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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ptc Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:PTCT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PTCT
Name:
PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTCT)
Sector:
- 178850.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Stuart Peltz
Total Employees:
1,252
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 18.74% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC.(PTCT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
51.88
One Month Price Target:
$52.05
Six Month Price Target :
$52.89
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$53.91
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$51.63
Price Upper limit ($) :
$52.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.49
This week:
$44.3
This month :
$36.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
71.54M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.92%
-26.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$67.61
$60.38
$36.15
$43.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$58.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.49
$45.71
$47.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PTCT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.69%
Comparison:
PTCT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -13.04% lower than the industry
& is -25.81% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PTCT
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.26%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -39.90% below industry average
Classification:
PTCT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.74
Statistical test of Returns:
PTCT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.21%
Weekly Volatility:
7.18%
Monthly Volatility:
14.36%
Yearly Volatility:
49.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.86%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -42.15% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.53%
Weekly VaR:
-14.61%
Monthly VaR:
-29.22%
How Much Can the price of
PTCT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$38.85
This translates to price declining to:
$7.78
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PTCT is a 106.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 76.68% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -32.44% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PTCT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.58
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.621
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.878
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.182
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.597
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.779
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.114
Beta is -47.80% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -49.49% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.080
Alpha is -43.43% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 511% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PTCT
Equity cost of capital:
0.071
Equity cost of capital is -35.37% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-2.23%
Before-tax cost of debt:
16.98%
After-tax cost of debt:
13.42%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
13.42%
WACC is -0.85% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-40.97
Annual revenue growth rate is -94.02% below industry average
EPS:
-$7.38
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
20.28%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 103.19% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$5.22
EBITDA per share
-$4.82
Valuation Analysis Today of
PTCT
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
451.01
-
-
PTCT is -107.83% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.52
Price to sales ratio is -83.91% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-40.97
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
169.91%
Net income growth rate is 140.72% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-412.10%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-428.31%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.74%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.56%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-3.82
Interest coverage ratio is -96.78% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
27.34%
Annual debt growth is -80% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.34%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.328
Statistical significance of correlation:
PTCT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -3.59% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.045
Kurtosis
9.13
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.365
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PTCT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
377%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-63.72%
Operating profit margin is -85.14% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
377%
Effective Tax Rate:
-1.94%
Effective tax rate is -134.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
576.26%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1105.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-29.01%
Return on assets (ROA) is 42.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.62
Current ratio is -79.95% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
119
Cash conversion cycle is -77.68% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.09%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
454.8K
Each employee generates -72% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 275.4K
Each employee generates -171% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 416.9K
Each employee generates -426% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 142.9K
Each employee generates -197% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
819.2K
Each employee generates -197% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 13.20%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -467.88% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PTCT
NUVASIVE, INC. (XNAS:NUVA)
PACIRA BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:PCRX)
RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RXRX)
Tinkoff Nasdaq Biotekh BPIFRFI (MISX:TBIO)
CHEMOCENTRYX, INC. (XNAS:CCXI)
ATRICURE, INC. (XNAS:ATRC)
IOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:IOVA)
KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KYMR)
AXONICS, INC. (XNAS:AXNX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
569.38M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
33.36M
536.02M
546.25M
-
297.95M
-
66.95M
911.15M
-
90.38M
76.86M
- 344803.00K
- 362821.00K
- 521985.00K
- 512041.00K
9.94M
- 521985.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
26.31M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
26.59M
Change in Working Capital :
- 37183.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 28372.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.60M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 97404.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 9312.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 39035.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
144.18M
443.62M
587.79M
141.29M
15.28M
29.65M
774.01M
135.18M
82.34M
763.67M
-
-
44.40M
1.03B
-
1.80B
18.37M
158.86M
4.55M
-
299.55M
476.78M
373.28M
903.00M
1.41B
-
1.89B
71.00K
- 2224683.00K
- 18608.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
944.50M
- 90581.00K
1.80B
-
532.15M
388.0M
169.52M
- 72134.00K
49.04M
- 1276.00K
-
-
-
2.44M
1.17M
1.65M
- 45540.00K
151.68M
197.22M
- 97404.00K
- 81446.00K
- 178850.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PTCT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$54.08
$56.19
$58.39
$60.67
$63.04