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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Quinstreet, Inc. (XNAS:QNST) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
QNST
Name:
QUINSTREET, INC. (XNAS:QNST)
Sector:
4.38M
Industry:
Advertising Agencies
CEO:
Mr. Douglas Valenti
Total Employees:
791
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2706.41% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF QUINSTREET, INC.(QNST) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ADVERTISING AGENCIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.7
One Month Price Target:
$11.76
Six Month Price Target :
$12.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$12.46
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.63
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.77
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.87
This week:
$9.84
This month :
$7.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
595.22M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
53.38M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.71%
-26.85%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.56
$13.80
$7.84
$9.60
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$13.23
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.85
$10.17
$10.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
QNST
Sharpe Ratio:
0.29%
Comparison:
QNST, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -84.53% lower than the industry
& is -87.17% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
QNST
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.38%
Yearly returns:
23.80%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -80.85% below industry average
Classification:
QNST, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
QNST has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.47%
Weekly Volatility:
7.75%
Monthly Volatility:
15.51%
Yearly Volatility:
53.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.64%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -52.80% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.10%
Weekly VaR:
-15.88%
Monthly VaR:
-31.76%
How Much Can the price of
QNST
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$8.44
This translates to price declining to:
$1.76
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
QNST is a 124.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 92.06% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.78% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
QNST
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.97
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.841
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.189
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.994
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.626
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.811
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.194
Beta is -18.81% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.076
Beta is -9.85% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.51%
Sustainable growth rate is -104.21% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.052
Alpha is -139.40% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -333% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
QNST
Equity cost of capital:
0.098
Equity cost of capital is -6.90% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.04%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.72%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.89%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.89%
WACC is 16.24% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.99
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.08
Annual revenue growth rate is -467.98% below industry average
EPS:
$0.05
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-57.03%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 293.85% higher than the Advertising Agencies industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.44
-
-
Debt per share
$0.14
EBITDA per share
$0.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
QNST
P/E Ratio:
212.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
60.55
P/E ratio is 251.10% higher than main peers & is 105.38% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $5.18
QNST is 126.06% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.06
Price to sales ratio is -69.73% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.08
Price to free cash flow: 26.46
Price to free cash flow ratio is -10.87% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
29.10%
Net income growth rate is -182.17% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2.42%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-32.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-22.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.21% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
23.05
Interest coverage ratio is 2472.04% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.69%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 34.67%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.377
Statistical significance of correlation:
QNST has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.498
Stock price is -24.26% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.498
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.046
Kurtosis
9.455
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.37
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
QNST
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
39%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.41%
Operating profit margin is -97.54% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
39%
Effective Tax Rate:
202.50%
Effective tax rate is 329.92% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-0.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is -94.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.30%
Return on assets (ROA) is -99.96% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.84
Current ratio is -30.09% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
12.5
Cash conversion cycle is -91.32% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-373.36%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
741.8K
Each employee generates 109% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
18.4K
Each employee generates -78% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1.7K
Each employee generates -105% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.5K
Each employee generates -156% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
302.3K
Each employee generates -156% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 36.17%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 220.32% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
QNST
Golden Independence Mining Corp (XCNQ:IGLD)
ORBCOMM INC. (XLON:0A7Z)
RIBBON COMMUNICATIONS INC. (XNAS:RBBN)
STAGWELL INC. (XNAS:STGW)
VIVID SEATS INC. (XNAS:SEAT)
BOSTON OMAHA CORPORATION (XNYS:BOC)
CONSOLIDATED COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CNSL)
ANTERIX INC. (XNAS:ATEX)
Trivago NV (XNAS:TRVG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
586.80M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
528.52M
58.28M
19.56M
28.10M
38.56M
10.46M
-
58.12M
6.00K
632.00K
12.65M
14.57M
2.43M
- 1314.00K
1.28M
2.60M
- 1314.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.20M
Differed Income Tax :
555.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.91M
Change in Working Capital :
- 7055.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 693.00K
Other Working Capital:
1.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
54.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.75M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
105.93M
-
105.93M
88.42M
-
8.47M
202.82M
17.14M
117.83M
56.16M
-
42.80M
5.19M
239.12M
-
441.93M
48.35M
-
-
34.00K
62.07M
110.46M
7.25M
- 18268.00K
31.78M
-
142.24M
54.00K
- 21873.00K
- 255.0K
321.77M
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
586.64M
299.70M
441.93M
-
7.25M
- 98680.0K
-
- 1374.00K
- 1374.00K
- 3847.00K
393.00K
-
-
- 5310.00K
- 8764.00K
- 5.00K
- 4390.00K
105.94M
110.33M
5.75M
- 1374.00K
4.38M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
QNST
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.26
$9.86
$10.50
$11.18
$11.91