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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Plexus Corp. (XNAS:PLXS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PLXS
Name:
PLEXUS CORP. (XNAS:PLXS)
Sector:
- 122225.00K
Industry:
Electronic Components
CEO:
Mr. Todd Kelsey
Total Employees:
19,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -97.53% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PLEXUS CORP.(PLXS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
90.83
One Month Price Target:
$91.4
Six Month Price Target :
$94.25
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$97.68
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$90.49
Price Upper limit ($) :
$91.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$86.18
This week:
$80.44
This month :
$70.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.49B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
27.71M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.37%
-21.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$112.39
$102.48
$69.27
$79.18
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$99.25
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.13
$82.38
$84.53
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PLXS
Sharpe Ratio:
1.85%
Comparison:
PLXS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -8.93% lower than the industry
& is -18.94% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PLXS
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.28%
Monthly returns:
1.11%
Yearly returns:
15.78%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -15.75% below industry average
Classification:
PLXS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.14
Statistical test of Returns:
PLXS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.52%
Weekly Volatility:
5.63%
Monthly Volatility:
11.26%
Yearly Volatility:
39.02%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.93%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.03% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.12%
Weekly VaR:
-11.44%
Monthly VaR:
-22.88%
How Much Can the price of
PLXS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-79.28%
This translates to price declining to:
$73.02
This translates to price declining to:
$18.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PLXS is a 61.52% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 38.37% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -5.24% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PLXS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.12
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.721
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.019
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.949
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.563
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.661
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.557
Beta is -27.95% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.174
Beta is -4.41% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.29%
Sustainable growth rate is -19.33% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.025
Alpha is -46.45% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 156% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PLXS
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is -3.17% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.16%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.40%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.69%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.69%
WACC is 4.98% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$121.38
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.41
Annual revenue growth rate is 49.98% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.87
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.61%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -66.62% lower than the Electronic Components industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$8.06
EBITDA per share
$7.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
PLXS
P/E Ratio:
21.37
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
43.8
P/E ratio is -51.21% lower than main peers & is -10.89% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $92.81
PLXS is -2.14% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.75
Price to sales ratio is -71.56% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.41
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1130.35%
Net income growth rate is 500.40% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
21.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
15.11%
Debt to assets ratio:
8.25%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.82%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -84.63% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.05
Interest coverage ratio is 15.82% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-12.99%
Annual debt growth is 1985% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 30.40%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.481
Statistical significance of correlation:
PLXS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.614
Stock price is -21.76% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.614
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.017
Kurtosis
13.704
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.712
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PLXS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
36%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.31%
Operating profit margin is -50.20% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
36%
Effective Tax Rate:
14.71%
Effective tax rate is -1.29% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.65%
Return on equity (ROE) is -38.30% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.11%
Return on assets (ROA) is -41.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.58
Current ratio is -38.24% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
25.3
Cash conversion cycle is -64.74% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
175.2K
Each employee generates -2% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
10.6K
Each employee generates -62% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
5.8K
Each employee generates -65% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 6.4K
Each employee generates 130% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
28.6K
Each employee generates 130% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PLXS
SANMINA CORPORATION (XNAS:SANM)
MIMECAST LIMITED (XNAS:MIME)
IROBOT CORPORATION (XNAS:IRBT)
CSOD
RIOT BLOCKCHAIN, INC. (XNAS:RIOT)
NOVA LTD (XNAS:NVMI)
VERTEX, INC. (XNAS:VERX)
FORMFACTOR, INC. (XNAS:FORM)
TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR LTD (XNAS:TSEM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
3.36B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.06B
299.52M
-
-
151.24M
-
-
151.24M
1.14M
12.74M
61.28M
204.44M
145.03M
111.24M
130.42M
19.18M
111.24M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
15.49M
Differed Income Tax :
35.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.36M
Change in Working Capital :
- 134850.00K
Accounts Receivables:
66.00K
Other Working Capital:
60.74M
Other Non-Cash Items:
567.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 88979.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 33246.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/1/22
2022
Q1
217.07M
-
217.07M
694.70M
1.19B
63.79M
2.16B
484.50M
-
-
-
27.35M
36.32M
548.17M
-
2.71B
711.25M
151.42M
47.97M
265.76M
238.06M
1.37B
223.42M
70.34M
299.07M
-
1.67B
539.00K
1.46B
- 3290.0K
643.19M
January 1, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
3.22B
1.04B
2.71B
-
374.84M
157.8M
-
- 124.00K
- 33370.00K
- 97565.00K
-
- 10131.00K
-
177.74M
70.04M
184.00K
- 52122.00K
218.39M
270.51M
- 88979.00K
- 33246.00K
- 122225.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PLXS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$98.17
$137.94
$148.34
$159.52
$171.55