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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Permian Resources Corporation (XNAS:PR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CDEV
Name:
PERMIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNAS:PR)
Sector:
75.98M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Mark Papa
Total Employees:
147
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -99.06% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PERMIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION(PR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.95
One Month Price Target:
$8.16
Six Month Price Target :
$9.23
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.5
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.88
Price Upper limit ($) :
$8.08
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.75
This week:
$5.27
This month :
$2.58
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.27B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
285.06M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
48.11%
-63.16%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.51
$10.91
$2.39
$4.99
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.51
$5.83
$6.39
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CDEV
Sharpe Ratio:
5.33%
Comparison:
CDEV, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 15.91% higher than the industry
& ratio is 133.70% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CDEV
Daily returns:
0.41%
Weekly returns:
2.05%
Monthly returns:
8.22%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 60.58% above industry average
Classification:
CDEV, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.76
Statistical test of Returns:
CDEV has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
7.55%
Weekly Volatility:
16.88%
Monthly Volatility:
33.76%
Yearly Volatility:
116.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.90%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.08% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-15.09%
Weekly VaR:
-33.75%
Monthly VaR:
-67.49%
How Much Can the price of
CDEV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-55%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.58
This translates to price declining to:
$1.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CDEV is a 376.35% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 308.09% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 41.41% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CDEV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--4.78
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.911
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.703
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
3.722
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.759
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.403
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
23.876
Beta is -79.99% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is 137.39% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.628
Alpha is 41.07% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3995% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CDEV
Equity cost of capital:
0.359
Equity cost of capital is 111.83% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
27.95%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.40%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.06%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.06%
WACC is 110.60% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.16
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.82
Annual revenue growth rate is -88.64% below industry average
EPS:
$0.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
95.74%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 197.04% higher than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.87
-
-
Debt per share
$2.86
EBITDA per share
$1.91
Valuation Analysis Today of
CDEV
P/E Ratio:
6.74
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
23.09
P/E ratio is -70.81% lower than main peers & is -84.00% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $20.21
CDEV is -60.67% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.91
Price to sales ratio is -61.15% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.82
Price to free cash flow: 9.10
Price to free cash flow ratio is -11.34% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-35.34%
Net income growth rate is -104.97% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
29.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
27.67%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
19.37%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -61.31% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.41
Interest coverage ratio is 31.25% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-21.35%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 16.40%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.217
Statistical significance of correlation:
CDEV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is -44.88% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.084
Kurtosis
12.543
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.069
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CDEV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
231%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
42.35%
Operating profit margin is -3178.15% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
231%
Effective Tax Rate:
3.75%
Effective tax rate is -81.06% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is -20.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.76%
Return on assets (ROA) is 107.25% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0.63
Current ratio is -68.36% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
35.4
Cash conversion cycle is -49.91% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
10.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
8.1M
Each employee generates 1% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
3.7M
Each employee generates 52% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates 207% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
516.9K
Each employee generates -661% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
25.6M
Each employee generates -661% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CDEV
VIPER ENERGY PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:VNOM)
WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:WFRD)
PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:PTEN)
HIGHPEAK ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:HPK)
XOG
RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:REGI)
TELLURIAN INC. (XNYS:TELL)
CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP. (XNAS:CLNE)
CHORD ENERGY CORPORATION (XNAS:CHRD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.18B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
492.80M
691.98M
-
115.40M
115.40M
-
89.11M
204.50M
-
52.32M
296.35M
544.64M
501.72M
188.62M
195.97M
7.35M
188.62M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
6.78M
Stock Based Compensation :
19.27M
Change in Working Capital :
- 43414.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 53824.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
161.69M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
160.12M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2980.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
50.62M
-
50.62M
131.84M
-
6.97M
189.43M
3.74B
-
-
-
-
27.32M
3.77B
-
3.96B
38.52M
1.73M
-
-
259.48M
299.73M
815.68M
63.22M
887.73M
-
1.19B
29.00K
- 246524.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
697.31M
2.77B
3.96B
-
817.40M
766.8M
-
- 81108.00K
- 84088.00K
- 160000.00K
-
-
-
125.21M
- 34788.00K
-
41.24M
51.18M
9.94M
160.12M
- 84136.00K
75.98M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CDEV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$13.57
$17.92
$23.68
$31.28
$41.32