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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Premier, Inc. (XNAS:PINC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PINC
Name:
PREMIER, INC. (XNAS:PINC)
Sector:
34.14M
Industry:
Health Information Services
CEO:
Ms. Susan DeVore
Total Employees:
2,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -81.97% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PREMIER, INC.(PINC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HEALTH INFORMATION SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.23
One Month Price Target:
$35.3
Six Month Price Target :
$35.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$36.05
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.12
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.34
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.88
This week:
$32.21
This month :
$29.19
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
118.07M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.31%
-8.59%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.50
$38.65
$28.96
$31.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.11
$32.73
$33.35
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PINC
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.28%
Comparison:
PINC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -127.03% lower than the industry
& is -112.18% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PINC
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.07%
Yearly returns:
5.07%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -82.70% below industry average
Classification:
PINC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
PINC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.87%
Weekly Volatility:
4.18%
Monthly Volatility:
8.36%
Yearly Volatility:
28.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.50%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.12% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.84%
Weekly VaR:
-8.58%
Monthly VaR:
-17.15%
How Much Can the price of
PINC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-59.43%
This translates to price declining to:
$29.90
This translates to price declining to:
$14.29
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PINC is a 21.08% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 3.73% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -45.03% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PINC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.314
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.233
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.376
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.071
Beta is -67.55% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.87
Beta is -60.07% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.79%
Sustainable growth rate is -42.76% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.047
Alpha is 15.27% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -296% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PINC
Equity cost of capital:
0.055
Equity cost of capital is -39.30% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.99%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.97%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.56%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.56%
WACC is -39.46% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.33
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.79
Annual revenue growth rate is -115.02% below industry average
EPS:
$2.13
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.87
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -40.40%
Equity growth rate per share is 208.58% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$2.72
EBITDA per share
$4.03
Valuation Analysis Today of
PINC
P/E Ratio:
16.26
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
311.26
P/E ratio is -94.78% lower than main peers & is -95.55% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $778.41
PINC is -95.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $38.25
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $16.86
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.64
Price to sales ratio is -65.13% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.79
Price to free cash flow: 9.10
Price to free cash flow ratio is -91.75% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
296.54%
Net income growth rate is -83.08% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.47%
Dividend yeild: 2.27%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.80
Expected next dividend best case: $0.21
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.19
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.75%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.20
2021-11-30--$0.20
2021-05-28--$0.19
2022-02-28--$0.20
2021-08-31--$0.20
2021-02-26--$0.19
Dividend growth rate is -159.00% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
13.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
17.54%
Debt to assets ratio:
9.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
11.45%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -73.65% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
40.67
Interest coverage ratio is 169.98% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
280.26%
Annual debt growth is 574% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 24.06%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.298
Statistical significance of correlation:
PINC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.376
Stock price is -20.72% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.376
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.001
Kurtosis
7.939
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.499
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PINC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
227%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.21%
Operating profit margin is -196.36% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
227%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.86%
Effective tax rate is 10.38% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.27%
Return on equity (ROE) is -445.67% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is -523.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.1
Current ratio is -80.47% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
76.7
Cash conversion cycle is 56.08% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
605.3K
Each employee generates 45% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
182.8K
Each employee generates -546% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
100.9K
Each employee generates -227% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
13.1K
Each employee generates 4% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates 4% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 40.49%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -409.25% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PINC
I-MAB (XNAS:IMAB)
IOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:IOVA)
ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ALLO)
SAGE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SAGE)
ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:ALHC)
BEAM THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:BEAM)
CERTARA, INC. (XNAS:CERT)
COVETRUS, INC. (XNAS:CVET)
PROGYNY, INC. (XNAS:PGNY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�17%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.57B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
692.92M
880.79M
3.99M
150.40M
562.20M
-
43.78M
609.97M
-
11.69M
127.06M
475.29M
270.82M
262.36M
339.35M
74.19M
262.36M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
31.49M
Differed Income Tax :
18.70M
Stock Based Compensation :
7.55M
Change in Working Capital :
- 53208.00K
Accounts Receivables:
22.68M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 71348.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
55.19M
Investments in PP&E:
- 21050.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 26000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
184.42M
-
184.42M
411.16M
169.02M
68.13M
832.73M
272.78M
999.91M
385.75M
186.28M
763.13M
126.34M
2.73B
-
3.57B
89.53M
271.83M
-
33.21M
362.47M
757.04M
321.03M
160.76M
481.79M
-
1.24B
1.24M
266.60M
-
2.06B
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.30B
2.33B
3.57B
-
592.86M
408.4M
-
-
- 47050.00K
- 101692.00K
-
- 38151.00K
- 24852.00K
211.84M
47.14M
-
55.28M
184.42M
129.14M
55.19M
- 21050.00K
34.14M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PINC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$36.23
$37.08
$37.94
$38.83
$39.73