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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Qurate Retail, Inc. (XNAS:QRTEA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
QRTEA
Name:
QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEA)
Sector:
- 222000.00K
Industry:
Internet Retail
CEO:
Mr. Michael George
Total Employees:
26,659
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 491.68% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF QURATE RETAIL, INC.(QRTEA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.88
One Month Price Target:
$2.91
Six Month Price Target :
$3.03
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.18
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.86
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.9
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.61
This week:
$2.28
This month :
$1.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
382.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.03%
-43.69%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.12
$3.56
$1.64
$2.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.26
$2.38
$2.50
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
QRTEA
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.21%
Comparison:
QRTEA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -139.39% lower than the industry
& is -152.99% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
QRTEA
Daily returns:
-0.05%
Weekly returns:
-0.23%
Monthly returns:
-0.91%
Yearly returns:
37.29%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -129.27% below industry average
Classification:
QRTEA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
QRTEA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.50%
Weekly Volatility:
10.06%
Monthly Volatility:
20.11%
Yearly Volatility:
69.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.87%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -58.49% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.28%
Weekly VaR:
-20.75%
Monthly VaR:
-41.51%
How Much Can the price of
QRTEA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.81
This translates to price declining to:
$0.43
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
QRTEA is a 192.97% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 150.98% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.44% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
QRTEA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.009
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.427
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.658
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.919
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.77
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.434
Beta is 8.35% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.105
Beta is -26.17% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.247
Alpha is -225.28% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1573% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
QRTEA
Equity cost of capital:
0.138
Equity cost of capital is -21.48% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.84%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.21%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.21%
WACC is -5.30% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$35.57
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.38
Annual revenue growth rate is -79.49% below industry average
EPS:
$0.28
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.28
-
-
Debt per share
$13.59
EBITDA per share
$3.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
QRTEA
P/E Ratio:
10.07
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.07
P/E ratio is -44.24% lower than main peers & is -39.58% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $4.67
QRTEA is -38.31% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $51.39
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $41.69
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.08
Price to sales ratio is -96.05% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.38
Price to free cash flow: 2.25
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-58.78%
Net income growth rate is -186.46% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.37%
Dividend yeild: 217.01%
Previous Dividend: $1.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.25
Previous Dividend: $6.25
Expected next dividend best case: $1.71
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.79
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.55
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -1.04%
Expected next dividend payment date: 21/02/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/02/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 02/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 22/11/2021
Previous dividend record date: 15/11/2021
Previous dividend declaration date: 11/04/2021
Dividend History:
2021-11-12--$1.25
2020-11-27--$1.50
2020-08-28--$1.50
2021-05-28--$2.00
2020-09-15--$1.50
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -91.13% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
180.24%
Net debt to equity ratio:
225.14%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.02%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -49.93% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.66
Interest coverage ratio is -74.47% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.76%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.62%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.393
Statistical significance of correlation:
QRTEA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.441
Stock price is -10.96% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.441
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.126
Kurtosis
17.018
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.433
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
QRTEA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
134%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.03%
Operating profit margin is -24.29% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
134%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.36%
Effective tax rate is 168.99% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is -76.20% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.85%
Return on assets (ROA) is -71.02% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.97
Current ratio is -51.43% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
3
Cash conversion cycle is -95.47% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
11.11%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
509.8K
Each employee generates -33% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
46.8K
Each employee generates -75% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
5.1K
Each employee generates -97% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.3K
Each employee generates -630% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
436.6K
Each employee generates -630% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
QRTEA
QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEB)
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHB)
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHA)
VISTEON CORPORATION (XNAS:VC)
FRONTDOOR, INC. (XNAS:FTDR)
LGI HOMES, INC. (XNAS:LGIH)
RED ROCK RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:RRR)
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:HOVNP)
DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC. (XNAS:DORM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
13.59B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.04B
4.55B
-
-
1.94B
-
1.08B
3.02B
-
468.00M
539.00M
1.25B
820.00M
135.00M
431.00M
105.00M
135.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
130.00M
Differed Income Tax :
29.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
15.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 366000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
365.00M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 179000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
608.00M
-
608.00M
1.31B
1.77B
482.00M
4.17B
1.03B
6.31B
9.35B
-
-
1.26B
11.64B
-
15.81B
1.21B
1.90B
-
-
1.20B
4.31B
5.19B
2.04B
8.62B
-
12.93B
4.00M
2.98B
- 104000.0K
7.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
12.06B
2.88B
15.81B
-
7.09B
6.5B
12.00M
- 28000.00K
- 16000.00K
- 195000.00K
-
-
- 14000.00K
438.00M
229.00M
- 13000.00K
21.00M
617.00M
596.00M
- 179000.00K
- 43000.00K
- 222000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
QRTEA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$3.96
$4.37
$4.83
$5.33
$5.89