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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (XNYS:PEG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PEG
Name:
PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INCORPORATED (XNYS:PEG)
Sector:
- 214000.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Diversified
CEO:
Mr. Ralph Izzo
Total Employees:
12,684
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -880.69% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INCORPORATED(PEG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
64.01
One Month Price Target:
$64.21
Six Month Price Target :
$65.24
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$66.46
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$63.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$64.23
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$61.64
This week:
$58.71
This month :
$53.4
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
31.69B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
498.86M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.63%
-11.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$75.02
$69.97
$53.00
$58.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$68.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$67.25
$59.68
$60.77
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PEG
Sharpe Ratio:
1.18%
Comparison:
PEG, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -31.43% lower than the industry
& is -48.42% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PEG
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.60%
Yearly returns:
11.80%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -38.54% below industry average
Classification:
PEG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.65
Statistical test of Returns:
PEG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.82%
Weekly Volatility:
4.07%
Monthly Volatility:
8.13%
Yearly Volatility:
28.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.22% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.71%
Weekly VaR:
-8.28%
Monthly VaR:
-16.57%
How Much Can the price of
PEG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-57.40%
This translates to price declining to:
$54.85
This translates to price declining to:
$27.27
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PEG is a 16.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 0.19% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -18.98% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PEG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.648
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.916
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.314
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.475
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.624
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.568
Beta is 0.27% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.572
Beta is -0.39% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.002
Alpha is -95.72% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 13% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PEG
Equity cost of capital:
0.071
Equity cost of capital is -0.21% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.88%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.56%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.02%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.02%
WACC is -14.74% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.33
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.35
Annual revenue growth rate is -96.12% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.58
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.30%
Equity growth rate per share is 853.97% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$34.38
EBITDA per share
-$0.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
PEG
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
44.61
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
PEG is -134.69% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $45.43
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $37.81
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.49
Price to sales ratio is 16.12% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.35
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-145.06%
Net income growth rate is 355.46% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -20.88%
Dividend yeild: 3.28%
Previous Dividend: $0.54
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.54
Previous Dividend: $2.10
Expected next dividend best case: $0.56
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.52
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.50
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.42%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-08--$0.54
2021-12-08--$0.51
2021-06-07--$0.51
2022-03-09--$0.54
2021-09-07--$0.51
2021-03-08--$0.51
Dividend growth rate is -52.68% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
126.14%
Net debt to equity ratio:
131.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
35.90%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.10% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.33
Interest coverage ratio is -110.61% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
12.20%
Annual debt growth is -88% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.70%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.636
Statistical significance of correlation:
PEG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.609
Stock price is 4.47% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.609
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.039
Kurtosis
7.379
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.077
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PEG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
89%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-18.03%
Operating profit margin is -356.73% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
89%
Effective Tax Rate:
35.36%
Effective tax rate is 9.54% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-9.55%
Return on equity (ROE) is -219.67% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-2.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is -226.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.89
Current ratio is -78.33% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-28.9
Cash conversion cycle is -137.70% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
721.1K
Each employee generates -19% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 12.9K
Each employee generates -106% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 102.3K
Each employee generates -311% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 16.9K
Each employee generates 4% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.4M
Each employee generates 4% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PEG
AMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:AWK)
Eversource Energy (XNYS:ES)
WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC. (XNYS:WEC)
PG&E CORPORATION (XNYS:PCG)
EDISON INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:EIX)
SEMPRA ENERGY (XNYS:SRE)
FIRSTENERGY CORP. (XNYS:FE)
DTE ENERGY COMPANY (XNYS:DTE)
AMEREN CORPORATION (XNYS:AEE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�25%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
9.15B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.96B
2.19B
-
-
-
-
1.19B
1.19B
73.00M
499.00M
1.35B
- 163000.00K
- 1649000.00K
- 1298000.00K
- 2008000.00K
- 710000.00K
- 1298000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
333.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 340000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 242000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 663000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
723.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
472.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 686000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 510000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.60B
-
1.60B
1.93B
538.00M
653.00M
4.73B
34.93B
-
22.00M
3.24B
-
4.85B
43.05B
-
47.77B
956.00M
2.38B
312.00M
-
1.96B
5.29B
17.15B
6.27B
28.88B
-
34.18B
4.98B
10.37B
- 410000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
8.15B
13.60B
47.77B
-
19.53B
17.9B
501.00M
1.88B
1.18B
- 1843000.00K
-
- 500000.00K
- 271000.00K
1.74B
- 876000.00K
-
779.00M
1.64B
863.00M
472.00M
- 686000.00K
- 214000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PEG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$66.79
$30.50
$31.67
$32.88
$34.14