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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Photronics, Inc. (XNAS:PLAB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PLAB
Name:
PHOTRONICS, INC. (XNAS:PLAB)
Sector:
39.96M
Industry:
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
CEO:
Dr. Peter Kirlin
Total Employees:
1,728
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 238.66% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PHOTRONICS, INC.(PLAB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
15.37
One Month Price Target:
$15.47
Six Month Price Target :
$15.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.52
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$15.29
Price Upper limit ($) :
$15.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$14.27
This week:
$12.91
This month :
$10.44
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
951.74M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
61.60M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.95%
-23.56%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.48
$18.14
$10.26
$12.60
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$17.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.87
$13.36
$13.87
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PLAB
Sharpe Ratio:
1.58%
Comparison:
PLAB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -43.13% lower than the industry
& is -30.78% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PLAB
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.29%
Yearly returns:
28.31%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -45.38% below industry average
Classification:
PLAB, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
PLAB has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.52%
Weekly Volatility:
7.88%
Monthly Volatility:
15.75%
Yearly Volatility:
54.57%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.52%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -0.17% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.17%
Weekly VaR:
-16.03%
Monthly VaR:
-32.07%
How Much Can the price of
PLAB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.12
This translates to price declining to:
$2.31
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PLAB is a 126.33% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 93.89% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -5.95% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PLAB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.11
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.865
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.223
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.04
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.717
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.749
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.71
Beta is -34.92% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.394
Beta is -20.17% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.77%
Sustainable growth rate is -73.71% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.047
Alpha is -69.96% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 298% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PLAB
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is -15.16% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.07%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.19%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.73%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.73%
WACC is -4.90% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.91
Annual revenue growth rate is -31.60% below industry average
EPS:
$1.43
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
36.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 18.18% higher than the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.23
-
-
Debt per share
$1.27
EBITDA per share
$3.51
Valuation Analysis Today of
PLAB
P/E Ratio:
9.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
57.37
P/E ratio is -83.88% lower than main peers & is -67.77% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $41.04
PLAB is -62.55% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.27
Price to sales ratio is -80.18% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.91
Price to free cash flow: 6.90
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
47.78%
Net income growth rate is -93.01% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
9.37%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-25.92%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.88%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-16.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -88.19% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
101.88
Interest coverage ratio is 423.77% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
60.90%
Annual debt growth is 7533% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 16.21%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.394
Statistical significance of correlation:
PLAB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is -34.78% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.049
Kurtosis
9.834
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.173
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PLAB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
121%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.04%
Operating profit margin is -546.53% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
121%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.79%
Effective tax rate is 90.62% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.42%
Return on equity (ROE) is -26.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.54%
Return on assets (ROA) is -24.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.13
Current ratio is -28.71% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
99.8
Cash conversion cycle is 71.42% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.67%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
431.9K
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
125.2K
Each employee generates -26% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
50.6K
Each employee generates -54% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
23.1K
Each employee generates 34% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
426.8K
Each employee generates 34% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 7.85%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -66.83% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PLAB
TUCOWS INC. (XNAS:TCX)
SCANSOURCE, INC. (XNAS:SCSC)
INSEEGO CORP. (XNAS:INSG)
SKYWATER TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:SKYT)
Cantaloupe, Inc. (XNAS:CTLP)
MAGIC SOFTWARE ENTERPRISES LTD. (XNAS:MGIC)
ALPHA AND OMEGA SEMICONDUCTOR LIMITED (XNAS:AOSL)
HARMONIC INC. (XNAS:HLIT)
EBIX, INC. (XNAS:EBIX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/1/22
Revenue:
746.27M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
518.92M
227.35M
19.55M
-
61.75M
-
- 3525.00K
77.77M
1.01M
2.12M
84.68M
216.30M
149.58M
87.38M
169.85M
42.11M
87.38M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.81M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.46M
Change in Working Capital :
5.14M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
8.66M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
59.13M
Investments in PP&E:
- 19175.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/30/22
2022
Q1
314.20M
-
314.20M
170.67M
61.97M
50.94M
597.78M
692.29M
-
-
-
-
45.18M
737.47M
-
1.34B
-
18.31M
-
-
172.79M
191.09M
78.54M
26.45M
104.99M
-
296.08M
-
-
10.6M
-
January 30, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
596.69M
838.43M
1.13B
-
96.85M
- 217348.0K
-
- 43.00K
- 19218.00K
- 15192.00K
-
- 2522.00K
-
17.38M
- 335.00K
- 2057.00K
37.52M
317.20M
279.68M
59.13M
- 19175.00K
39.96M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PLAB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.60
$46.09
$49.54
$53.24
$57.23