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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Penumbra, Inc. (XNYS:PEN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PEN
Name:
PENUMBRA, INC. (XNYS:PEN)
Sector:
- 9471.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Adam Elsesser
Total Employees:
3,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 331.14% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PENUMBRA, INC.(PEN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
165.03
One Month Price Target:
$165.64
Six Month Price Target :
$168.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$172.4
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$164.27
Price Upper limit ($) :
$165.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$154.8
This week:
$142.15
This month :
$119.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.22B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
37.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.55%
-15.86%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$212.51
$190.73
$117.55
$139.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$183.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$178.99
$146.36
$151.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PEN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.47%
Comparison:
PEN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -2.66% lower than the industry
& is -35.31% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PEN
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.07%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -16.01% below industry average
Classification:
PEN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.95
Statistical test of Returns:
PEN has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.05%
Weekly Volatility:
6.81%
Monthly Volatility:
13.62%
Yearly Volatility:
47.17%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.07%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.82% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.20%
Weekly VaR:
-13.86%
Monthly VaR:
-27.73%
How Much Can the price of
PEN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$125.58
This translates to price declining to:
$24.75
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PEN is a 95.70% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 67.66% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.01% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PEN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.66
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.96
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.358
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.625
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.907
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.645
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.948
Beta is -29.88% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is -37.56% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.04%
Sustainable growth rate is -61.34% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.052
Alpha is 5.71% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 331% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PEN
Equity cost of capital:
0.077
Equity cost of capital is -26.23% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.24%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-0.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
-0.02%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-0.02%
WACC is -17.48% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$20.65
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.52
Annual revenue growth rate is -84.81% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.17
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-53.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -561.75% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$5.50
EBITDA per share
-$0.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
PEN
P/E Ratio:
1255.95
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.64
P/E ratio is 3747.78% higher than main peers & is 415.69% higher than the industry
-
PEN is -498.60% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.99
Price to sales ratio is -14.13% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.52
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-25.37%
Net income growth rate is -126.12% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
21.74%
Net debt to equity ratio:
15.72%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
11.59%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -58.64% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
163.96
Interest coverage ratio is 1129.14% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
124.58%
Annual debt growth is -49% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.20%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.51
Statistical significance of correlation:
PEN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is 9.14% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.034
Kurtosis
3.619
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.236
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PEN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
251%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.20%
Operating profit margin is -81.28% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
251%
Effective Tax Rate:
70.70%
Effective tax rate is 28.73% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-0.67%
Return on equity (ROE) is -93.12% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.50%
Return on assets (ROA) is -85.25% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
5.31
Current ratio is -17.92% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
134.5
Cash conversion cycle is 141.13% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-137.39%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
205.9K
Each employee generates -45% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 2.0K
Each employee generates -132% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1.7K
Each employee generates -94% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.5K
Each employee generates -82% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
160.9K
Each employee generates -82% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 16.11%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -12382.52% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PEN
BAUSCH HEALTH COMPANIES INC. (XNYS:BHC)
Canopy Growth Corporation (XNAS:CGC)
Qiagen NV (XNYS:QGEN)
TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED (XNYS:TEVA)
DR.REDDY'S LABORATORIES LTD (XNYS:RDY)
CHEMED CORPORATION (XNYS:CHE)
GLOBUS MEDICAL, INC. (XNYS:GMED)
HOA BINH RUBBER JOINT STOCK COMPANY (XSTC:HRC)
ENVISTA HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNYS:NVST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
782.28M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
290.82M
491.46M
107.04M
-
409.43M
-
-
516.47M
458.00K
- 47.00K
18.66M
- 7706.00K
- 25010.00K
- 6473.00K
- 28073.00K
- 19849.00K
- 6473.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.73M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4378.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
8.89M
Change in Working Capital :
- 14415.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 8710.00K
Other Working Capital:
230.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 419.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 4514.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 4957.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
68.16M
172.18M
240.34M
143.42M
274.35M
32.22M
690.33M
272.77M
166.23M
88.47M
-
70.08M
13.69M
611.25M
-
1.30B
14.14M
10.43M
-
7.79M
97.74M
130.10M
208.56M
3.61M
212.17M
-
342.27M
38.00K
45.99M
- 5972.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
807.29M
959.30M
1.30B
-
218.99M
150.8M
20.67M
-
15.71M
- 425.00K
-
-
-
- 2216.00K
- 2641.00K
228.00K
8.78M
68.16M
59.38M
- 4514.00K
- 4957.00K
- 9471.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PEN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$125.37
$130.97
$136.82
$142.94
$149.32