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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Potlatchdeltic Corporation (XNAS:PCH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PCH
Name:
POTLATCHDELTIC CORPORATION (XNAS:PCH)
Sector:
213.09M
Industry:
REIT�Specialty
CEO:
Mr. Michael Covey
Total Employees:
1,299
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 9.49% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF POTLATCHDELTIC CORPORATION(PCH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�SPECIALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
45.74
One Month Price Target:
$46.04
Six Month Price Target :
$47.53
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$49.32
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$45.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$46.
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$42.98
This week:
$39.57
This month :
$33.4
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.19B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
69.27M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.4%
-26.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.55
$52.67
$32.93
$38.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$50.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.50
$40.71
$41.98
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PCH
Sharpe Ratio:
1.53%
Comparison:
PCH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -22.41% lower than the industry
& is -32.83% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PCH
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.08%
Yearly returns:
14.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -11.89% below industry average
Classification:
PCH, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.93
Statistical test of Returns:
PCH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.96%
Weekly Volatility:
6.63%
Monthly Volatility:
13.26%
Yearly Volatility:
45.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.24%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -24.55% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.03%
Weekly VaR:
-13.49%
Monthly VaR:
-26.98%
How Much Can the price of
PCH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-93.47%
This translates to price declining to:
$35.11
This translates to price declining to:
$2.99
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PCH is a 90.43% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 63.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.55% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PCH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.16
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.756
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.069
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.861
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.79
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.044
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.337
Beta is -13.00% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.954
Beta is 21.96% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.60%
Sustainable growth rate is -33.62% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.019
Alpha is -62.71% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 121% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PCH
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is 14.81% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.23%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.79%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.99%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.99%
WACC is 46.69% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$20.13
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.85
Annual revenue growth rate is 38.27% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
96.90%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 260.03% higher than the REIT�Specialty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.83
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 138.16%
Equity growth rate per share is 1013.33% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$10.33
EBITDA per share
$10.23
Valuation Analysis Today of
PCH
P/E Ratio:
8.14
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
72.69
P/E ratio is -88.81% lower than main peers & is -90.21% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $554.39
PCH is -91.75% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.27
Price to sales ratio is -68.80% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.85
Price to free cash flow: 6.69
Price to free cash flow ratio is -71.99% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
210.55%
Net income growth rate is -21.32% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.68%
Dividend yeild: 11.63%
Previous Dividend: $0.44
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.44
Previous Dividend: $5.32
Expected next dividend best case: $1.34
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.46
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.74
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 66.36%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.44
2021-12-21--$4.00
2021-09-14--$0.41
2022-03-03--$0.44
2021-12-14--$0.44
2021-06-03--$0.41
Dividend growth rate is 28.80% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
41.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
16.62%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
10.41%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -66.00% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
24.78
Interest coverage ratio is 369.77% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.45%
Annual debt growth is -115% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.42%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.564
Statistical significance of correlation:
PCH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is -6.63% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.013
Kurtosis
21.128
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.069
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PCH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
178%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
42.90%
Operating profit margin is 137.36% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
178%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.03%
Effective tax rate is 50.25% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.67%
Return on equity (ROE) is 45.56% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.70%
Return on assets (ROA) is 226.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
4.1
Current ratio is 132.79% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
17.6
Cash conversion cycle is -60.92% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -87% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
545.6K
Each employee generates -92% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
351.5K
Each employee generates -88% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
164.0K
Each employee generates -88% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates -88% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PCH
PHILLIPS EDISON & COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:PECO)
EXP WORLD HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXPI)
NEWMARK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NMRK)
SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT, INC. (XNAS:SBRA)
UNITI GROUP INC. (XNAS:UNIT)
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP. (XNAS:ROIC)
CARETRUST REIT, INC. (XNYS:CTRE)
MEDALIST DIVERSIFIED REIT, INC. (XNAS:MDRRP)
INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:ILPT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�17%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.39B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
726.39M
668.20M
-
38.02M
72.97M
-
-
72.97M
-
28.60M
136.27M
708.68M
598.32M
456.63M
543.82M
87.18M
456.63M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
- 2123.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.06M
Change in Working Capital :
21.21M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
45.28M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
230.30M
Investments in PP&E:
- 12566.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
470.92M
-
470.92M
40.09M
67.67M
21.94M
600.62M
297.71M
-
-
-
-
1.82B
2.13B
-
2.73B
-
39.98M
-
-
106.58M
146.57M
715.50M
121.71M
874.85M
-
1.02B
69.37M
- 147632.00K
7.5M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
799.36M
1.71B
2.73B
-
755.48M
284.6M
-
- 4556.00K
- 17122.00K
- 3000.00K
-
-
- 30524.00K
- 1071.00K
- 34595.00K
-
178.58M
475.35M
296.77M
230.30M
- 17214.00K
213.09M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PCH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$49.57
$319.35
$344.31
$371.23
$400.24