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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Planet Fitness, Inc. (XNYS:PLNT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PLNT
Name:
PLANET FITNESS, INC. (XNYS:PLNT)
Sector:
34.14M
Industry:
Leisure
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Rondeau
Total Employees:
1,529
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -20.97% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PLANET FITNESS, INC.(PLNT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LEISURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
65.81
One Month Price Target:
$66.26
Six Month Price Target :
$68.48
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$71.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$65.43
Price Upper limit ($) :
$66.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$60.8
This week:
$54.6
This month :
$43.39
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.86B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
90.39M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.38%
-28.12%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$89.08
$78.42
$42.54
$53.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$74.95
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.68
$56.64
$58.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PLNT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.19%
Comparison:
PLNT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -33.16% lower than the industry
& is -47.94% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PLNT
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.06%
Yearly returns:
16.56%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -22.91% below industry average
Classification:
PLNT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
PLNT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.74%
Weekly Volatility:
8.35%
Monthly Volatility:
16.71%
Yearly Volatility:
57.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.85%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -50.54% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.62%
Weekly VaR:
-17.04%
Monthly VaR:
-34.07%
How Much Can the price of
PLNT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$46.38
This translates to price declining to:
$9.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PLNT is a 140.47% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 106.01% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 11.74% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PLNT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.21
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.808
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.142
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.154
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.173
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.102
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.622
Beta is -25.54% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.42
Beta is -14.92% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.013
Alpha is -63.67% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 85% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PLNT
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is -11.27% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-1.45%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.44%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.72%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.72%
WACC is -47.80% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.32
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-28.2
Annual revenue growth rate is -91.48% below industry average
EPS:
$0.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-28.92%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -193.99% lower than the Leisure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.75
-
-
Debt per share
$25.85
EBITDA per share
$2.48
Valuation Analysis Today of
PLNT
P/E Ratio:
90.35
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.39
P/E ratio is 527.77% higher than main peers & is 110.59% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $27.46
PLNT is 139.68% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.99
Price to sales ratio is 199.08% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-28.2
Price to free cash flow: 37.55
Price to free cash flow ratio is 83.09% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-49.11%
Net income growth rate is -129.39% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-1098.37%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-921.87%
Debt to assets ratio:
78.07%
Net debt to assets ratio:
65.53%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 21.26% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.68
Interest coverage ratio is -96.42% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
10.54%
Annual debt growth is -78% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 21.35%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.627
Statistical significance of correlation:
PLNT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.567
Stock price is 10.52% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.567
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.018
Kurtosis
10.732
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.17
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PLNT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
214%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
24.58%
Operating profit margin is 463.70% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
214%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.27%
Effective tax rate is -4.57% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-25.23%
Return on equity (ROE) is -202.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.79%
Return on assets (ROA) is -71.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.6x
Current Ratio:
1.89
Current ratio is -14.38% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-19.4
Cash conversion cycle is -129.81% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.31%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
432.8K
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
146.7K
Each employee generates 0% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
35.1K
Each employee generates -52% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
22.3K
Each employee generates -178% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates -178% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PLNT
BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC. (XNYS:BFAM)
BRUNSWICK CORPORATION (XNYS:BC)
PVH CORP. (XNYS:PVH)
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION (XNYS:VAC)
TOLL BROTHERS, INC. (XNYS:TOL)
SKECHERS U.S.A., INC. (XNYS:SKX)
GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR INC. (XNYS:GIL)
BOYD GAMING CORPORATION (XNYS:BYD)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�21%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
661.82M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
308.95M
352.87M
-
-
102.88M
-
87.35M
190.23M
870.00K
83.60M
73.01M
224.28M
162.65M
53.66M
72.74M
14.02M
53.66M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
25.68M
Differed Income Tax :
7.15M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.85M
Change in Working Capital :
2.20M
Accounts Receivables:
14.42M
Other Working Capital:
- 6728.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.75M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
58.01M
Investments in PP&E:
- 23872.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 425834.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
471.18M
-
471.18M
36.18M
1.75M
106.54M
615.64M
686.47M
696.30M
475.42M
21.08M
493.83M
3.66M
2.38B
-
2.99B
24.15M
95.75M
20.30M
64.18M
141.93M
326.00M
2.34B
507.59M
2.88B
-
3.20B
9.00K
- 692340.00K
97.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
499.18M
- 212699.00K
2.99B
-
2.43B
2.0B
-
-
- 449706.00K
- 634302.00K
525.00K
-
-
957.99M
324.22M
206.00K
- 67273.00K
536.67M
603.94M
58.01M
- 23872.00K
34.14M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PLNT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$56.38
$60.96
$65.91
$71.26
$77.04