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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. (XNAS:PECO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PECO
Name:
PHILLIPS EDISON & COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:PECO)
Sector:
187.87M
Industry:
REIT�Retail
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey S. Edison
Total Employees:
290
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -191.45% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PHILLIPS EDISON & COMPANY, INC.(PECO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.84
One Month Price Target:
$32.9
Six Month Price Target :
$33.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$33.02
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$31.68
This week:
$30.26
This month :
$27.67
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.83B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
116.70M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
5.61%
-4.8%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.19
$35.71
$27.49
$29.97
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.90
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.37
$30.78
$31.31
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PECO
Sharpe Ratio:
3.68%
Comparison:
PECO, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 253.92% higher than the industry
& ratio is 61.25% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PECO
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.37%
Monthly returns:
1.46%
Yearly returns:
8.74%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 100.79% above industry average
Classification:
PECO, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
PECO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.75%
Weekly Volatility:
3.91%
Monthly Volatility:
7.82%
Yearly Volatility:
27.08%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.52%
Weekly VaR:
-7.86%
Monthly VaR:
-15.73%
How Much Can the price of
PECO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-13%
Worst case (decline):
-54.49%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.55
This translates to price declining to:
$14.95
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PECO is a 11.01% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -4.90% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -40.93% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PECO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.186
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.005
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
-0.07
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.101
Beta is -68.66% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.120
Alpha is -715.98% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 766% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PECO
Equity cost of capital:
0.055
Equity cost of capital is -48.43% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.97%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.62%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.86%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.86%
WACC is -39.89% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.43
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.55
Annual revenue growth rate is -159.39% below industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.64
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.10%
Equity growth rate per share is -162.56% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$16.21
EBITDA per share
$2.57
Valuation Analysis Today of
PECO
P/E Ratio:
110.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
- & is 131.48% higher than the industry
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.62
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.26
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.41
Price to sales ratio is -22.74% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.55
Price to free cash flow: 20.07
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-66.94%
Net income growth rate is 402.89% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1065.39%
Dividend yeild: 1.10%
Previous Dividend: $0.09
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.09
Previous Dividend: $0.36
Expected next dividend best case: $0.09
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.09
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.53%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.09
2022-04-13--$0.09
2022-02-14--$0.09
2022-05-13--$0.09
2022-03-14--$0.09
2022-01-18--$0.09
Dividend growth rate is -96.65% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
88.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
83.70%
Debt to assets ratio:
40.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
38.54%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -25.93% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.38
Interest coverage ratio is 46.22% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.49%
Annual debt growth is -1498% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 39.57%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
-0.034
Statistical significance of correlation:
PECO does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.511
Stock price is -106.55% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.511
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.016
Kurtosis
0.538
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.1
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PECO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
276%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.76%
Operating profit margin is -45.44% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
276%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.38%
Effective tax rate is -66.80% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.47%
Return on equity (ROE) is -96.02% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.21%
Return on assets (ROA) is -92.77% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.82
Current ratio is -95.67% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
26
Cash conversion cycle is -87.71% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
163.69%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates -53% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates -67% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
34.5K
Each employee generates -97% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
647.8K
Each employee generates 15% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
15.4M
Each employee generates 15% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PECO
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
12/31/21
Revenue:
516.85M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
160.28M
356.57M
-
48.38M
48.38M
-
221.59M
269.97M
-
68.55M
221.59M
300.43M
86.60M
10.02M
11.68M
278.00K
10.02M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
221.43M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
16.39M
Change in Working Capital :
4.01M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.94M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
262.90M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
5.04M
Purchases of Investments:
- 8514.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2021
FY
92.59M
5.55M
98.14M
77.69M
1.56M
34.60M
211.98M
24.82M
29.07M
6.71M
34.33M
-
4.36B
4.46B
-
4.67B
-
-
-
19.15M
97.23M
116.37M
1.89B
184.35M
2.08B
-
2.19B
1.13M
- 1090837.00K
- 24819.0K
3.26B
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
430.25M
2.15B
4.34B
39.88M
1.89B
1.8B
-
- 177016.00K
- 180491.00K
- 1238715.00K
547.40M
- 77765.00K
- 106699.00K
776.96M
- 98819.00K
-
- 16408.00K
115.53M
131.94M
262.90M
- 75035.00K
187.87M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PECO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$25.20
$25.78
$26.38
$26.99
$27.62