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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Perdoceo Education Corporation (XNAS:PRDO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PRDO
Name:
PERDOCEO EDUCATION CORPORATION (XNAS:PRDO)
Sector:
17.41M
Industry:
Education & Training Services
CEO:
Mr. Todd Nelson
Total Employees:
2,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -200.43% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PERDOCEO EDUCATION CORPORATION(PRDO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND EDUCATION & TRAINING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.26
One Month Price Target:
$11.33
Six Month Price Target :
$11.69
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$12.12
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.21
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.31
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.64
This week:
$9.87
This month :
$8.49
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
753.45M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
67.76M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.86%
-17.43%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.14
$12.84
$8.38
$9.68
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$12.41
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.13
$10.10
$10.39
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PRDO
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.28%
Comparison:
PRDO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 67.49% higher than the industry
& is -156.02% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PRDO
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.13%
Monthly returns:
-0.50%
Yearly returns:
-3.84%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 57.62% above industry average
Classification:
PRDO, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
PRDO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.67%
Weekly Volatility:
5.97%
Monthly Volatility:
11.93%
Yearly Volatility:
41.33%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.60%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -39.94% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.50%
Weekly VaR:
-12.31%
Monthly VaR:
-24.61%
How Much Can the price of
PRDO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-85.27%
This translates to price declining to:
$8.78
This translates to price declining to:
$1.66
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PRDO is a 73.73% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 48.83% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -23.49% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PRDO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.735
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.039
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.092
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.553
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.521
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.989
Beta is 14.37% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.833
Beta is 35.76% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.68%
Sustainable growth rate is -41.42% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.170
Alpha is 33.50% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1079% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PRDO
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is 23.04% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.17%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.71%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.71%
WACC is 47.26% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.22
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.12
Annual revenue growth rate is -8.82% below industry average
EPS:
$1.57
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.73%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -234.63% lower than the Education & Training Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.19
-
-
Debt per share
$0.50
EBITDA per share
$2.52
Valuation Analysis Today of
PRDO
P/E Ratio:
7.15
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
283.53
P/E ratio is -97.48% lower than main peers & is -32.45% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $16.63
PRDO is -32.28% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.1
Price to sales ratio is -55.67% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.12
Price to free cash flow: 5.13
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
97.48%
Net income growth rate is -306.89% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.98%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-21.87%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-17.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -91.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
186.5
Interest coverage ratio is 138.91% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-15.50%
Annual debt growth is -245% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.435
Statistical significance of correlation:
PRDO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.406
Stock price is 7.10% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.406
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.015
Kurtosis
6.206
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.695
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PRDO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
338%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.97%
Operating profit margin is 60.33% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
338%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.95%
Effective tax rate is -25.07% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is -15.88% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.15%
Return on assets (ROA) is 109.23% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
5.04
Current ratio is 48.25% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-13
Cash conversion cycle is -174.40% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
301.0K
Each employee generates 10% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
74.1K
Each employee generates 37% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
48.2K
Each employee generates 133% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.6K
Each employee generates -30% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
125.1K
Each employee generates -30% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PRDO
VITAL FARMS, INC. (XNAS:VITL)
Village Farms International, Inc. (XNAS:VFF)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCP)
SPARTANNASH COMPANY (XNAS:SPTN)
ABCD
THE ANDERSONS, INC. (XNAS:ANDE)
JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON, INC. (XNAS:JBSS)
CRESUD INC. (XNAS:CRESY)
AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:APEI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
692.36M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
107.86M
584.50M
-
237.19M
370.42M
133.23M
17.65M
388.07M
904.00K
914.00K
17.65M
170.46M
152.09M
110.96M
151.91M
40.94M
110.96M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.88M
Differed Income Tax :
986.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.42M
Change in Working Capital :
- 31923.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.72M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
22.15M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4742.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 7000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 194997.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
190.44M
307.62M
498.06M
42.95M
1.41M
13.79M
556.20M
62.49M
162.58M
30.54M
-
24.13M
7.88M
287.62M
-
843.83M
12.14M
8.36M
10.98M
39.11M
50.75M
110.35M
33.76M
21.34M
55.10M
-
165.45M
893.00K
284.05M
- 1541.0K
394.98M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
495.92M
678.38M
843.83M
-
42.11M
- 148331.0K
59.83M
-
- 146914.00K
-
659.00K
- 3828.00K
-
- 5596.00K
- 8765.00K
-
- 133525.00K
191.65M
325.18M
22.15M
- 4742.00K
17.41M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PRDO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$12.18
$150.23
$161.65
$173.95
$187.17