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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ppl Corporation (XNYS:PPL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PPL
Name:
PPL CORPORATION (XNYS:PPL)
Sector:
75.00M
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Electric
CEO:
Mr. William Spence
Total Employees:
5,607
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2.64% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PPL CORPORATION(PPL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED ELECTRIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.94
One Month Price Target:
$29.06
Six Month Price Target :
$29.68
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$30.42
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.04
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$27.72
This week:
$26.21
This month :
$23.49
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
21.22B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
736.18M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.25%
-13.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.60
$32.03
$23.28
$25.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$31.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.64
$26.68
$27.24
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PPL
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.50%
Comparison:
PPL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -142.30% lower than the industry
& is -121.74% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PPL
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
-0.01%
Monthly returns:
-0.03%
Yearly returns:
7.85%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -104.02% below industry average
Classification:
PPL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.88
Statistical test of Returns:
PPL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.05%
Weekly Volatility:
4.59%
Monthly Volatility:
9.17%
Yearly Volatility:
31.77%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.05%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.81% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.21%
Weekly VaR:
-9.42%
Monthly VaR:
-18.84%
How Much Can the price of
PPL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-65.27%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.11
This translates to price declining to:
$10.05
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PPL is a 32.99% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 13.93% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.07% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PPL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.76
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.726
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.026
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.687
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.545
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.724
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.581
Beta is 31.42% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.5
Beta is 52.78% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.087
Alpha is -781.80% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -553% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PPL
Equity cost of capital:
0.084
Equity cost of capital is 27.48% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.54%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.19%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.68%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.68%
WACC is 41.29% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.24
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.54
Annual revenue growth rate is 2503.43% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.84
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-79.70%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1188.68% higher than the Utilities�Regulated Electric industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.24
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 4.24%
Equity growth rate per share is -27.82% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$14.49
EBITDA per share
$4.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
PPL
P/E Ratio:
29.1
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
45.98
P/E ratio is -36.71% lower than main peers & is 5.11% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $23.26
PPL is 24.43% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.51
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.85
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.51
Price to sales ratio is 20.97% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.54
Price to free cash flow: 121.00
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-174.80%
Net income growth rate is 5834.41% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 48.34%
Dividend yeild: 4.34%
Previous Dividend: $0.23
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.23
Previous Dividend: $1.26
Expected next dividend best case: $0.29
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.16
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.38
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -3.87%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 19/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 21/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-17--$0.23
2021-12-09--$0.42
2021-06-09--$0.42
2022-03-09--$0.20
2021-09-09--$0.42
2021-03-09--$0.42
Dividend growth rate is 287.02% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
76.94%
Net debt to equity ratio:
56.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.28%
Net debt to assets ratio:
23.10%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.23% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.61
Interest coverage ratio is 40.03% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-54.78%
Annual debt growth is -219% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.663
Statistical significance of correlation:
PPL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.597
Stock price is 11.07% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.597
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.049
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.059
Kurtosis
11.046
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.159
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PPL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
182%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
24.11%
Operating profit margin is 107.26% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
182%
Effective Tax Rate:
85.48%
Effective tax rate is 324.51% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.57%
Return on equity (ROE) is -49.78% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.86%
Return on assets (ROA) is -19.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.88
Current ratio is -21.30% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-71.2
Cash conversion cycle is -175.41% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -61% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
560.7K
Each employee generates -52% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
112.9K
Each employee generates -72% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
13.4K
Each employee generates -141% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
5.1M
Each employee generates -141% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PPL
AMEREN CORPORATION (XNYS:AEE)
ENTERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:ETR)
DTE
FIRSTENERGY CORP. (XNYS:FE)
EDISON INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:EIX)
Avangrid, Inc. (XNYS:AGR)
CMS ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:CMS)
BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS L.P. (OTCM:BINFF)
PG&E CORPORATION (XNYS:PCG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�50%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.07B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.30B
2.76B
-
-
-
-
1.30B
1.30B
12.00M
872.00M
1.12B
3.14B
1.46B
633.00M
606.00M
518.00M
633.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
278.00M
Differed Income Tax :
39.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
11.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 80000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 38000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 94000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 19000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
502.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
4.25B
-
4.25B
948.00M
280.00M
236.00M
5.71B
25.65B
716.00M
340.00M
-
-
1.69B
28.39B
-
34.11B
686.00M
1.46B
92.00M
-
888.00M
3.03B
10.67B
3.21B
17.21B
-
20.24B
8.00M
2.70B
- 152000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.60B
13.87B
34.11B
-
12.13B
7.9B
-
- 427000.00K
- 427000.00K
-
-
-
- 306000.00K
909.00M
603.00M
-
678.00M
4.25B
3.57B
502.00M
- 427000.00K
75.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PPL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$22.21
$23.35
$24.55
$25.81
$27.14