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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Public Storage (XNYS:PSA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PSA
Name:
PUBLIC STORAGE (XNYS:PSA)
Sector:
-
Industry:
REIT�Industrial
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Russell
Total Employees:
5,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -15.46% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC STORAGE(PSA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
332.99
One Month Price Target:
$333.63
Six Month Price Target :
$336.84
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$340.69
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$332.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$334.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$321.09
This week:
$306.37
This month :
$279.75
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
59.58B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
175.54M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
6.36%
-11.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$388.17
$362.46
$277.81
$303.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$354.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$348.60
$311.82
$317.38
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PSA
Sharpe Ratio:
4.17%
Comparison:
PSA, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 72.40% higher than the industry
& ratio is 83.12% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PSA
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.42%
Monthly returns:
1.66%
Yearly returns:
14.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 41.97% above industry average
Classification:
PSA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.34
Statistical test of Returns:
PSA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.78%
Weekly Volatility:
3.98%
Monthly Volatility:
7.97%
Yearly Volatility:
27.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.93%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 8.47% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.57%
Weekly VaR:
-7.99%
Monthly VaR:
-15.99%
How Much Can the price of
PSA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-13%
Worst case (decline):
-55.38%
This translates to price declining to:
$289.10
This translates to price declining to:
$148.57
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PSA is a 12.84% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -3.33% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.06% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PSA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.34
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.638
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.902
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.456
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.543
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.983
Beta is -64.99% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.735
Beta is -53.20% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.49%
Sustainable growth rate is 6.24% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.145
Alpha is 145.98% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 920% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PSA
Equity cost of capital:
0.055
Equity cost of capital is -32.73% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.46%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.15%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.15%
WACC is -33.26% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$20.63
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.96
Annual revenue growth rate is 45.24% above the industry average
EPS:
$10.29
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.58%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 18.28% higher than the REIT�Industrial industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.13
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -2.01%
Equity growth rate per share is -116.39% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$42.39
EBITDA per share
$15.45
Valuation Analysis Today of
PSA
P/E Ratio:
28.37
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
42.24
P/E ratio is -32.83% lower than main peers & is -57.86% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $692.74
PSA is -51.93% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $163.94
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $145.27
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
16.14
Price to sales ratio is 20.51% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.96
Price to free cash flow: 32.86
Price to free cash flow ratio is -6.02% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
13.53%
Net income growth rate is -27.74% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 2.40%
Previous Dividend: $2.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $2.00
Previous Dividend: $8.00
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $2.00
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$2.00
2021-12-14--$2.00
2021-06-14--$2.00
2022-03-15--$2.00
2021-09-14--$2.00
2021-03-15--$2.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
76.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
67.03%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.05%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.73%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -75.04% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
24.96
Interest coverage ratio is -49708.69% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
193.73%
Annual debt growth is 1660% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.571
Statistical significance of correlation:
PSA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.617
Stock price is -7.50% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.617
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.056
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.058
Kurtosis
5.598
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.877
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PSA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
295%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
55.15%
Operating profit margin is 71.56% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
295%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.00%
Return on equity (ROE) is 152.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is 196.54% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
2.02
Current ratio is -30.47% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
624.5K
Each employee generates -62% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
467.5K
Each employee generates -67% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
351.1K
Each employee generates -48% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.0K
-
Assets/Capital per employee
46.7K
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -16.60%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -235.08% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PSA
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP, INC. (XNYS:SPG)
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP, INC. (XNYS:SPG)
DIGITAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:DLR)
CROWN CASTLE INC. (XNYS:CCI)
REALTY INCOME CORPORATION (XNYS:O)
WELLTOWER INC. (XNYS:WELL)
CBRE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:CBRE)
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:AVB)
EQUITY RESIDENTIAL (XNYS:EQR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�58%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.62B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
953.18M
2.67B
6.80M
88.11M
88.11M
-
576.40M
671.32M
9.45M
108.65M
566.57M
2.71B
2.00B
2.04B
2.04B
-
2.04B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 516295.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
940.52M
-
940.52M
-
-
-
940.52M
-
-
271.13M
-
-
-
271.13M
17.03B
17.70B
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.44B
-
7.44B
15.34B
7.90B
17.52M
- 436101.00K
- 60382.0K
10.18B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.62B
9.70B
17.59B
-
7.44B
6.5B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
761.29M
-
-
-
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PSA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$342.39
$350.31
$358.41
$366.70
$375.18