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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Perficient, Inc. (XNAS:PRFT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PRFT
Name:
PERFICIENT, INC. (XNAS:PRFT)
Sector:
8.53M
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Davis
Total Employees:
6,079
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -92.08% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PERFICIENT, INC.(PRFT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
73.49
One Month Price Target:
$74.13
Six Month Price Target :
$77.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$81.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$73.16
Price Upper limit ($) :
$74.02
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$68.34
This week:
$61.98
This month :
$50.46
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.52B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
34.60M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
37.92%
-29.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.37
$86.29
$49.61
$60.69
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$82.68
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$80.32
$64.27
$66.66
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PRFT
Sharpe Ratio:
3.65%
Comparison:
PRFT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 101.63% higher than the industry
& ratio is 60.32% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PRFT
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.68%
Monthly returns:
2.72%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 126.01% above industry average
Classification:
PRFT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.42
Statistical test of Returns:
PRFT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.48%
Weekly Volatility:
7.78%
Monthly Volatility:
15.55%
Yearly Volatility:
53.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.01%
Weekly VaR:
-15.67%
Monthly VaR:
-31.34%
How Much Can the price of
PRFT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$54.27
This translates to price declining to:
$11.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PRFT is a 121.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 89.48% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 14.63% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PRFT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.083
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.532
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.773
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.167
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.98
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.522
Beta is 1.86% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is 28.29% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.76%
Sustainable growth rate is -90.76% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.189
Alpha is 527.18% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1200% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PRFT
Equity cost of capital:
0.138
Equity cost of capital is 20.49% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.87%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.92%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.51%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.51%
WACC is -4.62% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$23.52
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.4
Annual revenue growth rate is 196.75% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.84
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.33%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 145.47% higher than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.52
-
-
Debt per share
$11.98
EBITDA per share
$3.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
PRFT
P/E Ratio:
34.97
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
55.99
P/E ratio is -37.55% lower than main peers & is -26.34% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $87.34
PRFT is -15.86% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.12
Price to sales ratio is -14.43% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.4
Price to free cash flow: 29.18
Price to free cash flow ratio is 108.65% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
114.94%
Net income growth rate is -99.86% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
120.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
116.97%
Debt to assets ratio:
45.92%
Net debt to assets ratio:
44.51%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -27.63% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.22
Interest coverage ratio is -65.95% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
62.11%
Annual debt growth is 945% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.613
Statistical significance of correlation:
PRFT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is 2.85% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.045
Kurtosis
29.594
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.003
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PRFT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
154%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.73%
Operating profit margin is -312.19% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
154%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.65%
Effective tax rate is -36.94% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
19.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is -66.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is 8416.27% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
2.38
Current ratio is 2.61% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
64.9
Cash conversion cycle is 73.08% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
8.69%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
133.9K
Each employee generates -68% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
19.1K
Each employee generates -57% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
10.8K
Each employee generates 27% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.4K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
111.5K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PRFT
VELODYNE LIDAR, INC (XNAS:VLDR)
Himax Technologies, Inc. (XNAS:HIMX)
BTRS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:BTRS)
JPM GB GVESGLDBD UCITS A USD A (XLON:EGOV)
ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:UCTT)
PUBMATIC, INC. (XNAS:PUBM)
XPERI HOLDING CORPORATION (XNAS:XPER)
RAMBUS INC. (XNAS:RMBS)
CANADIAN SOLAR INC (XNAS:CSIQ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
813.80M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
501.27M
312.53M
-
41.70M
160.69M
-
29.19M
189.88M
-
8.16M
29.19M
116.10M
119.90M
65.63M
78.75M
13.11M
65.63M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.85M
Differed Income Tax :
4.09M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.71M
Change in Working Capital :
- 33236.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 8433.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 371.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
11.17M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2472.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 67.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
24.18M
-
24.18M
186.37M
-
14.59M
225.13M
46.32M
518.95M
76.53M
-
-
35.89M
677.69M
-
902.82M
22.24M
11.51M
-
7.85M
53.16M
94.76M
414.53M
15.92M
464.51M
-
559.27M
53.00K
301.01M
- 2037.0K
44.53M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
691.15M
343.55M
902.82M
-
426.04M
401.9M
-
- 175.00K
- 2714.00K
-
-
-
-
- 8706.00K
- 8706.00K
11.00K
- 235.00K
24.18M
24.41M
11.17M
- 2647.00K
8.53M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PRFT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$96.04
$106.05
$117.10
$129.30
$142.78