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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Phillips 66 (XNYS:PSX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PSX
Name:
PHILLIPS 66 (XNYS:PSX)
Sector:
766.00M
Industry:
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
CEO:
Mr. Gregory Garland
Total Employees:
14,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 47.60% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PHILLIPS 66(PSX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
88.46
One Month Price Target:
$89.14
Six Month Price Target :
$92.56
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$96.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$87.99
Price Upper limit ($) :
$88.96
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$82.6
This week:
$75.35
This month :
$62.24
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
41.74B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
481.05M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.17%
-15.87%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$115.68
$103.27
$61.24
$73.65
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$99.23
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$96.59
$77.65
$80.33
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PSX
Sharpe Ratio:
0.27%
Comparison:
PSX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -92.02% lower than the industry
& is -88.27% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PSX
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.35%
Yearly returns:
39.76%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -89.43% below industry average
Classification:
PSX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
PSX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.24%
Weekly Volatility:
7.24%
Monthly Volatility:
14.47%
Yearly Volatility:
50.13%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.78%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -14.06% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.63%
Weekly VaR:
-14.82%
Monthly VaR:
-29.64%
How Much Can the price of
PSX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$65.45
This translates to price declining to:
$13.27
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PSX is a 109.21% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 79.23% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.35% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PSX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.38
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.869
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.229
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.91
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.729
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.818
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.525
Beta is -9.67% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.405
Beta is -1.94% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.084
Alpha is -131.08% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -534% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PSX
Equity cost of capital:
0.126
Equity cost of capital is -1.46% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.31%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.25%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.25%
WACC is 2.90% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$261.98
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.92
Annual revenue growth rate is -26.09% below industry average
EPS:
$5.75
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-24.13%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 144.98% higher than the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.99
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 18.07%
Equity growth rate per share is 127.47% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$26.94
EBITDA per share
$10.77
Valuation Analysis Today of
PSX
P/E Ratio:
7.62
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.4
P/E ratio is -38.53% lower than main peers & is -41.82% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $75.34
PSX is 17.41% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $39.26
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $31.63
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.34
Price to sales ratio is -77.97% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.92
Price to free cash flow: 8.05
Price to free cash flow ratio is -72.11% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-74.86%
Net income growth rate is -121.24% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 15.84%
Dividend yeild: 4.19%
Previous Dividend: $0.97
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.97
Previous Dividend: $3.71
Expected next dividend best case: $0.99
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.95
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.91
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.77%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/09/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 23/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/11/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-20--$0.97
2021-11-16--$0.92
2021-05-21--$0.90
2022-02-18--$0.92
2021-08-17--$0.90
2021-02-19--$0.90
Dividend growth rate is -108.01% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
59.41%
Net debt to equity ratio:
50.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.30%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -59.82% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.72
Interest coverage ratio is 418.62% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-9.09%
Annual debt growth is -107% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.18%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.558
Statistical significance of correlation:
PSX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is 7.92% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.051
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.097
Kurtosis
6.127
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.333
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PSX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
28%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.28%
Operating profit margin is -204.12% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
28%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.45%
Effective tax rate is 14.60% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is -89.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.21%
Return on assets (ROA) is -7.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.13
Current ratio is -64.53% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-3.8
Cash conversion cycle is -117.50% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
9.0M
Each employee generates 116% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
370.1K
Each employee generates 29% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
182.2K
Each employee generates 22% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
54.7K
Each employee generates -506% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.9M
Each employee generates -506% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PSX
THE WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:WMB)
SUNCOR ENERGY INC. (XNYS:SU)
VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:VLO)
KINDER MORGAN, INC. (XNYS:KMI)
MPLX COM UNT (XNYS:MPLX)
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION (XNYS:OXY)
ENERGY TRANSFER UNT (XNYS:ET)
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION (XNYS:MPC)
ONEOK, INC. (XNYS:OKE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�29%
Hold�38%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
126.03B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
117.12B
8.91B
-
-
1.77B
-
5.53B
7.30B
-
594.00M
1.59B
5.18B
1.61B
2.55B
3.34B
449.00M
2.55B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
338.00M
Differed Income Tax :
142.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 115000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
114.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.14B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
15.00M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.34B
-
3.34B
10.46B
4.53B
1.53B
19.85B
22.33B
1.48B
819.00M
14.47B
-
1.68B
40.78B
-
60.64B
13.18B
1.47B
1.36B
-
2.95B
17.60B
12.96B
2.69B
20.91B
-
38.52B
7.00M
16.39B
- 514000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
124.42B
21.82B
60.33B
-
14.43B
11.1B
-
- 443000.00K
- 428000.00K
- 24000.00K
23.00M
-
- 404000.00K
- 107000.00K
- 512000.00K
- 8000.00K
188.00M
3.34B
3.15B
1.14B
- 370000.00K
766.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PSX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$82.25
$89.86
$98.18
$107.27
$117.21