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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (XNAS:PNFP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PNFP
Name:
PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:PNFP)
Sector:
52.12M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. M. Terry Turner
Total Employees:
2,841
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 16.97% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS, INC.(PNFP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
78.7
One Month Price Target:
$79.21
Six Month Price Target :
$81.78
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$84.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$78.35
Price Upper limit ($) :
$79.18
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$73.77
This week:
$67.68
This month :
$56.66
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.90B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
76.42M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.72%
-22.85%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$101.57
$91.03
$55.83
$66.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$87.60
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$85.35
$69.77
$72.05
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PNFP
Sharpe Ratio:
2.36%
Comparison:
PNFP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 91.92% higher than the industry
& ratio is 3.44% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PNFP
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.63%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 79.68% above industry average
Classification:
PNFP, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
PNFP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.09%
Weekly Volatility:
6.91%
Monthly Volatility:
13.82%
Yearly Volatility:
47.86%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.07%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -97.81% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.26%
Weekly VaR:
-14.01%
Monthly VaR:
-28.01%
How Much Can the price of
PNFP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$59.94
This translates to price declining to:
$11.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PNFP is a 97.70% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 69.37% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 8.15% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PNFP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.16
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.729
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.032
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.969
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.577
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.054
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.9
Beta is 29.30% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 20.81% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.14%
Sustainable growth rate is 0.13% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.085
Alpha is 630.96% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 540% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PNFP
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is 14.09% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.26%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.78%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.35%
Overall debt rating:
Lowest medium B grade (second lowest)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.35%
WACC is -4.84% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.42
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.14
Annual revenue growth rate is 29.44% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.74%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -27.32% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.36
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 58.80%
Equity growth rate per share is 51.86% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$17.17
EBITDA per share
$10.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
PNFP
P/E Ratio:
11.31
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.46
P/E ratio is -26.84% lower than main peers & is -8.87% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $84.25
PNFP is -6.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.46
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.81
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.11
Price to sales ratio is 19.37% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.14
Price to free cash flow: 10.69
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
49.79%
Net income growth rate is -9.59% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.20%
Dividend yeild: 1.02%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.80
Expected next dividend best case: $0.24
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.20
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.47%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.22
2021-11-04--$0.18
2021-05-06--$0.18
2022-02-03--$0.22
2021-08-05--$0.18
2021-02-04--$0.18
Dividend growth rate is -85.27% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
24.85%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-37.45%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.33%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.02%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.00% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.84
Interest coverage ratio is 966.43% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-25.40%
Annual debt growth is -8120% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.21%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.475
Statistical significance of correlation:
PNFP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -5.16% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.027
Kurtosis
7.401
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.557
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PNFP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.04%
Effective tax rate is -11.66% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is -15.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.35%
Return on assets (ROA) is -41.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.78%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
414.7K
Each employee generates 9% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
276.6K
Each employee generates 22% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
186.9K
Each employee generates 32% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.3K
Each employee generates -78% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.1M
Each employee generates -78% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PNFP
NOCTURNE ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:MBTCU)
HEALTHCARE SERVICES ACQUISITION UNIT (XNAS:HCARU)
VCVCU
ACACU
PEOPLE'S UNITED FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:PBCT)
FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FFIN)
SEI INVESTMENTS COMPANY (XNAS:SEIC)
Popular Inc (XNAS:BPOP)
COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:CBSH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.18B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
309.32M
-
487.06M
501.38M
14.32M
- 124223.00K
3.78M
1.04B
88.91M
41.08M
785.83M
-
531.01M
655.85M
124.84M
531.01M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.42M
Differed Income Tax :
15.68M
Stock Based Compensation :
9.45M
Change in Working Capital :
- 132538.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
52.12M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 30415.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 332753.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.29B
3.57B
6.86B
95.15M
-
- 3103008.00K
3.85B
296.78M
1.85B
32.00M
6.52B
-
-
8.70B
44.25B
39.40B
8.58M
-
-
-
-
-
1.31B
-
1.31B
35.43B
34.12B
76.38M
1.97B
- 31153.0K
3.05B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
5.28B
39.40B
10.09B
1.31B
- 1977912.0K
61.00K
- 1474187.00K
- 1837294.00K
- 29614.00K
- 5461.00K
-
- 16976.00K
1.06B
1.00B
-
- 781758.00K
3.32B
4.10B
52.12M
-
52.12M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PNFP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$102.44
$110.46
$119.10
$128.41
$138.46