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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Quidelortho Corporation (XNAS:QDEL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
QDEL
Name:
QUIDELORTHO CORPORATION (XNAS:QDEL)
Sector:
478.57M
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Douglas Bryant
Total Employees:
1,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1695.80% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF QUIDELORTHO CORPORATION(QDEL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
78.53
One Month Price Target:
$78.58
Six Month Price Target :
$78.83
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$79.13
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$78.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$79.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$71.56
This week:
$62.94
This month :
$47.36
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.43B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
66.95M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
31.75%
-28.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$110.86
$95.97
$46.20
$61.09
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$91.13
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.95
$65.89
$69.11
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
QDEL
Sharpe Ratio:
2.29%
Comparison:
QDEL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -8.90% lower than the industry
& ratio is 0.65% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
QDEL
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.55%
Monthly returns:
2.18%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -6.12% below industry average
Classification:
QDEL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.04
Statistical test of Returns:
QDEL has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.37%
Weekly Volatility:
9.78%
Monthly Volatility:
19.56%
Yearly Volatility:
67.77%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.54%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.88%
Weekly VaR:
-19.85%
Monthly VaR:
-39.69%
How Much Can the price of
QDEL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$51.95
This translates to price declining to:
$11.78
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
QDEL is a 180.14% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 140.00% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 13.31% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
QDEL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.11
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.108
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.665
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.564
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.082
Beta is -89.55% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is -90.43% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
60.20%
Sustainable growth rate is 13.97% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.223
Alpha is 33.64% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1419% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
QDEL
Equity cost of capital:
0.039
Equity cost of capital is -65.09% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.82%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.82%
WACC is -55.85% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$34.73
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.18
Annual revenue growth rate is 65.17% above the industry average
EPS:
$23.45
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
109.77%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 308.95% higher than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$11.58
-
-
Debt per share
$2.03
EBITDA per share
$20.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
QDEL
P/E Ratio:
3.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
192.92
P/E ratio is -98.13% lower than main peers & is -90.31% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $871.79
QDEL is -90.99% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.26
Price to sales ratio is -76.21% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.18
Price to free cash flow: 6.78
Price to free cash flow ratio is -77.09% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
764.38%
Net income growth rate is -434.44% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.62%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-46.80%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-36.54%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
405.9
Interest coverage ratio is -1547.09% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
22.25%
Annual debt growth is -79% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.181
Statistical significance of correlation:
QDEL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -62.84% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.085
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.217
Kurtosis
9.651
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.245
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
QDEL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
284%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
56.01%
Operating profit margin is -149.79% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
284%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.56%
Effective tax rate is 17.57% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
41.66%
Return on equity (ROE) is 98.30% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
32.53%
Return on assets (ROA) is -112.06% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
4.29
Current ratio is -13.67% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
36.4
Cash conversion cycle is -26.62% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates 290% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
850.6K
Each employee generates 2734% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
628.8K
Each employee generates 3831% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
299.1K
Each employee generates -13846% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
612.2K
Each employee generates -13846% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 13.54%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -851.77% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
QDEL
CRISPR Therapeutics Ltd (XNAS:CRSP)
HALOZYME THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:HALO)
DENALI THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:DNLI)
ZAI LAB LIMITED (XNAS:ZLAB)
ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:RARE)
BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORPORATION (XNAS:BPMC)
PREMIER, INC. (XNAS:PINC)
ICU MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:ICUI)
AMEDISYS, INC. (XNAS:AMED)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.33B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
616.58M
1.71B
98.77M
89.25M
295.73M
206.48M
-
394.49M
-
3.35M
58.46M
1.36B
1.30B
1.01B
1.30B
293.10M
1.01B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
16.78M
Differed Income Tax :
- 89.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.43M
Change in Working Capital :
- 13523.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 191452.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.43M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
500.97M
Investments in PP&E:
- 22402.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 15937.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.28B
44.27M
1.32B
589.96M
181.39M
22.50M
2.11B
489.31M
337.02M
91.58M
20.73M
20.23M
20.61M
979.48M
-
3.09B
157.47M
9.72M
212.24M
7.75M
317.72M
492.66M
135.67M
49.88M
185.55M
-
678.20M
42.00K
2.13B
239.0K
285.51M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.01B
2.41B
3.09B
65.00M
145.38M
- 1130153.0K
13.67M
-
- 24670.00K
- 91.00K
3.53M
-
-
- 6844.00K
- 3408.00K
- 109.00K
472.79M
1.28B
802.75M
500.97M
- 22402.00K
478.57M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
QDEL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$79.53
$80.13
$80.74
$81.35
$81.97