_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pfizer Inc. (XNYS:PFE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PFE
Name:
PFIZER INC. (XNYS:PFE)
Sector:
5.90B
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�General
CEO:
Dr. Albert Bourla
Total Employees:
79,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -200.73% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PFIZER INC.(PFE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�GENERAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
45.7
One Month Price Target:
$45.88
Six Month Price Target :
$46.76
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.81
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$45.58
Price Upper limit ($) :
$45.87
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.93
This week:
$41.73
This month :
$37.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
257.05B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
5.61B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.86%
-7.73%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.93
$50.13
$37.47
$41.27
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$48.90
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.09
$42.49
$43.31
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PFE
Sharpe Ratio:
2.25%
Comparison:
PFE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 15.05% higher than the industry
& is -1.07% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PFE
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.04%
Yearly returns:
11.30%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 10.48% above industry average
Classification:
PFE, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.91
Statistical test of Returns:
PFE has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.92%
Weekly Volatility:
4.28%
Monthly Volatility:
8.57%
Yearly Volatility:
29.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 19.71% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.88%
Weekly VaR:
-8.68%
Monthly VaR:
-17.36%
How Much Can the price of
PFE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-60.14%
This translates to price declining to:
$38.96
This translates to price declining to:
$18.22
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PFE is a 22.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 4.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.94% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PFE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.69
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.496
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.701
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.498
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.383
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.563
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.602
Beta is 14.40% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.492
Beta is 40.03% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.97%
Sustainable growth rate is -73.04% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.046
Alpha is -3.41% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 294% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PFE
Equity cost of capital:
0.079
Equity cost of capital is 20.69% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.68%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.65%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.88%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.88%
WACC is 41.47% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.1
Annual revenue growth rate is 154.81% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.36
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.41%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -671.13% lower than the Drug Manufacturers�General industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.67
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 14.71%
Equity growth rate per share is -36.49% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.13
EBITDA per share
$5.99
Valuation Analysis Today of
PFE
P/E Ratio:
8.81
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
78.18
P/E ratio is -88.73% lower than main peers & is -51.30% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $78.86
PFE is -42.05% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $38.77
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $23.53
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.78
Price to sales ratio is -25.24% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.1
Price to free cash flow: 8.06
Price to free cash flow ratio is -3.37% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
106.60%
Net income growth rate is -19.70% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.01%
Dividend yeild: 3.46%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.58
Expected next dividend best case: $0.41
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.39
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.39
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.08%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.40
2021-11-04--$0.39
2021-05-06--$0.39
2022-01-27--$0.40
2021-07-29--$0.39
2021-01-28--$0.39
Dividend growth rate is -85.63% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
41.75%
Net debt to equity ratio:
39.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
17.72%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.51% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
26.28
Interest coverage ratio is -38.69% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.42%
Annual debt growth is -175% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.47%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.473
Statistical significance of correlation:
PFE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is -8.62% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.032
Kurtosis
3.938
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.401
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PFE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
242%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.59%
Operating profit margin is 27.06% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
242%
Effective Tax Rate:
8.01%
Effective tax rate is -23.45% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
30.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is -69.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.58%
Return on assets (ROA) is 30.72% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.39
Current ratio is -1.62% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
12
Cash conversion cycle is -87.92% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 14.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.34%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates 3% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
425.5K
Each employee generates 8% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
316.0K
Each employee generates 43% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
74.7K
Each employee generates 8% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates 8% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 47.04%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 103.12% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PFE
ELI LILLY AND COMPANY (XNYS:LLY)
ABBOTT LABORATORIES (XNYS:ABT)
THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC. (XNYS:TMO)
Novo Nordisk A/S (XNYS:NVO)
DANAHER CORPORATION (XNYS:DHR)
MERCK & CO., INC. (XNYS:MRK)
Novartis Inc. (XNYS:NVS)
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED (XNYS:UNH)
ASTRAZENECA PLC (XNAS:AZN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�46%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/3/22
Revenue:
92.37B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
36.60B
55.77B
14.12B
-
12.51B
-
3.66B
30.29B
52.00M
1.28B
5.15B
33.62B
25.48B
24.97B
27.68B
2.22B
24.97B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.19B
Differed Income Tax :
- 2321000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
86.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 730000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
440.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
6.54B
Investments in PP&E:
- 643000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 6225000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 9434000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/3/22
2022
Q1
2.47B
21.43B
23.90B
16.34B
9.98B
4.20B
54.42B
15.11B
50.21B
29.82B
20.74B
5.67B
7.88B
129.42B
258.84B
183.84B
5.51B
636.00M
3.18B
3.11B
30.02B
39.27B
34.42B
26.82B
61.89B
-
101.16B
476.00M
111.19B
- 6157000.0K
-
April 3, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
66.89B
82.42B
183.58B
42.16B
35.05B
32.6B
16.88B
- 13000.00K
567.00M
- 1609000.00K
-
- 2000000.00K
- 2249000.00K
- 720000.00K
- 6578000.00K
- 1000.00K
530.00M
2.51B
1.98B
6.54B
- 643000.00K
5.90B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PFE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$48.05
$50.27
$52.60
$55.03
$57.58