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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Philip Morris International Inc. (XNYS:PM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PM
Name:
Philip Morris International Inc. (XNYS:PM)
Sector:
889.00M
Industry:
Tobacco
CEO:
Mr. Andre Calantzopoulos
Total Employees:
69,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC.(PM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
94.53
One Month Price Target:
$94.87
Six Month Price Target :
$96.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$98.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$94.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$94.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$90.97
This week:
$86.57
This month :
$78.61
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
145.87B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.55B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.03%
-12.45%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$111.04
$103.47
$78.02
$85.59
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$101.00
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$99.38
$88.04
$89.68
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PM
Sharpe Ratio:
1.31%
Comparison:
PM, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 212.17% higher than the industry
& is -42.60% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PM
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.17%
Monthly returns:
0.66%
Yearly returns:
4.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 97.98% above industry average
Classification:
PM, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
PM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.85%
Weekly Volatility:
4.13%
Monthly Volatility:
8.27%
Yearly Volatility:
28.65%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -30.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.76%
Weekly VaR:
-8.42%
Monthly VaR:
-16.84%
How Much Can the price of
PM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-58.32%
This translates to price declining to:
$80.81
This translates to price declining to:
$39.40
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PM is a 18.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 1.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.06% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.64
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.625
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.883
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.737
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.489
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.671
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.716
Beta is -10.51% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.631
Beta is 1.66% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.004
Alpha is -111.22% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 25% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PM
Equity cost of capital:
0.075
Equity cost of capital is 0.96% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-8.67%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.26%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.26%
WACC is -11.26% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$20.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-17.86
Annual revenue growth rate is -31.71% below industry average
EPS:
$5.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.14%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 0.00% lower than the Tobacco industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.57
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 9.95%
Equity growth rate per share is -39.97% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$15.49
EBITDA per share
$8.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
PM
P/E Ratio:
16.23
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.93
P/E ratio is -41.89% lower than main peers & is -39.05% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $153.93
PM is -38.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $92.88
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $73.25
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.64
Price to sales ratio is -1.01% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-17.86
Price to free cash flow: 12.49
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
15.00%
Net income growth rate is -162.20% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 20.60%
Dividend yeild: 5.29%
Previous Dividend: $1.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.25
Previous Dividend: $5.00
Expected next dividend best case: $1.28
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.22
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.67%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/09/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/06/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$1.25
2021-12-22--$1.25
2021-06-24--$1.20
2022-03-23--$1.25
2021-09-28--$1.25
2021-03-19--$1.20
Dividend growth rate is -81.82% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-237.86%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-244.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
57.55%
Net debt to assets ratio:
59.27%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -48.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
28.87
Interest coverage ratio is 44.18% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-11.83%
Annual debt growth is 42% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.627
Statistical significance of correlation:
PM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.577
Stock price is 8.53% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.577
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.053
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.057
Kurtosis
9.377
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.93
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
269%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
40.64%
Operating profit margin is 92.76% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
269%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.39%
Effective tax rate is -25.10% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-93.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is -190.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
22.70%
Return on assets (ROA) is 54.34% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.4x
Current Ratio:
0.92
Current ratio is -98.00% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-121.2
Cash conversion cycle is -268.08% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
453.5K
Each employee generates -77% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
194.6K
Each employee generates -66% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
136.1K
Each employee generates -57% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.8K
Each employee generates -95% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
330.6K
Each employee generates -95% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PM
UNILEVER PLC (XNYS:UL)
THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC. (XNYS:EL)
DIAGEO PLC (XNYS:DEO)
Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (XNYS:BUD)
Altria Group, Inc. (XNYS:MO)
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO P.L.C. (XNYS:BTI)
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY (XNYS:CL)
DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION (XNYS:DG)
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC. (XNAS:KDP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�29%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
31.57B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
10.36B
21.20B
-
1.86B
10.15B
5.95B
- 1719000.00K
8.43B
-
469.00M
1.01B
13.54B
12.83B
9.47B
12.12B
2.59B
9.47B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
253.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 1699000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 928000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
100.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.12B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 20000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
4.62B
-
4.62B
4.42B
8.68B
1.00B
18.72B
6.00B
6.63B
2.79B
4.31B
694.00M
2.58B
23.01B
-
41.73B
3.20B
5.34B
6.52B
-
11.88B
20.42B
24.02B
4.75B
29.52B
-
49.94B
-
33.47B
- 9760000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
18.80B
- 10098000.00K
39.84B
-
29.36B
24.7B
-
- 176000.00K
- 196000.00K
- 496000.00K
-
- 209000.00K
- 1952000.00K
1.96B
- 701000.00K
- 95000.00K
126.00M
4.63B
4.50B
1.12B
- 229000.00K
889.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$99.09
$136.27
$142.14
$148.26
$154.65