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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ptc Inc. (XNAS:PTC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PTC
Name:
PTC INC. (XNAS:PTC)
Sector:
133.92M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. James Heppelmann
Total Employees:
6,709
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -89.92% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PTC INC.(PTC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
115.05
One Month Price Target:
$115.8
Six Month Price Target :
$119.58
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$124.1
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$114.65
Price Upper limit ($) :
$115.68
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$108.95
This week:
$101.4
This month :
$87.76
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.47B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
117.47M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.18%
-10.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$143.35
$130.23
$86.75
$99.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$125.96
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$123.15
$104.11
$106.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PTC
Sharpe Ratio:
3.42%
Comparison:
PTC, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 255.10% higher than the industry
& ratio is 50.17% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PTC
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.49%
Monthly returns:
1.98%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 138.86% above industry average
Classification:
PTC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.39
Statistical test of Returns:
PTC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.63%
Weekly Volatility:
5.88%
Monthly Volatility:
11.77%
Yearly Volatility:
40.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.32%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -87.81% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.30%
Weekly VaR:
-11.86%
Monthly VaR:
-23.72%
How Much Can the price of
PTC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-82.17%
This translates to price declining to:
$92.22
This translates to price declining to:
$20.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PTC is a 67.43% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 43.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -26.81% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PTC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.17
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.807
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.142
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.573
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.608
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.635
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.382
Beta is -15.28% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -12.32% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
27.12%
Sustainable growth rate is -12.81% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.126
Alpha is -632.17% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 800% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PTC
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is -9.16% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.33%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.84%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.84%
WACC is -14.97% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.92
Annual revenue growth rate is -62.78% below industry average
EPS:
$4.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.28
-
-
Debt per share
$14.01
EBITDA per share
$4.68
Valuation Analysis Today of
PTC
P/E Ratio:
27.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
37.38
P/E ratio is -26.90% lower than main peers & is -84.61% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $717.49
PTC is -83.97% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.19
Price to sales ratio is -37.31% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.92
Price to free cash flow: 35.05
Price to free cash flow ratio is -64.00% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
813.89%
Net income growth rate is 233.32% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
84.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
69.09%
Debt to assets ratio:
37.24%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.54%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -32.13% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.36
Interest coverage ratio is -72.97% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
35.07%
Annual debt growth is -96% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.435
Statistical significance of correlation:
PTC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -13.52% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.041
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.062
Kurtosis
5.27
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.331
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PTC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
318%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.82%
Operating profit margin is -213.88% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
318%
Effective Tax Rate:
-24.03%
Effective tax rate is -191.10% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
24.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is -287.80% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.86%
Return on assets (ROA) is -382.66% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.61
Current ratio is -46.23% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
95.2
Cash conversion cycle is 0.43% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 22.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
280.1K
Each employee generates -19% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
81.9K
Each employee generates 662% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
71.5K
Each employee generates -510% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
20.0K
Each employee generates -357% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
543.4K
Each employee generates -357% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 16.89%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1004.89% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PTC
Logitech International SA (XNAS:LOGI)
ROBINHOOD MARKETS, INC. (XNAS:HOOD)
SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:SEDG)
HASHICORP, INC. (XNAS:HCP)
COGNEX CORPORATION (XNAS:CGNX)
JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES, INC. (XNAS:JKHY)
Open Text Corporation (XNAS:OTEX)
Weibo Corporation (XNAS:WB)
LYFT, INC. (XNAS:LYFT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�29%
Hold�13%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/1/22
Revenue:
1.88B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
383.28M
1.50B
319.01M
195.08M
700.84M
505.76M
32.13M
1.05B
-
38.27M
124.41M
549.62M
410.09M
479.91M
386.93M
- 92981.00K
479.91M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.95M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
45.94M
Change in Working Capital :
24.80M
Accounts Receivables:
57.32M
Other Working Capital:
- 21334.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 10039.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
137.74M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
296.13M
-
296.13M
478.67M
-
-
774.80M
247.11M
-
-
-
-
844.96M
3.65B
995.22M
4.42B
-
-
-
481.07M
-
481.07M
1.65B
339.69M
2.47B
-
2.47B
-
-
- 98387.0K
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
1.44B
1.95B
4.42B
-
1.65B
1.3B
6.47M
- 3812.00K
2.66M
-
-
- 119739.00K
-
- 49404.00K
- 169143.00K
- 1661.00K
- 30407.00K
296.64M
327.05M
137.74M
- 3812.00K
133.92M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PTC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$142.92
$154.16
$166.29
$179.38
$193.49