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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Premier Financial Corp. (XNAS:PFC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PFC
Name:
PREMIER FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:PFC)
Sector:
31.47M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Donald P. Hileman
Total Employees:
1,180
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 559.40% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PREMIER FINANCIAL CORP.(PFC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
27.17
One Month Price Target:
$27.36
Six Month Price Target :
$28.34
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.5
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$27.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$27.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.39
This week:
$23.2
This month :
$19.23
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
946.72M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
35.56M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.04%
-26.42%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.41
$31.64
$18.93
$22.70
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.61
$23.91
$24.73
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PFC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.84%
Comparison:
PFC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -31.99% lower than the industry
& is -63.34% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PFC
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.71%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -21.74% below industry average
Classification:
PFC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
PFC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.20%
Weekly Volatility:
7.15%
Monthly Volatility:
14.31%
Yearly Volatility:
49.57%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.44%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.10% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.54%
Weekly VaR:
-14.61%
Monthly VaR:
-29.23%
How Much Can the price of
PFC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.26
This translates to price declining to:
$4.08
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PFC is a 106.29% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 76.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.01% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PFC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.758
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.072
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.063
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.578
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.959
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
3.943
Beta is -67.61% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 32.54% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.32%
Sustainable growth rate is -8.88% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.034
Alpha is -389.54% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -214% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PFC
Equity cost of capital:
0.119
Equity cost of capital is 22.03% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.08%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.80%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.80%
WACC is 1.66% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.40
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.02
Annual revenue growth rate is -38.45% below industry average
EPS:
$3.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.83%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -9.90% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.60
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 69.33%
Equity growth rate per share is 79.03% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$6.61
EBITDA per share
$4.77
Valuation Analysis Today of
PFC
P/E Ratio:
9.69
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.75
P/E ratio is -34.30% lower than main peers & is -21.89% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.47
PFC is -27.50% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.71
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.66
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.24
Price to sales ratio is -24.33% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.02
Price to free cash flow: 5.90
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
54.55%
Net income growth rate is -0.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.68%
Dividend yeild: 4.23%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.15
Expected next dividend best case: $0.33
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.27
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.25
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.21%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.30
2021-11-10--$0.28
2021-05-06--$0.26
2022-02-10--$0.30
2021-08-19--$0.27
2021-02-11--$0.24
Dividend growth rate is -86.37% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
24.91%
Net debt to equity ratio:
8.61%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.10%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.07%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.14% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.87
Interest coverage ratio is 1332.61% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.14%
Annual debt growth is -57% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.459
Statistical significance of correlation:
PFC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -8.43% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.048
Kurtosis
11.882
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.298
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PFC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.68%
Operating profit margin is -70.17% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.27%
Effective tax rate is -10.57% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is -0.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is -36.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.68%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
253.0K
Each employee generates -33% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
143.8K
Each employee generates -36% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
94.4K
Each employee generates -33% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
26.7K
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PFC
Calamos Conv & High Inc (XNAS:CHY)
Nuveen Nasdaq 100 Dyn Ov (XNAS:QQQX)
STOCK YARDS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SYBT)
EBSB
GERMAN AMERICAN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GABC)
OAKTREE SPECIALTY LENDING CORPORATION (XNAS:OCSL)
CONNECTONE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CNOB)
STONEX GROUP INC. (XNAS:SNEX)
1ST SOURCE CORPORATION (XNAS:SRCE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
298.59M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
74.31M
-
113.24M
115.18M
-
-
-
242.81M
14.29M
17.38M
169.67M
-
111.41M
138.00M
26.59M
111.41M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.07M
Differed Income Tax :
193.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
760.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 8714.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 20838.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.34M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
32.01M
Investments in PP&E:
- 548.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 122459.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
153.77M
1.22B
1.37B
21.77M
-
-
-
54.68M
317.95M
43.41M
1.23B
-
-
1.65B
9.24B
7.59B
-
-
-
-
-
-
235.01M
-
235.01M
6.88B
6.65B
306.00K
459.09M
- 75497.0K
559.40M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
943.30M
7.59B
2.45B
235.01M
81.2M
32.30M
- 95119.00K
- 185827.00K
-
-
- 24245.00K
- 10787.00K
181.05M
146.01M
-
- 7800.00K
153.77M
161.57M
32.01M
- 548.00K
31.47M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PFC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.65
$42.23
$45.85
$49.79
$54.06