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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pvh Corp. (XNYS:PVH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PVH
Name:
PVH CORP. (XNYS:PVH)
Sector:
- 238200.00K
Industry:
Apparel Manufacturing
CEO:
Mr. Emanuel Chirico
Total Employees:
19,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -96.09% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PVH CORP.(PVH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
54.5425
One Month Price Target:
$55.16
Six Month Price Target :
$58.27
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$62.01
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$54.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$54.93
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$49.81
This week:
$43.97
This month :
$33.4
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.65B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
66.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.14%
-21.86%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$76.50
$66.52
$32.58
$42.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$63.28
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$61.15
$45.78
$47.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PVH
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.29%
Comparison:
PVH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -67.39% lower than the industry
& is -112.82% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PVH
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
-0.02%
Monthly returns:
-0.07%
Yearly returns:
-3.61%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -76.82% below industry average
Classification:
PVH, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.06
Statistical test of Returns:
PVH has yielded a lower return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.22%
Weekly Volatility:
9.44%
Monthly Volatility:
18.87%
Yearly Volatility:
65.37%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.73%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 12.14% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.67%
Weekly VaR:
-19.39%
Monthly VaR:
-38.77%
How Much Can the price of
PVH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$35.82
This translates to price declining to:
$8.18
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PVH is a 173.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 134.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 17.42% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PVH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.261
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.784
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.071
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.181
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.146
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.632
Beta is 24.79% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.537
Beta is 32.48% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.14%
Sustainable growth rate is -24.90% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.179
Alpha is 3.76% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1142% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PVH
Equity cost of capital:
0.171
Equity cost of capital is 25.00% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.00%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.09%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.65%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.65%
WACC is 22.01% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$137.37
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.75
Annual revenue growth rate is -118.88% below industry average
EPS:
$13.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.71%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -41.99% lower than the Apparel Manufacturing industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.87
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -74.44%
Equity growth rate per share is -438.01% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$65.60
EBITDA per share
$21.01
Valuation Analysis Today of
PVH
P/E Ratio:
4.17
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.31
P/E ratio is -87.47% lower than main peers & is -81.92% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $319.81
PVH is -82.95% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $20.86
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.91
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.4
Price to sales ratio is -79.63% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.75
Price to free cash flow: 5.53
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-337.95%
Net income growth rate is -72.46% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.28%
Previous Dividend: $0.04
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.04
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Expected next dividend best case: $0.04
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.04
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.04
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/06/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/08/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-07--$0.04
2021-11-23--$0.04
2019-11-26--$0.04
2022-03-10--$0.04
2020-03-19--$0.04
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -98.08% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
90.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
81.19%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.58%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -38.87% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.92
Interest coverage ratio is -92.89% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
16.21%
Annual debt growth is -40% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.31%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.629
Statistical significance of correlation:
PVH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.577
Stock price is 9.00% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.577
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.06
Kurtosis
6.903
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.558
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PVH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
232%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.57%
Operating profit margin is 61.84% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
232%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.79%
Effective tax rate is -97.57% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is 33.55% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.76%
Return on assets (ROA) is 44.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.46
Current ratio is -36.39% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-29.9
Cash conversion cycle is -144.02% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.09%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
484.1K
Each employee generates -12% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
74.0K
Each employee generates 15% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
51.9K
Each employee generates 29% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 12.5K
Each employee generates 7% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
485.2K
Each employee generates 7% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PVH
ARENA MINERALS INC. (XTSX:AN)
PLANET FITNESS, INC. (XNYS:PLNT)
BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC. (XNYS:BFAM)
BRUNSWICK CORPORATION (XNYS:BC)
SKECHERS U.S.A., INC. (XNYS:SKX)
BOYD GAMING CORPORATION (XNYS:BYD)
TOLL BROTHERS, INC. (XNYS:TOL)
Polaris Inc. (XNYS:PII)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�33%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/1/22
Revenue:
9.20B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.86B
5.33B
-
-
4.45B
-
-
4.45B
4.50M
101.10M
312.50M
1.41B
879.80M
985.50M
993.20M
7.80M
985.50M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
77.60M
Differed Income Tax :
31.30M
Stock Based Compensation :
10.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 432800.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 211700.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 700.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
24.20M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 189100.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 49100.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/2/21
2022
Q1
913.20M
-
913.20M
883.30M
1.45B
235.60M
3.48B
2.40B
2.95B
3.51B
-
57.10M
302.50M
9.22B
-
12.70B
1.02B
449.60M
-
46.40M
868.70M
2.39B
4.39B
628.70M
5.47B
-
7.86B
86.50M
3.71B
- 512800.0K
1.55B
May 2, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
8.32B
4.84B
12.70B
-
4.84B
3.9B
-
-
- 49100.00K
- 505100.00K
-
- 9200.00K
-
14.70M
- 499600.00K
- 400.00K
- 738200.00K
913.20M
1.65B
- 189100.00K
- 49100.00K
- 238200.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PVH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$62.32
$207.52
$235.91
$268.19
$304.88