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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Prologis, Inc. (XNYS:PLD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PLD
Name:
PROLOGIS, INC. (XNYS:PLD)
Sector:
841.53M
Industry:
REIT�Industrial
CEO:
Mr. Hamid Moghadam
Total Employees:
2,053
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PROLOGIS, INC.(PLD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
121.89
One Month Price Target:
$122.5
Six Month Price Target :
$125.58
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$129.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$121.52
Price Upper limit ($) :
$122.42
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$116.54
This week:
$109.93
This month :
$97.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
91.81B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
740.38M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.33%
-17.27%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$146.70
$135.24
$97.08
$108.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$131.50
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$129.05
$112.25
$114.73
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PLD
Sharpe Ratio:
2.74%
Comparison:
PLD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 13.08% higher than the industry
& ratio is 20.11% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PLD
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.37%
Yearly returns:
14.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 16.50% above industry average
Classification:
PLD, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.45
Statistical test of Returns:
PLD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.17%
Weekly Volatility:
4.85%
Monthly Volatility:
9.71%
Yearly Volatility:
33.62%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.74%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.92% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.39%
Weekly VaR:
-9.81%
Monthly VaR:
-19.63%
How Much Can the price of
PLD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-68.00%
This translates to price declining to:
$101.69
This translates to price declining to:
$39.01
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PLD is a 38.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 18.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.38% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PLD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.661
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.935
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.59
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.816
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.798
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.865
Beta is 4.09% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.735
Beta is 22.43% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.86%
Sustainable growth rate is -5.86% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.071
Alpha is 20.26% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 450% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PLD
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is 13.80% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.52
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.35
Annual revenue growth rate is 88.03% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.99
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.68%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 86.58% higher than the REIT�Industrial industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.00
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 27.92%
Equity growth rate per share is 127.16% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$7.73
Valuation Analysis Today of
PLD
P/E Ratio:
24.34
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
49.82
P/E ratio is -51.15% lower than main peers & is -63.85% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $335.93
PLD is -63.72% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $88.38
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $59.68
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
18.68
Price to sales ratio is 39.52% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.35
Price to free cash flow: 30.44
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
62.69%
Net income growth rate is 234.75% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 15.78%
Dividend yeild: 2.33%
Previous Dividend: $0.79
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.79
Previous Dividend: $2.84
Expected next dividend best case: $0.86
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.72
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.63
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.35%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.79
2021-12-13--$0.63
2021-06-15--$0.63
2022-03-17--$0.79
2021-09-16--$0.63
2021-03-18--$0.63
Dividend growth rate is -147.32% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
54.96%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-5.60%
Debt to assets ratio:
35.47%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -78.95% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
23.47
Interest coverage ratio is -46748.85% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.19%
Annual debt growth is -80% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.757
Statistical significance of correlation:
PLD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.617
Stock price is 22.68% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.617
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.026
Kurtosis
9.845
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.623
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PLD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
223%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
80.34%
Operating profit margin is 149.92% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
223%
Effective Tax Rate:
4.29%
Effective tax rate is 731.95% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is 31.12% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.23%
Return on assets (ROA) is 60.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
3.02
Current ratio is 4.04% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.11%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.4M
Each employee generates 43% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.8M
Each employee generates 99% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 169% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
409.9K
Each employee generates 113% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates 113% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PLD
AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION (XNYS:AMT)
CROWN CASTLE INC. (XNYS:CCI)
GNL-PB
SPG-PJ
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP, INC. (XNYS:SPG)
DIGITAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:DLR)
REALTY INCOME CORPORATION (XNYS:O)
WELLTOWER INC. (XNYS:WELL)
CBRE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:CBRE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�33%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.83B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
921.15M
2.69B
-
289.78M
289.78M
-
1.20B
1.49B
- 3029.00K
243.72M
1.58B
5.72B
3.88B
3.72B
4.15B
177.76M
3.72B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
396.65M
Differed Income Tax :
7.49M
Stock Based Compensation :
41.43M
Change in Working Capital :
3.08M
Accounts Receivables:
107.70M
Other Working Capital:
10.59B
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 756372.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
841.53M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.91B
8.68B
10.59B
-
-
-
10.59B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
49.19B
59.78B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
21.32B
21.32B
7.40M
408.81M
- 681120.0K
34.44B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.14B
34.17B
55.49B
-
-
- 1912750.0K
3.73M
279.70M
283.43M
- 332995.00K
-
-
- 587382.00K
1.16B
242.48M
- 10807.00K
1.36B
1.91B
556.12M
841.53M
-
841.53M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PLD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$129.91
$200.16
$212.27
$225.11
$238.72