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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Qualys, Inc. (XNAS:QLYS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
QLYS
Name:
QUALYS, INC. (XNAS:QLYS)
Sector:
71.40M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Philippe Courtot
Total Employees:
1,962
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 2.74% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF QUALYS, INC.(QLYS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
146.99
One Month Price Target:
$147.49
Six Month Price Target :
$150.02
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$153.04
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$146.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$147.87
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$138.65
This week:
$128.35
This month :
$109.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.65B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
38.36M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.67%
-14.35%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$185.63
$167.66
$108.35
$126.32
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$161.82
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$157.98
$132.11
$136.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
QLYS
Sharpe Ratio:
3.96%
Comparison:
QLYS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 142.40% higher than the industry
& ratio is 73.88% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
QLYS
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.60%
Monthly returns:
2.41%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 101.24% above industry average
Classification:
QLYS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.1
Statistical test of Returns:
QLYS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.82%
Weekly Volatility:
6.31%
Monthly Volatility:
12.61%
Yearly Volatility:
43.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -60.40% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.67%
Weekly VaR:
-12.68%
Monthly VaR:
-25.36%
How Much Can the price of
QLYS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-87.85%
This translates to price declining to:
$116.06
This translates to price declining to:
$17.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
QLYS is a 78.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 53.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.37% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
QLYS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.635
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.898
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.578
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.461
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.425
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.214
Beta is -49.55% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -44.90% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.42%
Sustainable growth rate is -95.29% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.216
Alpha is 497.00% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1375% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
QLYS
Equity cost of capital:
0.073
Equity cost of capital is -31.76% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.93%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.13%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.90%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.90%
WACC is -7.27% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
13.22
Annual revenue growth rate is -35.21% below industry average
EPS:
$2.40
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.85
-
-
Debt per share
$0.87
EBITDA per share
$4.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
QLYS
P/E Ratio:
57.74
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
361.7
P/E ratio is -84.04% lower than main peers & is -11.49% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $156.57
QLYS is -6.12% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.18
Price to sales ratio is 20.01% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
13.22
Price to free cash flow: 30.29
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
23.67%
Net income growth rate is -99.72% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
7.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-28.35%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-14.85%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -94.14% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
313.74
Interest coverage ratio is -248.68% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-15.43%
Annual debt growth is -114% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.274
Statistical significance of correlation:
QLYS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -42.82% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.029
Kurtosis
5.155
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.095
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
QLYS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
314%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
28.97%
Operating profit margin is -344.05% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
314%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.05%
Effective tax rate is -26.41% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.53%
Return on equity (ROE) is -78.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.80%
Return on assets (ROA) is -411.68% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.8
Current ratio is -22.70% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
91.5
Cash conversion cycle is -18.70% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
12.22%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
218.1K
Each employee generates -45% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
82.2K
Each employee generates 26% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
49.0K
Each employee generates 134% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
36.4K
Each employee generates 84% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
123.0K
Each employee generates 84% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 12.05%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -564.65% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
QLYS
MACOM TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MTSI)
Jamf Holding Corp. (XNAS:JAMF)
VICOR CORPORATION (XNAS:VICR)
TENABLE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:TENB)
VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC. (XNAS:VIAV)
ITRON, INC. (XNAS:ITRI)
VNET Group, Inc. (XNAS:VNET)
SUNPOWER CORPORATION (XNAS:SPWR)
LIVEPERSON, INC. (XNAS:LPSN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�21%
Hold�46%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
427.84M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
91.76M
336.08M
86.65M
46.87M
125.51M
78.64M
-
212.15M
2.06M
514.00K
35.80M
161.26M
123.92M
96.14M
124.95M
28.81M
96.14M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.98M
Differed Income Tax :
- 5095.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
11.75M
Change in Working Capital :
37.09M
Accounts Receivables:
19.56M
Other Working Capital:
7.43M
Other Non-Cash Items:
908.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
79.04M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7639.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 81800.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
166.29M
290.85M
457.14M
89.29M
-
26.75M
573.18M
97.95M
7.45M
4.84M
82.36M
29.99M
18.79M
241.37M
-
814.55M
2.48M
12.04M
-
266.93M
37.08M
318.54M
33.28M
4.98M
69.38M
-
387.92M
39.00K
- 58410.00K
- 670.0K
485.68M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
303.91M
426.64M
814.55M
373.21M
45.33M
- 120959.0K
84.92M
-
- 4524.00K
-
-
- 46581.00K
-
1.02M
- 45557.00K
-
28.96M
167.49M
138.53M
79.04M
- 7639.00K
71.40M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
QLYS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$153.81
$361.61
$376.50
$392.00
$408.14