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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:PTGX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PTGX
Name:
PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTGX)
Sector:
- 37939.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Dinesh Patel
Total Employees:
127
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -12.50% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC.(PTGX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
8.85
One Month Price Target:
$8.98
Six Month Price Target :
$9.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.77
Price Upper limit ($) :
$8.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$7.56
This week:
$5.96
This month :
$3.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
411.82M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
49.08M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
93.86%
-62.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.83
$12.06
$2.87
$5.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.56
$6.54
$7.14
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PTGX
Sharpe Ratio:
3.83%
Comparison:
PTGX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 96.80% higher than the industry
& ratio is 67.89% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PTGX
Daily returns:
0.29%
Weekly returns:
1.43%
Monthly returns:
5.72%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 172.07% above industry average
Classification:
PTGX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.3
Statistical test of Returns:
PTGX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
7.24%
Weekly Volatility:
16.19%
Monthly Volatility:
32.38%
Yearly Volatility:
112.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.48% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-14.59%
Weekly VaR:
-32.61%
Monthly VaR:
-65.23%
How Much Can the price of
PTGX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-54%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.04
This translates to price declining to:
$1.33
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PTGX is a 360.37% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 294.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 52.30% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PTGX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.129
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.597
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.63
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.743
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.651
Beta is 54.24% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 121.10% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.480
Alpha is 238.63% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3058% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PTGX
Equity cost of capital:
0.206
Equity cost of capital is 86.54% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.15%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.49%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.49%
WACC is 124.00% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.44
Annual revenue growth rate is -110.00% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-3.12%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -131.23% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.06
EBITDA per share
-$2.43
Valuation Analysis Today of
PTGX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
239.77
-
-
PTGX is -103.81% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.26
Price to sales ratio is -77.13% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.44
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
55.73%
Net income growth rate is -21.05% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-30.86%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.88%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-26.74%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.91% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-710.3
Interest coverage ratio is 500.21% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.69%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.178
Statistical significance of correlation:
PTGX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -47.66% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.051
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.213
Kurtosis
76.495
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
3.921
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PTGX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-262.18%
Operating profit margin is -38.84% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-40.59%
Return on equity (ROE) is -29.21% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-35.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is 72.36% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
7.86
Current ratio is -2.92% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.85%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
369.2K
Each employee generates -77% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 939.6K
Each employee generates -344% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 964.4K
Each employee generates -854% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 298.7K
Each employee generates -303% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
53.3K
Each employee generates -303% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 69.12%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2026.66% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PTGX
CODEXIS, INC. (XNAS:CDXS)
REVOLUTION MEDICINES, INC. (XNAS:RVMD)
CNST
DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNAS:DVAX)
CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CLDX)
VERICEL CORPORATION (XNAS:VCEL)
HESKA CORPORATION (XNAS:HSKA)
EDITAS MEDICINE, INC. (XNAS:EDIT)
IVERIC bio, Inc. (XNAS:ISEE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
46.89M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
138.08M
31.75M
31.75M
-
-
169.83M
509.00K
168.00K
2.98M
- 119331.00K
- 122935.00K
- 122483.00K
- 122483.00K
-
- 122483.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
833.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
5.94M
Change in Working Capital :
- 23862.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 1352.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
358.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 37666.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 273.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 55832.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
98.48M
206.81M
305.29M
28.03M
-
8.21M
341.52M
6.55M
-
-
-
-
225.00K
6.77M
-
348.30M
7.16M
2.28M
-
768.00K
33.25M
43.46M
3.06M
-
3.06M
-
46.52M
-
- 430292.00K
- 472.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
169.83M
301.78M
348.30M
-
5.34M
- 93140.0K
51.63M
-
- 4476.00K
-
14.55M
-
-
2.37M
16.93M
29.00K
- 25188.00K
98.70M
123.89M
- 37666.00K
- 273.00K
- 37939.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PTGX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.39
$12.17
$14.25
$16.69
$19.55