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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Precigen, Inc. (XNAS:PGEN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PGEN
Name:
Precigen, Inc. (XNAS:PGEN)
Sector:
- 20362.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Helen Sabzevari MPH, Ph.D.
Total Employees:
456
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 12.04% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PRECIGEN, INC.(PGEN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.38
One Month Price Target:
$2.41
Six Month Price Target :
$2.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$2.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.35
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.41
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.03
This week:
$1.6
This month :
$.82
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
474.58M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
208.15M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
83.33%
-22.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.00
$3.26
$0.76
$1.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.02
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2.86
$1.74
$1.90
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PGEN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.36%
Comparison:
PGEN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -30.07% lower than the industry
& is -40.34% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PGEN
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.53%
Monthly returns:
2.14%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1.61% above industry average
Classification:
PGEN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
PGEN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
7.20%
Weekly Volatility:
16.11%
Monthly Volatility:
32.21%
Yearly Volatility:
111.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -58.95% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-14.69%
Weekly VaR:
-32.84%
Monthly VaR:
-65.67%
How Much Can the price of
PGEN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-57%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.03
This translates to price declining to:
$0.36
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PGEN is a 363.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 297.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 51.49% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PGEN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.08
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.063
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.503
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.54
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.861
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.046
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.249
Beta is 66.86% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 80.90% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.082
Alpha is -42.14% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 522% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PGEN
Equity cost of capital:
0.174
Equity cost of capital is 57.82% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-10.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
-7.94%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-7.94%
WACC is -85.04% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.54
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.71
Annual revenue growth rate is -110.06% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-38.34%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -484.16% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.01
EBITDA per share
-$0.50
Valuation Analysis Today of
PGEN
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
285.7
-
-
PGEN is -105.64% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.45
Price to sales ratio is -89.02% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.71
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-88.15%
Net income growth rate is -224.89% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
285.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
233.28%
Debt to assets ratio:
62.77%
Net debt to assets ratio:
51.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 48.88% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.92
Interest coverage ratio is -104.16% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.225
Statistical significance of correlation:
PGEN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -33.96% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.063
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.265
Kurtosis
32.174
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
3.224
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PGEN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
169%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-71.40%
Operating profit margin is -83.34% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
169%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.16%
Effective tax rate is -102.86% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-127.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is 122.28% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-28.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is 37.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.7x
Current Ratio:
6.05
Current ratio is -25.24% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-13.3
Cash conversion cycle is -102.50% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 16.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
244.3K
Each employee generates -85% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 230.5K
Each employee generates -160% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 206.4K
Each employee generates -261% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 44.7K
Each employee generates -130% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
396.1K
Each employee generates -130% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 20.40%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -668.72% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PGEN
908 DEVICES INC. (XNAS:MASS)
NANO-X IMAGING LTD (XNAS:NNOX)
ENDO INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (OTCM:ENDPQ)
ALECTOR, INC. (XNAS:ALEC)
CULLINAN ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:CGEM)
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (XNAS:AUPH)
Theravance Biopharma, Inc. (XNAS:TBPH)
PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTGX)
CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CSII)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
111.38M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
62.51M
48.88M
52.38M
-
75.00M
-
58.93M
186.30M
1.35M
- 21361.00K
10.21M
- 105095.00K
- 79526.00K
- 94099.00K
- 94338.00K
154.00K
- 94099.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.29M
Differed Income Tax :
- 58.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.56M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8395.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3696.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 5229.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.07M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 18783.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1579.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
40.32M
71.82M
112.14M
24.87M
12.73M
5.20M
154.94M
43.59M
53.61M
51.43M
29.91M
-
2.08M
180.63M
-
335.57M
4.42M
1.95M
-
2.67M
16.57M
25.60M
210.62M
50.00K
236.13M
-
261.73M
-
- 1916135.00K
- 1699.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
248.81M
73.84M
335.57M
101.74M
212.57M
172.2M
18.00M
147.00K
16.57M
- 164.00K
-
-
-
1.00K
- 163.00K
- 230.00K
- 2608.00K
40.74M
43.34M
- 18783.00K
- 1579.00K
- 20362.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PGEN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$2.72
$3.10
$3.53
$4.03
$4.59