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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Plymouth Industrial Reit, Inc. (XNYS:PLYM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PLYM
Name:
PLYMOUTH INDUSTRIAL REIT, INC. (XNYS:PLYM)
Sector:
14.29M
Industry:
REIT�Industrial
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Witherell
Total Employees:
39
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -3.16% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PLYMOUTH INDUSTRIAL REIT, INC.(PLYM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
20.11
One Month Price Target:
$20.26
Six Month Price Target :
$20.98
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$20.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$20.22
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$18.91
This week:
$17.42
This month :
$14.73
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
813.39M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
40.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.76%
-22.93%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.69
$23.13
$14.53
$17.09
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$22.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.75
$17.92
$18.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PLYM
Sharpe Ratio:
1.58%
Comparison:
PLYM, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -34.57% lower than the industry
& is -30.50% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PLYM
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.28%
Monthly returns:
1.11%
Yearly returns:
14.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -5.50% below industry average
Classification:
PLYM, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.86
Statistical test of Returns:
PLYM has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.94%
Weekly Volatility:
6.57%
Monthly Volatility:
13.14%
Yearly Volatility:
45.50%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.81%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.49% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.98%
Weekly VaR:
-13.37%
Monthly VaR:
-26.73%
How Much Can the price of
PLYM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-92.60%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.48
This translates to price declining to:
$1.49
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PLYM is a 88.66% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 61.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 33.47% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PLYM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.29
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.749
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.059
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.621
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.656
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.525
Beta is -15.30% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.735
Beta is 75.71% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.013
Alpha is -78.03% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 82% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PLYM
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is 46.58% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.55%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.01%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.01%
WACC is 10.57% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.78
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.55
Annual revenue growth rate is -456.86% below industry average
EPS:
-$4.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-8.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -194.59% lower than the REIT�Industrial industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.56
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -57.60%
Equity growth rate per share is -568.64% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$17.29
EBITDA per share
$1.99
Valuation Analysis Today of
PLYM
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.97
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
PLYM is -107.41% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $6.00
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.28
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.33
Price to sales ratio is -60.23% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.55
Price to free cash flow: 12.88
Price to free cash flow ratio is -48.76% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-88.03%
Net income growth rate is -570.08% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -56.60%
Dividend yeild: 4.28%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.86
Expected next dividend best case: $0.28
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.16
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.24
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -3.69%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.22
2021-12-30--$0.21
2021-06-29--$0.21
2022-03-30--$0.22
2021-09-29--$0.21
2021-03-30--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -59.86% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
134.54%
Net debt to equity ratio:
162.36%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
57.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -71.76% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.64
Interest coverage ratio is -7326.12% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-27.07%
Annual debt growth is -346% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.70%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.488
Statistical significance of correlation:
PLYM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.617
Stock price is -20.94% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.617
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.058
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.099
Kurtosis
14.463
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.654
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PLYM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
267%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.73%
Operating profit margin is -79.05% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
267%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-3.20%
Return on equity (ROE) is -138.53% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.13%
Return on assets (ROA) is -129.16% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
0.18
Current ratio is -93.76% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 18.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-2.68%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
3.9M
Each employee generates 136% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.0M
Each employee generates 46% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 423.1K
Each employee generates -163% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
366.4K
Each employee generates 90% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
36.3M
Each employee generates 90% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PLYM
UMH PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:UMH)
ORCHID ISLAND CAPITAL, INC. (XNYS:ORC)
ONE LIBERTY PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:OLP)
SENIOR PLC (XLON:SNR)
CITY OFFICE REIT, INC. (XNYS:CIO)
CATCHMARK TIMBER TRUST, INC. (XNYS:CTT)
COREPOINT LODGING INC. (XNYS:CPLG)
ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORPORATION (XNYS:ACRE)
HERSHA HOSPITALITY TRUST (XNYS:HT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
151.51M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
50.29M
101.22M
-
13.46M
13.46M
-
77.56M
91.02M
29.00K
21.97M
74.41M
79.88M
10.20M
- 16499.00K
- 16753.00K
-
- 16499.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
21.15M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
442.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 3075.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 648.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
246.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
14.29M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
25.61M
-
25.61M
-
-
16.66M
42.27M
-
-
84.98M
-
-
1.33B
1.42B
-
1.46B
-
169.00M
-
-
64.15M
233.15M
693.66M
10.93M
704.59M
-
937.74M
370.00K
- 181668.00K
9.9M
542.52M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
141.30M
515.57M
1.45B
-
862.66M
837.1M
-
- 137447.00K
- 137447.00K
- 26630.00K
17.12M
-
- 9338.00K
140.90M
122.05M
-
- 1105.00K
42.27M
43.37M
14.29M
-
14.29M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PLYM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.97
$1.77
$1.92
$2.09
$2.27