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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pg&E Corporation (XNYS:PCG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PCG
Name:
PG&E CORPORATION (XNYS:PCG)
Sector:
- 649000.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Electric
CEO:
Mr. William Johnson
Total Employees:
26,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -4.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PG&E CORPORATION(PCG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED ELECTRIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
12.55
One Month Price Target:
$12.63
Six Month Price Target :
$13.03
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.52
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$12.49
Price Upper limit ($) :
$12.63
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$11.69
This week:
$10.62
This month :
$8.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
30.18B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
2.47B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.19%
-24.75%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.56
$14.72
$8.54
$10.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.73
$10.97
$11.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PCG
Sharpe Ratio:
1.59%
Comparison:
PCG, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 35.38% higher than the industry
& is -30.41% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PCG
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.25%
Yearly returns:
7.85%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 91.28% above industry average
Classification:
PCG, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
PCG has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.39%
Weekly Volatility:
7.57%
Monthly Volatility:
15.14%
Yearly Volatility:
52.45%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.85%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.89%
Weekly VaR:
-15.41%
Monthly VaR:
-30.81%
How Much Can the price of
PCG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.22
This translates to price declining to:
$1.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PCG is a 117.49% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 86.32% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 66.84% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PCG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.15
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.818
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.157
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.561
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.834
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.971
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.476
Beta is 141.50% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.5
Beta is 130.16% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.62%
Sustainable growth rate is -82.22% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.040
Alpha is 212.41% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 254% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PCG
Equity cost of capital:
0.110
Equity cost of capital is 67.78% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
14.97%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.82%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.02%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.02%
WACC is 48.10% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.45
Annual revenue growth rate is 3989.80% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.10
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-84.89%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1272.67% higher than the Utilities�Regulated Electric industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$16.17
EBITDA per share
$2.64
Valuation Analysis Today of
PCG
P/E Ratio:
162.92
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.75
P/E ratio is 532.77% higher than main peers & is 488.42% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $2.77
PCG is 353.26% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.42
Price to sales ratio is -50.94% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.45
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-99.47%
Net income growth rate is 3277.01% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
186.34%
Net debt to equity ratio:
196.03%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
40.35%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -38.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.03
Interest coverage ratio is 56.71% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.48%
Annual debt growth is -105% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.518
Statistical significance of correlation:
PCG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.597
Stock price is -13.26% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.597
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.062
Kurtosis
13.769
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.016
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PCG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.74%
Operating profit margin is -16.32% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Effective Tax Rate:
114.14%
Effective tax rate is 466.86% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
1.25%
Return on equity (ROE) is -86.27% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.26%
Return on assets (ROA) is -88.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.63
Current ratio is -73.82% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
34
Cash conversion cycle is -64.05% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
835.5K
Each employee generates -70% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
250.2K
Each employee generates -78% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
10.3K
Each employee generates -97% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 25.0K
Each employee generates -24% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.6M
Each employee generates -24% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PCG
EDISON INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:EIX)
CONSOLIDATED EDISON, INC. (XNYS:ED)
WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC. (XNYS:WEC)
FIRSTENERGY CORP. (XNYS:FE)
AMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:AWK)
DTE
AMEREN CORPORATION (XNYS:AEE)
PPL CORPORATION (XNYS:PPL)
ENTERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:ETR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�29%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
21.72B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
15.52B
6.20B
-
-
-
-
7.78B
7.78B
26.00M
1.61B
3.49B
6.50B
2.12B
267.00M
997.00M
1.14B
267.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
972.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 16000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
40.00M
Accounts Receivables:
543.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 6184000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
187.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.66B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 447000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
247.00M
-
247.00M
2.91B
589.00M
6.63B
10.38B
72.64B
-
-
-
-
20.91B
93.56B
-
103.93B
-
2.32B
-
-
14.24B
16.56B
39.86B
22.70B
65.73B
131.71B
82.54B
34.73B
- 8867000.00K
- 20000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
23.30B
21.39B
103.93B
-
42.18B
41.9B
421.00M
- 2304000.00K
- 2330000.00K
- 7000.00K
-
-
-
645.00M
638.00M
-
- 31000.00K
-
165.00M
1.66B
- 2310000.00K
- 649000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PCG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$13.59
$9.87
$10.63
$11.46
$12.34