_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Phibro Animal Health Corporation (XNAS:PAHC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PAHC
Name:
PHIBRO ANIMAL HEALTH CORPORATION (XNAS:PAHC)
Sector:
- 3628.00K
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. Jack Bendheim
Total Employees:
1,860
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2629.93% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PHIBRO ANIMAL HEALTH CORPORATION(PAHC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.54
One Month Price Target:
$14.59
Six Month Price Target :
$14.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.1
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.66
This week:
$12.58
This month :
$10.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
593.78M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
40.50M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.76%
-19.79%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.61
$16.77
$10.47
$12.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.17
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.78
$12.90
$13.30
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PAHC
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.37%
Comparison:
PAHC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -249.94% lower than the industry
& is -159.95% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PAHC
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.16%
Monthly returns:
-0.62%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -152.47% below industry average
Classification:
PAHC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
PAHC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.92%
Weekly Volatility:
6.53%
Monthly Volatility:
13.06%
Yearly Volatility:
45.23%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.63%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 24.19% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.03%
Weekly VaR:
-13.48%
Monthly VaR:
-26.95%
How Much Can the price of
PAHC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-93.37%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.02
This translates to price declining to:
$0.96
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PAHC is a 90.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 62.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -22.36% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PAHC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.438
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.619
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.238
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.708
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.783
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.246
Beta is -54.26% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is -45.93% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.60%
Sustainable growth rate is -54.72% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.145
Alpha is -478.51% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -923% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PAHC
Equity cost of capital:
0.071
Equity cost of capital is -31.98% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.94%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.14%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.14%
WACC is -41.37% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.40
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.52
Annual revenue growth rate is -99.56% below industry average
EPS:
$1.45
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.75%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -103.18% lower than the Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.99%
Equity growth rate per share is 204.54% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$10.40
EBITDA per share
$3.16
Valuation Analysis Today of
PAHC
P/E Ratio:
11.99
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
82.73
P/E ratio is -85.51% lower than main peers & is -70.00% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $57.94
PAHC is -74.91% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $49.24
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.81
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.65
Price to sales ratio is -90.83% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.52
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 217.17% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-16.80%
Net income growth rate is -96.93% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.26%
Dividend yeild: 3.30%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.48
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 22/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.12
2021-11-23--$0.12
2021-06-01--$0.12
2022-03-01--$0.12
2021-08-31--$0.12
2021-03-02--$0.12
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
180.52%
Net debt to equity ratio:
170.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.38%
Net debt to assets ratio:
47.56%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -2.25% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.78
Interest coverage ratio is 55.14% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.89%
Annual debt growth is -41% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 14.75%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.499
Statistical significance of correlation:
PAHC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is 22.28% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.004
Kurtosis
7.646
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.142
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PAHC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
122%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.29%
Operating profit margin is -124.67% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
122%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.70%
Effective tax rate is 74.37% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.21%
Return on equity (ROE) is -353.41% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.03%
Return on assets (ROA) is -288.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
3.27
Current ratio is -0.82% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
44.8
Cash conversion cycle is -70.38% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
487.8K
Each employee generates -42% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
68.8K
Each employee generates -27% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
31.6K
Each employee generates -69% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.0K
Each employee generates -97% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
181.4K
Each employee generates -97% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PAHC
MIMEDX GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MDXG)
RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RYTM)
OMEROS CORPORATION (XNAS:OMER)
THE PENNANT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PNTG)
TACTILE SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:TCMD)
QUINCE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:QNCX)
DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNAS:DVAX)
RENALYTIX PLC (XNAS:RNLX)
HUMANIGEN, INC. (XNAS:HGEN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Sell
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
907.27M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
630.47M
276.80M
-
-
201.55M
-
-
201.55M
492.00K
11.87M
40.00M
127.95M
75.26M
58.81M
76.08M
17.27M
58.81M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.85M
Differed Income Tax :
- 31.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 12909.00K
Accounts Receivables:
4.37M
Other Working Capital:
346.04M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.37M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.82M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 32000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
41.18M
56.00M
97.18M
140.64M
221.31M
39.50M
498.63M
184.52M
52.68M
60.13M
10.81M
9.45M
19.83M
337.41M
-
836.04M
66.81M
17.66M
4.71M
-
68.13M
152.59M
421.16M
21.69M
450.15M
-
602.74M
4.00K
219.69M
- 122191.0K
135.80M
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
832.02M
233.31M
836.04M
66.81M
438.82M
397.6M
19.00M
- 7666.00K
- 20666.00K
- 72875.00K
-
-
- 4860.00K
86.00M
8.27M
- 457.00K
- 9037.00K
41.18M
50.21M
3.82M
- 7449.00K
- 3628.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PAHC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.18
$45.18
$46.91
$48.71
$50.58