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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Peoples Bancorp Inc. (XNAS:PEBO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PEBO
Name:
PEOPLES BANCORP INC. (XNAS:PEBO)
Sector:
13.66M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Charles Sulerzyski
Total Employees:
1,261
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1734.72% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PEOPLES BANCORP INC.(PEBO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.89
One Month Price Target:
$30.04
Six Month Price Target :
$30.78
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$31.67
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.76
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.03
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.28
This week:
$26.3
This month :
$22.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
834.49M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
28.30M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.91%
-17.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.35
$33.95
$22.43
$25.83
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.84
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.11
$26.93
$27.67
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PEBO
Sharpe Ratio:
0.41%
Comparison:
PEBO, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -66.46% lower than the industry
& is -81.92% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PEBO
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.39%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -56.72% below industry average
Classification:
PEBO, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.77
Statistical test of Returns:
PEBO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.63%
Weekly Volatility:
5.88%
Monthly Volatility:
11.75%
Yearly Volatility:
40.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.75% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.38%
Weekly VaR:
-12.02%
Monthly VaR:
-24.05%
How Much Can the price of
PEBO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-83.30%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.60
This translates to price declining to:
$4.99
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PEBO is a 69.72% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 45.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -8.01% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PEBO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.644
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.91
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.804
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.54
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.888
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.986
Beta is -10.25% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -8.21% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.06%
Sustainable growth rate is -88.44% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.045
Alpha is -486.72% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -286% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PEBO
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is -5.56% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.38%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.76%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.13%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.13%
WACC is -20.42% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.86
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.05
Annual revenue growth rate is -23.74% below industry average
EPS:
$2.05
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-6.73%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -156.00% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.07
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 4.89%
Equity growth rate per share is -87.36% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$3.51
EBITDA per share
$3.23
Valuation Analysis Today of
PEBO
P/E Ratio:
12.36
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.3
P/E ratio is -49.13% lower than main peers & is -0.37% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $25.44
PEBO is 17.50% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $33.57
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.30
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.37
Price to sales ratio is -21.09% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.05
Price to free cash flow: 27.97
Price to free cash flow ratio is -56.41% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-0.62%
Net income growth rate is -101.13% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 18.69%
Dividend yeild: 4.88%
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.38
Previous Dividend: $1.46
Expected next dividend best case: $0.39
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.37
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.35
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.14%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 23/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 25/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.38
2021-11-05--$0.36
2021-04-30--$0.36
2022-02-04--$0.36
2021-07-30--$0.36
2021-02-05--$0.35
Dividend growth rate is -95.16% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
12.28%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-31.10%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.47%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.18% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.65
Interest coverage ratio is 822.49% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
103.69%
Annual debt growth is 32642% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 21.70%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.523
Statistical significance of correlation:
PEBO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 4.47% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.04
Kurtosis
7.577
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.145
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PEBO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
22.73%
Operating profit margin is -36.54% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
19.00%
Effective tax rate is -11.81% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.91%
Return on equity (ROE) is -42.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.77%
Return on assets (ROA) is -66.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
198.8K
Each employee generates -48% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
72.6K
Each employee generates -68% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
44.3K
Each employee generates -69% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
10.8K
Each employee generates -87% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.7M
Each employee generates -87% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PEBO
CMLF
HANMI FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:HAFC)
HINGHAM INSTITUTION FOR SAVINGS, THE (XNAS:HIFS)
VICKERS VANTAGE I UNT (XNAS:VCKAU)
Gores Holdings VII Inc (XNAS:GSEV)
MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:MSBI)
Calamos Glbl Dyn Inc (XNAS:CHW)
CNBKA
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
250.65M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
117.29M
121.04M
3.74M
-
-
203.09M
11.97M
10.58M
91.50M
56.97M
55.85M
68.95M
13.10M
55.85M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
15.71M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
15.71M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 81683.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 188976.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
405.68M
1.30B
1.71B
267.07M
-
-
-
89.89M
303.65M
38.21M
1.73B
-
-
2.16B
9.40B
7.24B
-
55.00M
-
-
-
55.00M
99.25M
-
99.25M
6.48B
6.43B
684.24M
220.48M
- 62667.0K
- 33713.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
808.34M
7.24B
3.03B
154.25M
- 251433.0K
69.49M
73.81M
- 127361.00K
- 27512.00K
282.00K
-
- 10438.00K
139.27M
101.60M
-
- 10048.00K
405.68M
415.73M
15.71M
- 2053.00K
13.66M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PEBO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$37.32
$39.54
$41.89
$44.38
$47.01