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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Petmed Express, Inc. (XNAS:PETS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PETS
Name:
PETMED EXPRESS, INC. (XNAS:PETS)
Sector:
- 899.00K
Industry:
Pharmaceutical Retailers
CEO:
Mr. Menderes Akdag
Total Employees:
212
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PETMED EXPRESS, INC.(PETS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PHARMACEUTICAL RETAILERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
20.69
One Month Price Target:
$20.76
Six Month Price Target :
$21.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.51
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$20.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$20.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$18.83
This week:
$16.52
This month :
$12.36
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
433.31M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
21.01M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
58.39%
-28.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.34
$25.37
$12.04
$16.01
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.23
$17.29
$18.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PETS
Sharpe Ratio:
1.55%
Comparison:
PETS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -490.04% lower than the industry
& is -32.00% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PETS
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.39%
Monthly returns:
1.55%
Yearly returns:
3.83%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 385.49% above industry average
Classification:
PETS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.63
Statistical test of Returns:
PETS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.42%
Weekly Volatility:
9.89%
Monthly Volatility:
19.78%
Yearly Volatility:
68.51%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.85%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.81% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.01%
Weekly VaR:
-20.14%
Monthly VaR:
-40.27%
How Much Can the price of
PETS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-35%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$13.50
This translates to price declining to:
$3.10
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PETS is a 184.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 143.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 31.21% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PETS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.468
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.661
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.513
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.577
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.537
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.847
Beta is -30.17% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.605
Beta is -2.30% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.114
Alpha is -427.99% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 724% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PETS
Equity cost of capital:
0.072
Equity cost of capital is -1.31% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.25%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.1
Annual revenue growth rate is -2.98% below industry average
EPS:
$1.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-16.53%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -1534.22% lower than the Pharmaceutical Retailers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.84
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 31.71%
Equity growth rate per share is 65.75% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$1.42
Valuation Analysis Today of
PETS
P/E Ratio:
21.63
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.74
P/E ratio is 101.43% higher than main peers & is 50.08% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $14.99
PETS is 38.01% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $35.78
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $19.82
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.59
Price to sales ratio is 44.35% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.1
Price to free cash flow: 24.64
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-16.75%
Net income growth rate is -43.01% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 28.59%
Dividend yeild: 5.80%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.20
Expected next dividend best case: $0.31
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.29
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.29
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.08%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/09/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$0.30
2021-11-05--$0.30
2021-05-13--$0.30
2022-02-04--$0.30
2021-08-05--$0.30
2021-01-29--$0.28
Dividend growth rate is -212.34% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
19.54%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-79.65%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-64.50%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -61.39% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
325.01
Interest coverage ratio is 6047.41% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.223
Statistical significance of correlation:
PETS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.374
Stock price is -40.46% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.374
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.085
Kurtosis
53.141
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
3.381
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PETS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.40%
Operating profit margin is 30.34% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.06%
Effective tax rate is 15.49% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.03%
Return on equity (ROE) is -42.34% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is 9.28% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
4.62
Current ratio is 47.31% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-26
Cash conversion cycle is -162.57% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 24.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.40%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates 32% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
141.0K
Each employee generates 52% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
99.5K
Each employee generates 58% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.2K
Each employee generates 710% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
123.3K
Each employee generates 710% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PETS
SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:SIGA)
CHIMERIX, INC. (XNAS:CMRX)
DECIPHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:DCPH)
ProQR Therapeutics NV (XNAS:PRQR)
Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc. (XNAS:MNMD)
LEXICON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:LXRX)
PHATHOM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:PHAT)
Molecular Partners Ltd (XNAS:MOLN)
KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:KPTI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
273.42M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
195.34M
78.08M
-
30.83M
49.63M
18.80M
2.74M
52.37M
335.00K
92.00K
2.74M
29.90M
25.71M
21.10M
27.07M
5.97M
21.10M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
647.00K
Differed Income Tax :
- 167.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
718.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 6077.00K
Accounts Receivables:
396.00K
Other Working Capital:
115.32M
Other Non-Cash Items:
29.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 422.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 477.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
111.79M
-
111.79M
2.16M
29.17M
4.06M
147.18M
25.28M
-
-
-
-
-
26.14M
-
173.32M
24.71M
-
569.00K
-
7.15M
31.86M
-
-
1.11M
-
32.98M
20.00K
132.49M
-
7.83M
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
247.71M
140.35M
173.32M
-
-
- 111786.0K
-
-
- 477.00K
-
-
-
- 6033.00K
-
- 6033.00K
-
- 6932.00K
111.79M
118.72M
- 422.00K
- 477.00K
- 899.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PETS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$20.47
$21.28
$22.13
$23.01
$23.92