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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Progress Software Corporation (XNAS:PRGS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PRGS
Name:
PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION (XNAS:PRGS)
Sector:
43.26M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Yogesh Gupta
Total Employees:
2,103
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -56.97% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION(PRGS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
46.29
One Month Price Target:
$46.55
Six Month Price Target :
$47.83
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$49.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$46.14
Price Upper limit ($) :
$46.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.27
This week:
$41.78
This month :
$37.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.01B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
43.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.91%
-9.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.65
$51.36
$36.93
$41.22
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$49.96
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.04
$42.61
$43.54
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PRGS
Sharpe Ratio:
1.29%
Comparison:
PRGS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 33.48% higher than the industry
& is -43.55% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PRGS
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.73%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -12.15% below industry average
Classification:
PRGS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
PRGS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.14%
Weekly Volatility:
4.78%
Monthly Volatility:
9.57%
Yearly Volatility:
33.14%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -47.78% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.36%
Weekly VaR:
-9.74%
Monthly VaR:
-19.49%
How Much Can the price of
PRGS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-67.51%
This translates to price declining to:
$38.51
This translates to price declining to:
$15.04
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PRGS is a 37.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.83% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -40.48% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PRGS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.99
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.739
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.045
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.41
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.461
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.538
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.102
Beta is -10.03% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -25.80% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.47%
Sustainable growth rate is -59.89% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.012
Alpha is -48.81% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -77% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PRGS
Equity cost of capital:
0.099
Equity cost of capital is -19.19% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.56%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.02%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.02%
WACC is -32.25% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.37
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.46
Annual revenue growth rate is -67.90% below industry average
EPS:
$2.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
44.77%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 63.65% higher than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.32
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 26.97%
Equity growth rate per share is 1663.76% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$14.64
EBITDA per share
$4.58
Valuation Analysis Today of
PRGS
P/E Ratio:
21.59
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
119.81
P/E ratio is -81.98% lower than main peers & is -87.84% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $380.06
PRGS is -87.82% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $40.01
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.55
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.46
Price to sales ratio is -69.82% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.46
Price to free cash flow: 10.72
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
28.14%
Net income growth rate is -88.48% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.15%
Dividend yeild: 1.51%
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.70
Expected next dividend best case: $0.18
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.61%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.18
2021-11-30--$0.18
2021-05-28--$0.18
2022-02-28--$0.18
2021-08-31--$0.18
2021-02-26--$0.18
Dividend growth rate is -106.19% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
172.72%
Net debt to equity ratio:
130.00%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.01%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.39%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -14.31% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.98
Interest coverage ratio is -77.46% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.27%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.444
Statistical significance of correlation:
PRGS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -11.78% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.001
Kurtosis
5.281
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.194
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PRGS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
339%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.41%
Operating profit margin is -222.18% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
339%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.06%
Effective tax rate is -31.54% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is -298.17% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.06%
Return on assets (ROA) is -283.70% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
1.21
Current ratio is -59.69% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
41.3
Cash conversion cycle is -56.47% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
8.50%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
276.4K
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
94.7K
Each employee generates 781% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
45.4K
Each employee generates -360% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
20.6K
Each employee generates -365% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
480.5K
Each employee generates -365% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 16.64%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 988.09% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PRGS
VIANT TECHNOLOGY INC. (XNAS:DSP)
NETSCOUT SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:NTCT)
DOMO, INC. (XNAS:DOMO)
Canaan Inc (XNAS:CAN)
TELOS CORPORATION (XNAS:TLS)
SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC. (XNAS:SMCI)
INFINERA CORPORATION (XNAS:INFN)
Sumo Logic Inc (XNAS:SUMO)
TLND
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/31/22
Revenue:
581.21M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
88.32M
492.90M
109.69M
71.44M
204.77M
133.33M
32.86M
347.33M
1.24M
16.63M
66.05M
199.18M
136.07M
95.47M
116.50M
21.04M
95.47M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
18.69M
Differed Income Tax :
2.22M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.11M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8135.00K
Accounts Receivables:
13.19M
Other Working Capital:
8.93M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.75M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
44.09M
Investments in PP&E:
- 831.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
2/28/22
2022
Q1
171.67M
1.66M
173.32M
113.64M
-
55.66M
342.62M
37.54M
673.04M
271.29M
-
3.80M
24.84M
1.01B
-
1.35B
8.04M
14.31M
-
209.77M
51.61M
283.73M
636.16M
7.20M
701.06M
-
984.79M
438.00K
93.66M
- 29016.0K
303.24M
February 28, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
435.64M
368.32M
1.35B
-
650.47M
478.8M
300.00K
-
- 531.00K
- 1719.00K
- 20906.00K
- 25000.00K
- 7784.00K
27.38M
- 28031.00K
729.00K
16.26M
171.67M
155.41M
44.09M
- 831.00K
43.26M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PRGS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$49.62
$149.72
$159.69
$170.32
$181.67