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.48%
Dividend yeild: 2.23%
Previous Dividend: $0.11
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.11
Previous Dividend: $0.23
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.11
--$0.00
--$0.00
2022-02-28--$0.11
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-20.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.13%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-12.70%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
101.32
Interest coverage ratio is 2814.58% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-61.03%
Annual debt growth is 0% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 32.40%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.244
Statistical significance of correlation:
METC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.299
Stock price is -18.32% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.299
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.043
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.127
Kurtosis
1.995
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.534
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
METC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.09%
Operating profit margin is 1973.11% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.71%
Effective tax rate is 9232.90% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
30.60%
Return on equity (ROE) is -333.65% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
18.97%
Return on assets (ROA) is 2670.43% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.86
Current ratio is -11.90% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
35.9
Cash conversion cycle is 37.10% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
869.7K
Each employee generates 3% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
269.8K
Each employee generates 10% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
169.8K
Each employee generates -9% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
126.9K
Each employee generates 19% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
583.2K
Each employee generates 19% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
METC
NORTHERN TECHNOLOGIES INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:NTIC)
WESTWATER RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:WWR)
HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORPORATION (XNAS:HYMC)
ZK International Group Co., Ltd. (XNAS:ZKIN)
HUDSON TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:HDSN)
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE DIAMONDS INC. (OTCM:MPVDF)
ASCENT INDUSTRIES CO. (XNAS:ACNT)
MARRONE BIO INNOVATIONS, INC. (XNAS:MBII)
UNIVERSAL STAINLESS & ALLOY PRODUCTS, INC. (XNAS:USAP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�21%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
394.82M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
245.47M
149.35M
-
-
28.75M
-
13.02M
41.76M
-
1.21M
28.73M
122.49M
91.18M
77.09M
92.55M
15.47M
77.09M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.68M
Differed Income Tax :
5.02M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.89M
Change in Working Capital :
20.32M
Accounts Receivables:
- 3194.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
77.37M
Investments in PP&E:
- 19742.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
71.47M
-
71.47M
47.65M
19.54M
2.94M
141.60M
258.23M
-
-
-
-
6.54M
264.76M
-
406.36M
40.41M
11.21M
-
-
24.61M
76.23M
8.67M
58.11M
78.20M
-
154.43M
443.00K
86.04M
-
165.45M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
303.64M
251.94M
406.36M
-
19.88M
- 51592.0K
-
-
- 19742.00K
- 4154.00K
-
-
- 4998.00K
1.23M
- 7920.00K
-
49.71M
72.51M
22.81M
77.37M
- 19742.00K
57.63M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
METC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.86
$18.96
$20.19
$21.49
$22.89