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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Petiq, Inc. (XNAS:PETQ) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PETQ
Name:
PETIQ, INC. (XNAS:PETQ)
Sector:
- 51058.00K
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. McCord Christensen
Total Employees:
1,929
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2869.90% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PETIQ, INC.(PETQ) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
8.68
One Month Price Target:
$8.75
Six Month Price Target :
$9.12
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.57
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.62
Price Upper limit ($) :
$8.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$7.98
This week:
$7.12
This month :
$5.56
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
295.65M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
29.57M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.03%
-21.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.93
$10.47
$5.43
$6.89
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$9.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.68
$7.37
$7.68
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PETQ
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.18%
Comparison:
PETQ, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -339.02% lower than the industry
& is -195.57% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PETQ
Daily returns:
-0.08%
Weekly returns:
-0.38%
Monthly returns:
-1.51%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -227.95% below industry average
Classification:
PETQ, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
PETQ has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.88%
Weekly Volatility:
8.68%
Monthly Volatility:
17.36%
Yearly Volatility:
60.14%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.43%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.17% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.05%
Weekly VaR:
-18.00%
Monthly VaR:
-35.99%
How Much Can the price of
PETQ
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.84
This translates to price declining to:
$1.30
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PETQ is a 154.02% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 117.62% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.23% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PETQ
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.52
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.954
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.349
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.433
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.081
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.072
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.375
Beta is 10.93% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is 44.69% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.318
Alpha is -928.98% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2022% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PETQ
Equity cost of capital:
0.136
Equity cost of capital is 31.12% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.86%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.15%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.07%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.07%
WACC is 10.16% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$32.26
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -96.22% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.51
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.78%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -83.90% lower than the Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.23
-
-
Debt per share
$16.55
EBITDA per share
$1.72
Valuation Analysis Today of
PETQ
P/E Ratio:
127.89
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.02
P/E ratio is 508.43% higher than main peers & is 220.04% higher than the industry
-
PETQ is -142.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.27
Price to sales ratio is -96.20% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.98
Price to free cash flow: 37.52
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1144.67%
Net income growth rate is -308.93% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
189.04%
Net debt to equity ratio:
174.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
52.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
48.98%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 2.72% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.96
Interest coverage ratio is -71.77% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
32.14%
Annual debt growth is 388% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.27%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.523
Statistical significance of correlation:
PETQ has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is 28.01% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.045
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.101
Kurtosis
7.898
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.025
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PETQ
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
82%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.90%
Operating profit margin is -105.66% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
82%
Effective Tax Rate:
-33.48%
Effective tax rate is -357.13% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-5.74%
Return on equity (ROE) is -42.26% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.61%
Return on assets (ROA) is -56.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
2.35
Current ratio is -28.59% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
Cash conversion cycle is -99.98% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-25.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
494.5K
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
26.4K
Each employee generates -72% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 7.7K
Each employee generates -108% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 26.5K
Each employee generates -54% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
267.7K
Each employee generates -54% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PETQ
BIOATLA, INC. (XNAS:BCAB)
ANTARES PHARMA, INC. (XNAS:ATRS)
NAUTILUS BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:NAUT)
Pharming Group NV (XNAS:PHAR)
RELMADA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:RLMD)
TALARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:TALS)
PERSONALIS, INC. (XNAS:PSNL)
Affimed NV (XNAS:AFMD)
Calliditas Therapeutics AB (XNAS:CALT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
953.88M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
757.65M
196.23M
-
129.85M
178.09M
-
-
178.09M
-
25.95M
35.92M
50.91M
18.14M
- 14869.00K
- 11694.00K
3.92M
- 14869.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.97M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.82M
Change in Working Capital :
- 61793.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 65026.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
464.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 45380.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5678.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
51.10M
-
51.10M
179.06M
167.71M
10.15M
408.02M
97.36M
230.97M
186.11M
-
-
1.97M
516.41M
-
924.43M
128.91M
14.46M
-
-
30.04M
173.42M
489.41M
451.00K
489.86M
-
663.28M
29.00K
- 111394.00K
- 1136.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
935.73M
258.90M
922.17M
-
503.87M
452.8M
-
-
- 5678.00K
- 16549.00K
-
-
-
39.41M
22.86M
- 107.00K
- 28302.00K
51.10M
79.41M
- 45380.00K
- 5678.00K
- 51058.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PETQ
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.60
$10.58
$11.67
$12.86
$14.18