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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pool Corporation (XNAS:POOL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
POOL
Name:
POOL CORPORATION (XNAS:POOL)
Sector:
- 217268.00K
Industry:
Leisure
CEO:
Mr. Peter Arvan
Total Employees:
5,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 155.39% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF POOL CORPORATION(POOL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LEISURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
339.9
One Month Price Target:
$341.57
Six Month Price Target :
$349.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$360.
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$338.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$341.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$323.12
This week:
$302.37
This month :
$264.85
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.46B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.59M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.28%
-16.79%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$417.70
$381.55
$262.10
$298.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$369.78
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$362.06
$309.92
$317.74
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
POOL
Sharpe Ratio:
3.81%
Comparison:
POOL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 114.63% higher than the industry
& ratio is 67.17% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
POOL
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.51%
Monthly returns:
2.05%
Yearly returns:
16.56%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 48.38% above industry average
Classification:
POOL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.97
Statistical test of Returns:
POOL has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.45%
Weekly Volatility:
5.49%
Monthly Volatility:
10.97%
Yearly Volatility:
38.02%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.88%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.94%
Weekly VaR:
-11.04%
Monthly VaR:
-22.08%
How Much Can the price of
POOL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-76.49%
This translates to price declining to:
$277.53
This translates to price declining to:
$79.91
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
POOL is a 55.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 33.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -26.59% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
POOL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.71
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.004
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.414
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.833
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.663
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.319
Beta is -33.30% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.42
Beta is -38.04% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
62.28%
Sustainable growth rate is 46.66% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.154
Alpha is 318.31% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 980% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
POOL
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is -28.74% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.32%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.64%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.50%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.50%
WACC is -37.25% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$142.65
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
11.46
Annual revenue growth rate is -9.60% below industry average
EPS:
$18.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
34.74%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 12.90% higher than the Leisure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 73.13%
Equity growth rate per share is 479.52% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$42.32
EBITDA per share
$24.56
Valuation Analysis Today of
POOL
P/E Ratio:
17.59
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
1481.9
P/E ratio is -98.81% lower than main peers & is -58.99% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $773.96
POOL is -56.08% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $1,321.10
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $155.46
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.38
Price to sales ratio is -20.71% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
11.46
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
178.95%
Net income growth rate is 7.10% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.39%
Dividend yeild: 1.00%
Previous Dividend: $1.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.00
Previous Dividend: $3.40
Expected next dividend best case: $1.13
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.87
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.69
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.84%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$1.00
2021-11-09--$0.80
2021-05-14--$0.80
2022-03-09--$0.80
2021-08-11--$0.80
2021-03-10--$0.58
Dividend growth rate is -480.10% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
142.69%
Net debt to equity ratio:
147.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
43.16%
Net debt to assets ratio:
44.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -32.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
86.39
Interest coverage ratio is 15.31% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
128.87%
Annual debt growth is 170% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 26.63%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.596
Statistical significance of correlation:
POOL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.567
Stock price is 5.14% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.567
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.029
Kurtosis
8.108
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.094
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
POOL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
125%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.64%
Operating profit margin is 281.57% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
125%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.25%
Effective tax rate is 5.26% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
62.27%
Return on equity (ROE) is 152.74% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
18.84%
Return on assets (ROA) is 197.00% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
2.5
Current ratio is 13.48% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
3.9
Cash conversion cycle is -94.01% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 25.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.50%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates 40% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
176.8K
Each employee generates 21% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
133.0K
Each employee generates 82% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 39.5K
Each employee generates 37% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
269.7K
Each employee generates 37% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
POOL
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:CZR)
ULTA BEAUTY, INC. (XNAS:ULTA)
LKQ CORPORATION (XNAS:LKQ)
Trip.com Group Limited (XNAS:TCOM)
OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLPX)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:FWONA)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:FWONA)
TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY (XNAS:TSCO)
Hasbro, Inc. (XNAS:HAS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.65B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.88B
1.76B
-
-
826.17M
-
-
826.17M
-
11.26M
32.58M
972.33M
939.48M
731.23M
928.22M
197.27M
731.23M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.86M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.66M
Change in Working Capital :
- 406601.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.72M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 208109.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 9159.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
35.37M
-
35.37M
679.93M
1.64B
42.31M
2.40B
440.79M
688.35M
310.85M
1.18M
-
42.21M
1.48B
-
3.88B
685.95M
92.95M
-
-
179.55M
958.45M
1.68B
32.94M
1.75B
-
2.71B
40.00K
611.58M
3.9M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.71B
1.17B
3.88B
-
1.77B
1.7B
-
-
- 9159.00K
- 608057.00K
-
- 62420.00K
- 32132.00K
931.33M
228.72M
- 405.00K
11.04M
35.37M
24.32M
- 208109.00K
- 9159.00K
- 217268.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
POOL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$361.80
$9,888.82
$10,473.47
$11,092.69
$11,748.52