_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pilgrim'S Pride Corporation (XNAS:PPC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PPC
Name:
PILGRIM'S PRIDE CORPORATION (XNAS:PPC)
Sector:
145.42M
Industry:
Packaged Foods
CEO:
Mr. Jayson Penn
Total Employees:
60,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -141.71% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PILGRIM'S PRIDE CORPORATION(PPC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGED FOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
27.96
One Month Price Target:
$28.1
Six Month Price Target :
$28.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.68
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$27.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.08
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.5
This week:
$24.7
This month :
$21.44
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.47B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
239.05M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.55%
-15.21%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.73
$31.64
$21.19
$24.28
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.98
$25.27
$25.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PPC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.20%
Comparison:
PPC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -84.75% lower than the industry
& is -91.23% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PPC
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.28%
Yearly returns:
8.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -60.27% below industry average
Classification:
PPC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
PPC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.55%
Weekly Volatility:
5.69%
Monthly Volatility:
11.39%
Yearly Volatility:
39.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.80% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.21%
Weekly VaR:
-11.66%
Monthly VaR:
-23.32%
How Much Can the price of
PPC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.79%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.24
This translates to price declining to:
$5.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PPC is a 64.60% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.02% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 11.31% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PPC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.92
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.673
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.951
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.486
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.627
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.614
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.793
Beta is 15.61% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.586
Beta is 56.51% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.17%
Sustainable growth rate is -87.08% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.061
Alpha is -584.94% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -387% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PPC
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is 31.66% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.00%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.04%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.19%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.19%
WACC is 22.28% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$65.86
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.39
Annual revenue growth rate is 3.48% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-58.58%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -424.81% lower than the Packaged Foods industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.37
-
-
Debt per share
$15.23
EBITDA per share
$3.60
Valuation Analysis Today of
PPC
P/E Ratio:
9.17
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.51
P/E ratio is -64.06% lower than main peers & is -76.27% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $33.23
PPC is -15.86% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.42
Price to sales ratio is -81.69% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.39
Price to free cash flow: 20.44
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-87.34%
Net income growth rate is -911.89% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
130.88%
Net debt to equity ratio:
108.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.07%
Net debt to assets ratio:
32.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -27.51% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.67
Interest coverage ratio is -97.70% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
38.98%
Annual debt growth is -86% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.87%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.519
Statistical significance of correlation:
PPC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.429
Stock price is 21.01% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.429
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.061
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.09
Kurtosis
11.195
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.444
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PPC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
42%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.89%
Operating profit margin is -40.17% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
42%
Effective Tax Rate:
32.33%
Effective tax rate is -20.69% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.59%
Return on equity (ROE) is -31.26% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is -49.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.53
Current ratio is -44.15% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-1.9
Cash conversion cycle is -103.87% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.93%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
262.4K
Each employee generates -67% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
14.3K
Each employee generates -87% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.5K
Each employee generates -93% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.4K
Each employee generates -165% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
92.1K
Each employee generates -165% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PPC
Innovator Lddrd Alloc PB (BATS:BUFF)
CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC. (XNAS:CASY)
COCA-COLA CONSOLIDATED, INC. (XNAS:COKE)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCN)
Oatly Group AB (XNAS:OTLY)
LANCASTER COLONY CORPORATION (XNAS:LANC)
BEYOND MEAT, INC. (XNAS:BYND)
SANDERSON FARMS, INC. (XNAS:SAFM)
NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP. (XNAS:FIZZ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/27/22
Revenue:
15.74B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
14.10B
1.65B
-
-
1.19B
-
-
1.19B
4.96M
151.75M
396.43M
860.40M
454.71M
211.23M
312.34M
100.98M
211.23M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
102.14M
Differed Income Tax :
- 21917.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.96M
Change in Working Capital :
- 139324.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
81.72M
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.57M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
227.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 81578.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 4847.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/27/22
2022
Q1
725.54M
-
725.54M
1.09B
1.71B
271.70M
3.79B
3.23B
1.32B
938.56M
-
5.19M
32.07M
5.53B
-
9.32B
1.35B
115.24M
231.14M
21.52M
985.15M
2.48B
3.64B
63.27M
4.05B
-
6.52B
2.62M
1.28B
- 98902.0K
-
March 27, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
15.28B
2.78B
9.31B
-
3.76B
3.0B
-
849.00K
- 85576.00K
- 32093.00K
-
- 27023.00K
-
225.45M
166.33M
- 2073.00K
305.68M
755.80M
450.12M
227.00M
- 81578.00K
145.42M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PPC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.64
$22.97
$24.39
$25.89
$27.49